Ohio -- from swing state leaning Bush to Kerry stronghold

[Brian_Expat]

Kerry is ahead in Ohio by a whopping 9 points.

http://2.004k.com/state/?s=Ohio

[liberalmuse]

1. Yes!

All my relatives up there are staunch Democrat--except for my fundie mother. However, my sister and I are working on getting her a job outside of any swing states before November.

[althecat]

2. Great website....

[richmwill]

3. If Kerry gets a substantial lead...

...in Ohio and Florida, it's all over :). I said waayy back before we even know who the nominee was going to be, that Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania would determine our next President. Whoever won 2 out of those 3 states would win the election. If Kerry can get "solid" in all 3, it is BEYOND over.

[MoonRiver]

4. OMG! Sane people rule in Ohio!!

:kick:

[Kukesa]

15. Why, thanx, saywhat!

We're trying, we really are.

We're going door-to-door, we're selling T-shirts, bumper stickers, and yard signs, we're staffing phone banks and registering voters.

I've replenished toilet paper at Dem HQ and I'll scrub the floors if need be.

I will not entertain the thought of losing this Buckeye state to the Repukes.

[MoonRiver]

17. Thank YOU, Kukesa!

I wish my meager efforts had a shred of a chance of bearing fruit here in Kansas. :(

P.S. Can't wait for the DU celebrations after November 2nd!! :party:

[iwantmycountryback]

25. Nice job

Of course I live in New York where it really wouldn't make much a difference to be an activist here, Kerry has this state easily. Of course I do live fairly close to Pensylvannia but I'm still in HS and can't even drive yet so I can't do much. And it seems Kerry is taking a solid lead there as well so I don't feel as guilty.

[Kukesa]

28. We need our young people!

I'm so impressed by your age and interest.

Keep the faith -- we'll pass the torch to you!

[DrFunkenstein]

5. Be Careful, Those Numbers Are Volatile

I'm an optimist, but clearly those numbers are erratic. This one is still a battle in my book.

[Walt Starr]

6. Absolutely

This just shows there is definite movement towards kerry in Ohio because Gallup has been so biased toward Bush.

[Zynx]

9. Gallup is simply inaccurate. I wouldn't be surprised if they showed Kerry

up 4 or 5 nationally next time they do a poll, then show Bush up by 8, then Kerry by 6, and so on.

[Kahuna]

19. We know. But this is still encouraging in view of the "bad" couple

of weeks we have gone through. When we can sustain relentless repuke attacks and have numbers like this, it is encouraging. Of course we never lose sight of the ruthlessness of the enemy. I was talking to my mother this evening about these results. I told her that * has tried terra alerts to practically no avail. I fear that all he has left is to actually attack America. :tinfoilhat:

[Guaranteed]

23. Yup, I saw that. They're all over the place. nt

[janx]

7. Bri, did you see this at your link?

Tie Colorado 47-47-n-(4)


Also, I'm going to be in Europe on Nov. 2, and flying back on Nov. 3. I can't wait to see what I think will happen.

[blackcat77]

8. Three words -- Never trust Gallup nt

[hatrack]

10. 7 words - never trust Gallup, keep fighting like hell! nt

.

[Bombtrack]

11. Um, I think that's pretty clearly an outlier. I wouldn't put to much stock

in Kerry being outside the margin of error in a lead, until this is backed up by subsequent polls

Kerry stronghold? Please, that's an extremely naive assumption. There have been outlying Arizona polls showing Bush with an 8-10 point lead their, but that doesn't make it a Bush stronghold, because as a group the polls, if you look at their spacing and the results of the different firms, and the methodology of them, show something different.

Ohio is still a tossup in I think most political scientists opinions.

[VolcanoJen]

12. Well, Kerry's ahead 10 points among "registered voters..."

... but the caveat is that he's only ahead 2 points among "likely voters," and well within the margin of error.

CNN/USAToday/Gallup, among registered voters, MOE +/-4%, Aug 13-15

Kerry: 52%
Bush: 42%
Undecided: 6%

Among likely voters, it's much closer:

CNN/USAToday/Gallup, among likely voters, MOE +/-5%, Aug 13-15

Kerry: 48%
Bush: 46%
Undecided 6%

---

I'm excited about the results, which represent the first non-ARG poll in which Kerry polls ahead of Bush in Ohio. At any rate, Buckeyes like me need to keep up the hard work in registering new voters, and turning out old, wearly non-voting registered voters.

I do think, personally and unscientifically, that Conventional Wisdom doesn't mean shit in this election... all the more reason for me to feel confident about these results.

We can do it... and I have faith... and dammit, this poll makes me wanna HOLLER regardless!!!

[Zynx]

13. LATimes also showed Kerry ahead before as did Rasmussen.

[Kukesa]

16. "Registered" vs." Likely Voters?"

Tell ya what, Jen -- I'll email our national Kerry staff members down at Dayton HQ and see if I can get a better idea of what this means.

Call your mother!

[Kukesa]

24. Here's a message I received from Dem HQ

from one of our national campaign people when I questioned "Registered" vs. "Likely" voters:

"It's pretty simple. A registered voter is anyone over age 18 and who is a citizen of the United States who has registered to vote at the Board of Elections. A likely voter is a person who has a strong voter history. Someone who voted in the general, primary, special, and off-year elections. Kerry is ahead in polls that have registered voters but the gap narrows when it comes to likely voters because typically Democrats don't come out as often as Republicans do. (because they have to work, etc.) That is why it's important to engage yourself in voter contact by making phone calls and walking your precinct. The way we narrow the gap, or also called the margin of victory, is a three prong attack. 1.) Get more of your regular base supporters out to vote this time (those who said it doesn't matter if I vote this time) 2.) Persuade those who voted for Bush, Nader, independents or those who didn't vote to vote for Kerry. 3.)Get those who are new registered voters to get out and vote for our candidate. AND THATS EXACTLY WHAT WE ARE GOING TO DO AND THAT'S EXACTLY HOW WE ARE GOING TO WIN!!!!!!"

I LOVE this guy; it's such fun working for and with him.

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

14. read the CNN article linked at the site..do NOT be optimisitc !

This state is much closer than that site indicates .,...this is a VERY volatile political situation here in Ohio.

[Kukesa]

22. We've Just Begun To Fight, WHH! n/t

[RDANGELO]

18. This is one of the states which they ran the swift boat vet adds.

This indicates to me that it is having very little effect.

[indigo32]

20. watched a town hall meeting on CNN tonight in Ohio

they actually booed the Bush rep when he brought up No Child Left Behind.

[LonghornJack]

26. Any Other Reaction from the Undecideds?

I missed the CNN broadcast on the Ohio group.

Was there anything else interesting to report? Any pro-Kerry sentiment, maybe?

Thanks, indigo.

[michigandem2]

29. I caught some

there were some applauses for the Kerry side...I don't know...I hate CNN so I always watch very very closely--I just hated that guy that was talking for Bush..what was his name...ugghhh


Tad Devine did an okay job...I just hate CNN and I hate bush! LOL!

[Thrill]

21. Its hillarious that

a 9 point lead in favor of Kerry is considered a slight lead. But when Bush up places by 4. Its considered Bush stronghold

[Feanorcurufinwe]

27. Kerry's got the momentum in Ohio