7 Electoral Predictions -- Still very similar!

[DrMath]

316/211 -- Dales Electoral College Breakdown (R)
327/211 -- Election Projection 2004 (R)
317/202 -- Electoral Vote.com
321/217 -- Federal Review (R)
316/222 -- Electoral Expectations for 2004
317/221 -- Prof. Sam Wang (D)
318/207 -- Race 2004

So far, so good!
:toast:

[SonofMass]

1. This election is over.

[DrMath]

5. Unless...

...Bush saves the universe.

[RobertSeattle]

2. Pretty close to the magical 60% "Landslide" criteria

If Kerry get 60% of the electoral college you can spell it "mandate" and tell the GOP to go pound sand. One of the things that most pissed me off about Bush is acting like he had a mandate when he didn't even win the popular vote.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

23. Yeah, but he won a lot more acreage of land than Gore!

Or don't you read your right wing clone emails!?

[Comicstripper]

3. considering...

that
a) there are very few undecided voters
AND
b) voters who have decided are generally frimly supportive of their candidate
AND
c) independents historically vote overwhelmingly for the challenger

i think kerry will win with a moderate plurality.

[DrMath]

6. My thoughts exactly

I agree with everything you just said. All I'm worried about is a mass Democratic relaxation. Let's not stop fighting till the end!

[Poiuyt]

8. My thoughts exactly, too

but I'm worried about dirty tricks. You just know that they will raise the terror alert warnings again. I'm guessing a day or two before the election.

[DrMath]

9. Terror warnings, bleh!

I don't think anybody cares about those anymore. I don't know anyone who takes them seriously. Maybe he'll pull Osama out of his hat one of these days. That might be pretty bad.

[The Magistrate]

17. Beyond That, Doctor

There is good polling data out now that indicates the more worried people are about "terrorism," the more likely they are to vote for Sen. Kerry. Panic-mongering will work against the criminals of the '00 Coup over the next months....

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[DrMath]

18. Hmmmm

Do people get more worried or less worried about terrorism when they Bush starts terror alerts?

[phillybri]

4. Thanks for the list!

:kick:

[DrMath]

7. How many seconds would this last on FR?

Maybe 0.001. They kept on telling me that Bush was going to win by 500 EV and even had links to show it.

[MidwestTransplant]

10. Don't get too excited...a lot of Kerry's votes are very slight lean

in his favor. A small shift could easily turn a ton of them towards Bush.

[DrMath]

14. But it seems like

Seems like if that were true we would be noticing some more sporadic poll behavior. Everything just seems to be staying the same. What will it take to push them over the edge?

[Inland]

11. How can Bush stitch together an EC majority?

It looks like Bush is not going to be able to pick off a state or two to make a majority with his current support: he is going to need the five to ten point shift pretty much across the board.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

12. It's getting harder and harder for * to maintain the pretense of viability

Without a huge bounce from the RNC, it's hard to imagine how he could pull it off.

[DrMath]

15. I'm still scared though

I wouldn't put any trick past him.

Remember, don't relax until the end!

[MattNC]

13. i'm not getting my hopes up n/t

[DrMath]

16. I don't think anyone should

Probably not a safe thing to be doing -- we need to keep on fighting!

[DrMath]

19. NC poll

With the new North Carolina poll, http://www.spacerad.com/electoral/ changes from 316/222 to 319/219.

Cool, eh?

[oasis]

20. Optimistic kick

[canuckybee]

21. Is it just me

or is the federal review poll particularly sweet?

[kymar57]

22. Excellent work Dr

Thanks for compiling this for those of us with less time and computer search skills. :yourock: