Prognosticators: Prognosticate for Illinois Senate race

[Bucky]

Poll question: Prognosticators: Prognosticate for Illinois Senate race

Right now Mr Keys ain't doing too good in the polls. He's down in the latest opinion poll by about 68% to 29% against that smart, local guy.

That means he's not even getting all of the diehard Republicans in the state signing on with him, which should give him at least 35% "floor" of support. But will that change? At first I figured it would have to. You just don't hear about open senate seat elections in which one of the two major candidates can't even break 40%. I mean, even Massachusetts Republicans and Wyoming Democrats can at least break 40% for open seats.

But can Brother Alan?

[xray s]

1. Keyes got 29% against Barb Mikulski in 1992

I think Keyes will get less than that against Obama. Maybe 25%.

Obama may get 90% in the city of Chicago with a very high turnout. 80% in Cook County. Republican turnout down state will be depressed (and drinking heavily on election night...come to think of it, so will I, but my imbibing will be celebratory in nature!) :)

[Bucky]

2. True, but that was not an open seat.

[xray s]

3. no, it wasn't an open seat...

...but, on the other hand, Keyes actually was a resident of Maryland.

I really think the people of Illinois are going to send a very loud message to the Republican party that they are fed up with their incompetence. Even regular Republican voters, who are pissed that the other candidates in the primary didn't get the nod, will revolt.

The xtian fundie right is really not a factor here.

[Kahuna]

4. His attacks against Obama's heritage should be offensive with repukes..

and Democrats. I'm thinking the repukes are likely looking for a way to divorce themselves from Keyes.

[Walt Starr]

5. YOU READ IT HERE FIRST! Keyes 23%, Obama 72%, Kohn 4%

Obama in the biggest landlside in Illinois history.

[KharmaTrain]

6. The Repugnicans Natives Get More Restless...

The "euphoria" of Keyes by the party is vaporizing as Keyes continues to make a total ass out of himself.

The Repugnicans in my area aren't sure if they're more embarassed or pissed off. They like Keyes cause he's the anti-Obama, but they hate Keyes cause he was put on the ballot over their choices and the party hacks. Circular firing squad stuff.

The racists in the group (and just take a ride in the "countryside" and you'll find 'em) will be flocking to the Liberatarians (Walt...I say Kohn gets over 10%)...while many will either just stay home or bypass this disaster altogether.

RoveCo. is doing this just to make a bigger mess in the media. Keyes is getting way too much airtime for a candidate that is polling so poorly in this race. Would CNNservative offer the same time to a Democrat that far behind in their Senate contest? And the irony of this isn't being ignored deep down inside by the locals...if Mr. Rove isn't careful, his tinkering could destroy this party and blowback nationally after November.