Kerry's trend since 7/2: Electoral Vote, Pop Vote% and Win Probabilities

[TruthIsAll]

The State EV Simulation model shows a steady rise in EV, vote
% and Win Probability for Kerry since his convention speech on
7/29.

State Polling data for the model is from electoral-vote.com.

The assumption is that Kerry will get 60% of the
undecided/Nader/other vote. This is probably a conservative
estimate. Put it this way. If Kerry gets 2/3 of these voters,
he is a virtual lock (99.99%) to win. 

Due to the time lag inherent in state polling, any
"bounce" up or down from an event will not be
reflected immediately in the numbers. 

Again, this simulation model is based on the latest state
polls. National polls are not used.

Right now, Kerry is the overwhelming favorite. He has 51.97%,
334 EV and a 99.6% win probability. 

Only Diebold can beat him.



Kerry	EV	MA	Vote	MA	Prob	MA
7/2	316	316	51.42%	51.42%	99.4%	99.40%
7/4	311	313	51.15%	51.29%	98.3%	98.85%
7/7	308	312	51.31%	51.29%	96.9%	98.20%
7/8	309	309	51.37%	51.28%	96.1%	97.10%
7/10	304	307	51.37%	51.35%	97.4%	96.80%

7/12	306	306	51.29%	51.34%	98.1%	97.20%
7/13	305	305	51.52%	51.39%	98.5%	98.00%
7/14	328	313	52.05%	51.62%	99.6%	98.73%
7/15	325	319	51.94%	51.83%	99.3%	99.13%
7/17	327	326	52.00%	52.00%	99.7%	99.53%

7/20	324	325	51.83%	51.92%	99.4%	99.47%
7/21	333	328	51.93%	51.92%	99.2%	99.43%
7/24	328	328	52.08%	51.95%	99.8%	99.47%
7/26	309	323	51.83%	51.94%	98.3%	99.10%
7/28	314	317	51.80%	51.90%	98.1%	98.73%

7/29	312	311	51.68%	51.77%	96.5%	97.63% <the speech
7/30	315	314	51.63%	51.70%	98.6%	97.73%
8/2	316	314	51.73%	51.68%	98.4%	97.83%
8/3	319	317	51.72%	51.70%	99.4%	98.80%
8/4	313	316	51.79%	51.75%	99.0%	98.93%

8/6	305	313	51.78%	51.76%	95.6%	98.00%
8/7	318	312	51.90%	51.82%	99.8%	98.13%
8/10	320	314	52.03%	51.90%	99.7%	98.37%
8/12	320	319	52.01%	51.98%	99.7%	99.73%
8/13	334	325	51.97%	52.00%	99.6%	99.67%

Note: MA - three-day moving average.

[nodictators]

1. Even if these numbers hold up, Kerry has 3 major enemies:

The "News" media, election fraud, and overconfidence

"News" media

Just this morning, AP demonstrates how to promote Bush. Pew Research has a new comprehensive poll out today. AP chose to headline Bush's strongest suit:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040814/ap_on_el_pr/bush_kerry_poll&cid=694&ncid=716

Poll: Bush Tops Kerry As a Strong Leader

Sat Aug 14, 5:25 AM ET

By WILL LESTER, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - President Bush retains an advantage with voters on such qualities as decisiveness and strength of leadership despite the Democrats' effort to promote John Kerry as a strong leader, a poll this week finds.
<more>

Compare the above with the report on the Pew Research web site:

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=221

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press Survey Reports

Public Faults Bush on Economy - 55% Say Jobs are Scarce
Kerry Makes Gains on Issues, Bush Maintains Leadership Image Advantage

Released: August 12, 2004
Summary of Findings

With three months to go until the presidential election, the American public remains largely dissatisfied with economic conditions and with President Bush's stewardship of the economy. Two-thirds rate the national economy as "only fair" or "poor," while just one-third judge it to be "excellent" or "good." Accordingly, Bush gets low ratings for his handling of the economy: 42% approve, 52% disapprove. And by an increasing margin, voters express more confidence in the Democratic nominee, John Kerry, than in Bush to improve economic conditions. Kerry now leads Bush by a wide 52% to 37% margin on the economy, up from a 44% to 39% lead in March.
<more>

Well, AP can report the "news" as they see it. Unfortunately, most people will NOT go to the source of the poll data. Nor will many people realize that Bush's "leadership" may be taking them over the edge of a cliff.

So we are left with another "victory" for Bush in the media war against Democrats.