OK - This New "Bush is Toast" Media-Meme is Starting to Scare Me

[liberalpragmatist]

I've been guilty of this too. But I'm beginning to worry about the fact that on this site and most of the big-media pundits are starting to claim that this is Kerry's race to lose.

Why does this scare me?

Because it buys into overconfidence. We cannot get complacent! Just b/c previous presidents in Bush's circumstances lost doesn't mean Bush will - each election is the product of its own unique sets of circumstances.

Additionally, it is POSSIBLE that Bush could manage to run up Kerry's negatives up enough that undecideds don't break towards Kerry. That, as pointed out in an article on the New Republic Online, was what happened in the UK to the Labor Party who unexpectedly lost in 1992 after the Tories ran up Labor's negatives so high that voters decided reluctantly to stick with the Tories.

Now, the UK is a different country from the US and they have their own political trends, so perhaps it's an imprecise analogy. But many people I know strongly dislike Bush but aren't voting Kerry b/c they "don't trust him" or b/c they think he waffles.

Of course, Kerry's winning right now. But that doesn't mean he's going to win on Nov. 2. A lot could still happen. Let's stay confident, but let's not get complacent. And let's pretend that we're 5 points behind.

ALSO, Kerry in previous races has always been said to be worst when nursing a slight lead and best when nipping at an opponent's heels. Another reason to pretend we're slightly behind.

[aquart]

1. Cripes, now we'll get George the Wonder Underdog.

[grasswire]

3. Tweety mentioned that...

...the other night as a possible scenario. Scrappy George, working his way back against all odds.

[iconoclastic cat]

2. You are going to go bald doing that to yourself.

Stop worrying like that. The energy that you are using here to freak yourself out would be better spent doing something that makes you feel empowered.

[jeff30997]

4. You say that a lot could still happen.

My thoughts exactly.I'm afraid that these bastards have plenty of tricks up their sleeves.It's not over until November.

[Tarheelhombre]

5. We worry if they say we are behind, we worry if they say we are ahead

I would rather be in the position of worrying because we are ahead than the opposite.

[Raenelle]

10. And, as Bartcop asks, what would an evil person do to hang on to power?

:scared:

[Feanorcurufinwe]

6. Well, I've believed for a long time that we will win

and I don't think it's made me complacent. Determined is more like it.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

7. Wait for RNC Big Bounce and Nov. 2 before getting overconfident . . . nt

[DaveinMD]

8. don't worry

about pundits. Just keep working and doing your part to help us win. That's all that matters.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

9. We Dems are priceless. We worry if they say shrub is unbeatable.

We worry more if they say Kerry is unbeatable!

I understand the worries completely. But I, personally, prefer them to say shrub will lose, all legitimate concerns about complacency nonwithstanding.

It has the potential to reinforce our momentum and shrub's slide. A lot of people who follow this loosely (shrub supporters) still think he's in a little trouble but has it basically in the bag. They don't see the huge Kerry crowds. They only hear about the occasional Gallup/CNN poll that has their boy up.

When they start to repeatedly hear and understand that their boy is losing/going to lose, it may discourage many of them from even coming out to vote and make shrub's repudiation that much greater.

[Paragon]

11. You mean this?

:D

[AP]

12. They're playing the hand they're dealt. Only hope is to cast him as come-

back kid.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

13. Simultaneously,

people write that calling Bush the leader is a media conspriacy because it masks the polls, and calling Kerry the leader is a media conspiracy because it leads to overconfidence.

Could we please only wear one tin foil hat at a time?

There is no conspiracy -- the media doesn't care who wins as long as they have an angle. The current angle is "Can Bush come back?" It'll last a week and then they'll need a fresh hook. Don't worry about it -- it's just infotainment.

Stay active, keep organizing, convince people one on one, and get the vote out. Everything else is masturbation.

[tritsofme]

14. Richard Nixon once said

That you should campaign like you are a million votes behind, and hope you win by one.

Say what you will about the man, but those words ring true in every campaign.

[pa28]

15. Overconfident?

Throw in Ralph Nader. BBV (Florida Republican party admits it's unreliable). Republican willingness to challenge and overturn close states (remember New Mexico) and a court system willing to assist. Media bias and terror alerts to create fear and apathy on election day (low turnout). Add it up and a seven point lead in the polls means little. This needs to be balls-out to the finish line and no looking back.

[SoCalDem]

16. The media is just trying to make HIM the "underdog"..the "outsider"

they DO love a contest.. That's why the polls are so ridiculous.. As long as they spin it as "close"....people will pay attention..

It's all a big smoke screen..

Lies and spin...

propaganda and more lies...

bread and circuses...