NYT: State ballot initiatives on gay marriage could be "swing issue"

[DeepModem Mom]

Gay Marriage Becomes a Swing Issue With Pull
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK

Published: August 14, 2004

Supporters and opponents of same-sex marriage called this week's California Supreme Court decision nullifying San Francisco's marriage licenses a minor prelude to bigger battles at the ballot box. Both social conservatives and gay rights groups say their debate is becoming increasingly intertwined with the presidential election.

Social conservatives have argued for months that voters, not judges, should ultimately settle the issue of legal recognition for gay couples. They have organized to put constitutional amendments blocking same-sex marriages on the ballots in a dozen states this fall, including the pivotal swing states of Oregon, Michigan and Ohio.

And after the strong turnout in support of a similar measure in Missouri on Aug. 3, some conservative strategists said that the referendums could help President Bush by motivating traditionalists to vote. "It could well be what swings the election," said Grover Norquist, a strategist close to the Bush campaign....

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Of the three swing states where same-sex marriage amendments are likely to appear on the ballot, (Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who has worked for the Human Rights Campaign) argued, Ohio was the only one where it might make a difference. She argued that the amendment was not very popular in Oregon and that Mr. Kerry could carry Michigan by turning out voters among traditionally Democratic groups like union members and African-Americans.

"Ohio is a different story," Ms. Lake said. "It is very close and it could have an impact there."...


http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/14/national/14gays.html