Can Democrats win back the Senate?

[PROGRESSIVE1]

I am concerned that if John Kerry does not have at least one house with him he will become a lame-duck President. I am concerned here.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. Kick

:kick:

[David Dunham]

2. Kerry just gave $3 mill to Senate Dems and $3 mill to House Dems

He will also campaign with them in the fall.

[mhollis]

3. A quote might help

Harry Truman said on his whistlestop campaign, which was derided by Dewey and the Republicans while he was running, "If you want to live like a Republican, vote Democrat!"

To shouts of "Give 'em hell, Harry!" he usually quipped, "I'll just tell the truth and they'll feel like it's hell."

[Old and In the Way]

4. It will be close.

I'm hoping if we can get within striking distance, 1 can pick off 1 or 2 moderate Republicans who want to atone for their sinful ways. It could happen.

I think it also depends on Kerry's mandate in the election. A landslide win will give him the moral authority to demand change and I think he will go after any Republicans who stand in his way. Give Kerry the beachhead and he'll be changing Congressional majority in 2006.

[liberalpragmatist]

5. Yes

I think we'll win in Colorado, Illinois (duh), Alaska, and Oklahoma. We'll probably lose SC but keep Florida, North Carolina, and Louisiana. I think Daschle will win in SD. So we'll lose 1 (well, 2 if you include Georgia) and pick up 4 for a net gain of 3(2): 51-49.

Then, if we can get Chaffee to switch - voila. 52-48, and we're quite secure.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

6. I also see Nancy Farmer in Missouri winning too.

She can pull it off.

[pmbryant]

7. It's a decent possibility

But I wouldn't be concerned about Kerry being a "lame duck" if Congress remains in GOP hands. Especially since we have the 2006 elections between now and Kerry's re-election bid.

Peter

[depakid]

16. The party in the whitehouse historically loses seats

in off year elections... so all the talk about waiting 2 years to take back the House and senate ought to be taken with a grain of salt, to say the least.

[pmbryant]

20. 1998 and 2002 didn't follow that pattern

So I see no reason to assume 2006 would.

Peter

[BillZBubb]

8. My Magic Eight Ball says...

It is not likely.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

9. why?

[welshTerrier2]

10. kerry's senate seat

kerry's senate seat is far from safe ...

yesterday's boston globe indicated Bill Weld has moved back to Massachusetts perhaps in preparation for a possible senate run ... and there's plenty of speculation that the totally hideous mitt romney might run for the seat as well ... either of these guys would be formidable opponents ...

the democratic competition? lots of names have been mentioned ... the most prominent are Ed Markey, Barney Frank, William Delahunt, Marty Meehan ...

this race would by no means be a lock for the democrats ... if the race would decide who controls the senate, i think it would help turn out many more democrats than would otherwise vote ...

[Bombtrack]

13. I think that black guy, Martin, is the likeliest GOP candidate

Kerry Healy might consider it, except the state has clearly shown an aversion to female candidates.

Anyway there's this popular DA named Martin who's supposed to be pretty formidable. However the sheer number of liberals and democrats will probably elect any democrat except perhaps Barney Frank.

I think we should go with Bill Delahunt. He's from the most republican district in the state, he's perhaps the biggest expert on both foreign relations and crime in the delegation, both issues dems are most vulnerable on, and he's been the hardest working one of the delegation on the house floor in regard to Bush's Iraq fuckups. You see him on C-SPAN all the time.

[West Coast Democrat]

14. MA voters won't vote Republican if control of the Senate is at stake

they're savvy.

[PaDem]

19. It'll be Marty Meehan

**

[Bombtrack]

11. I highly, highly, doubt it. I'd bet on repubs picking up FL, SC, and GA.

LA and NC we could lose, and we could not, and Alaska and Colorado are one's we might pickup, we might not. But the fact remains we're already behind by 3, and we only have 1 likely pickup, while they have 3 likely pickups.

[West Coast Democrat]

15. We have a good shot to pick up a number of new seats....

including Illinois (of course), Colorado (over 50% chance), Alaska (50-50 shot) and Oklahoma (50-50 shot). And if Kerry does better than expected in Pennsylvania, we have a shot at that too.

We also have an excellent shot at keeping North Carolina and Florida.

So, we're probably going to lose Georgia and possibly South Carolina (we have a 45% chance of winning)...but we may very well be in control despite losing a couple of states.

[Bombtrack]

17. where are you getting your numbers from. Pennsylvania is one we are never

going to win. It was common sense but a poll the other day showed over a 20 point gap. I haven't seen a clear indication that we have a better than 50/50 shot in Colorado. Republicans outnumber us big time and they will all be out pretty much because it's a presidential election. We have a better chance in Alaska, but that is probably a tossup. Oklahoma is doubtful. The stronger general election primary candidate won, and I think that sunk us to well below 50-50.

I agree about the fact that NC is in no way lossed, and according to the polls we'er favored, but trends would say that once Burr get's underway, he'll close the gap considerably. I do not think that Betty Castor can beat Mel Martinez. Penelas could have, I don't think she can. She's politically rusty, she's milquetoasty, and this Al-Arian issue, even if it's just smoke, will cost her votes.

[West Coast Democrat]

18. Campaignline Oddsmaker

the link is in my post below. It shows Oklahoma as a 50-50, Colorado better than 50-50. Pennsylvania is further off, with about a 54% chance of Specter winning.

This website is pretty accurate. I recall them declaring the Gore-Bush election as a toss-up for quite a long time leading up to the election. This was at the same time so many polls showed Bush with a lead of several points.

[West Coast Democrat]

12. According to Campaignline, the odds are 10 to 9...

in favor of the Republicans remaining in control of the Senate...that's a 52.8% chance.

In other words, we have an excellent shot at it!!

http://www.campaignline.com/oddsmaker/odds.cfm