Federal Review Composite (8-17-03): Kerry 321, Bush 217

[phillybri]

http://www.federalreview.com/compositepoll.htm

KERRY LEADS, BUT ITS FAR FROM OVER
Bush 47.6% – 217 EV | Kerry 50.7% – 321 EV
EV without Toss Up states (under 2% margin): Bush 211| Kerry 291| Toss 36
August 17, 2004

Last week I wondered if it was time for the Bush campaign and its supporters to move on to other things. Electing Senators and Congressman. Anticipating the new season of Enterprise. Writing letters to NBC to replace the Bartlet Administration with Tom Selleck as a Republican president.

After all, Bush has now trailed in the Composite Poll every week since July 13 and has only led three times since May 18. And last week, Kerry had his biggest lead, at over 3.5 points. But some guy named Don reminds us on our comment pages: Dukakis was up 17 at this time in the election cycle. History tells us that Bushes gain 25 over Massachusetts paleoliberals from this time to election day. It's always nice to remember history and that Kerry was Dukakis' lieutenant governor.

So, what about history? Gerry Daly talks about Bush's lead over Gore in 2000 at this point between conventions, noting that in his analysis of state polling, Bush led in states worth 346 electoral votes. In case you forgot, it was a bit closer than that as Bush hauled in only 271. In this week's Federal Review analysis, Kerry is not doing as well as the challenger in 2000, with only 321 electoral votes.

(more)

P.S. As Kerry pads his stats, the conservative that runs this site is getting testier and testier! :hi:

[Walt Starr]

1. WAHOOOO, finally a map that gets the colors right!

Red is reserved for the challenging party. Blue is reserved for the incumbent party.

Methinks some freeper heads will explode when they start seeing blue in all the "wrong" states on a Tuesday night in November.

:evilgrin:

[phillybri]

4. Good point...unfortunately, I'm still used to Dem=Blue...

Oh well...

[Zynx]

2. Comparing it to 2000 or 1988 is BUNK and so are the rest of his proBush co

mments. Both of those cases had challenger versus challenger rather than incumbent versus challenger.

Also, he's wrong about the 2.6% second quarter GDP model because Gerry Ford got 3.4% growth that quarter and poppy got 3.8%. He's lying.

Also, Gallup is the only one showing him with more than 50% approval rating and Gallup is a BS outlier poll as we have proven before.

[billybob537]

3. This map should match up ptetty much

with the education map, blue being bad. As Clinton said " When people think We Win".