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By the time a poll is conducted, gathered and analyized, the data is several days old. The best data one gathers from this type of research is where people were at at a particular date & time...and place. By putting this data with past surveys with identical or very similar methods, then you see trends from where you can make determinations about the future. One poll alone means little without being taken into a bigger picture.
Thinking Kerry's lead means victory in November, at this point is still extrememly premature, but the tracking of recent polls looks good. It seems like we've never had as many polls as before, and each one tauts a unique sampling or methodology (weighting of sampling)...we even have our own armchair pollsters here on DU. It just amplifies that polls and research are tools that show you were you were, not where you're going.
Likely voters are your "best bet" in getting a sample of who will show up on election day as opposed to "all voting age" (where over 50% still stay home) or "registered voters" (as those numbers are generally party partisans and miss out on the fluid "temporary" voters...ones who will vote this year and may not vote again until 2012).
While it's important to know who is sampled, I still haven't really seen the questions these people are being sampled with. I participate in Zogby's online polling and the qusetions this week (variable testers for certain) asked if I was on a "low carb" diet...to get a better profile of the electorate. But you won't see those questions, just the numbers...and that's all that count.
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