Did no one watch Olbermann on the Swifty polling numbers?

[grasswire]

He quoted poll numbers showing that 27 percent of the independents polled said they are LESS LIKELY to vote for Kerry because of the swift boats smear ads.

Did ya get that?

Assuming the poll is statistically sound, there's the reason they're still running the ad.

Their meme is sticking. Al Gore is a liar. John Kerry inflicted his own wounds.

[NightOwwl]

1. Does that mean 73% are MORE LIKELY to vote for him? n/t

[farmbo]

7. No...73% remain undecided while Bush & Rove harvest 27%

Its time to get serious about the SwiftBoat Liars.

I would ask Rosseman to cut a tasteful ad...perhaps perched on a solitary stool before an American flag...telling the audience about that day in 1969. It worked in Iowa, it will work now...and its the truth.

MoveOn can and should continue to run the hard-hitting ad, but the campaign needs to wipe some of that Swiftboat mud off its face and (tastefully) fling it back.

[Bucky]

13. tastefully flinging it back

In principle, I agree. In practice, being tasteful is probably impossible. You can't jump down in the mud and stay clean. Fighting back is imperative. I've been against making the TANG stuff an issue up till now. Too negative a campaign will turn off "maybe" voters and reduce the election to a turn-out-the-base contest, which the Republicans would probably win. On the other hand, that sleazeball shit is sadly proving to be too effective. It's time to hit back.

In-your-face honest counterpoint commercials may stop the bleeding, but I'm thinking now it may be time to start talking about what the boy did in Alabama in the 70s. It's a debate they can't win, even if we can't exactly win from it either.

[farmbo]

16. Yes it can be done...tastefully

I would ask Rosseman to cut a tasteful ad...perhaps perched on a solitary stool before an American flag...telling the audience about that day in 1969. It worked in Iowa, it will work now...and its the truth.

PS...I would also hope that MoveOn would run their hard hitting ads on their dime.

[Julien Sorel]

17. Since when did "less likely" mean "definitely won't"?

[Cheesehead]

15. The results also showed that ~64% were skeptical

about the "honesty" of the ad. That says that while the 27% may have been less committed to Kerry after seeing the ad, up to 64% may have been more favorably inclined toward him or were at least unaffected. Olberman also said that 1.5% were less committed to Bush after seeing the ad. A very mixed bag of results and hardly definitive by my thinking.

[DaveinMD]

2. look in the internals

of any poll. These could be independents already supporting Shrub. Independents are not the same as undecideds.

[loathesomeshrub]

3. So 27 % of undecideds don't use their brain - they would probably

not have voted for Kerry anyway. That's such a small number - who cares.

[Proud liberal Kat]

4. I watched it....

it equaled out to be 49 voters in total, I don't see that as being a statistically significant amount (granted I am not a statistician). It also showed over 60% reacted suspiciously or skeptically. I still don't think in the long run these ads are going to do any harm overall for Kerry. For every idiot who would have voted for him and changed their minds due to this there will be two people who were wavering who will come to Kerry due to disliking the Repugs lies and negativity.
Kathy

[farmbo]

8. Forty nine votes in a 400 voter poll is HUGE...

...and exceeds the MOE in Ohio Wisconsin, Missouri, Florida...etc, etc.

Time for the campaign to re-think the conventional wisdom on this issue.

[bigtree]

18. What about the 60+% that are still leaning Kerry?

That's more huge. I don't think those who have bought into the swiftlies will be able to hang with them as they are becoming thoroughly discredited.

[autorank]

5. This is disturbing but

...after McCarthy was disgraced (Joseph), he still had the support of about 30% of Americans. These are the die hard morons. You are right, our side does have to do some serious ass-kicking. Let's hope they have a smart move coming.

[IndianaGreen]

9. There is a significant number of people that believe that Nixon

was hounded out of office. No one can convince them otherwise. Their minds are made up and they don't want to be confused with the fact. I believe that is a trait of the conservative "mind."

[Osama_Bin_Winnin]

6. No Shit

Negative works

[Feanorcurufinwe]

10. 'Assuming the poll is statistically sound' -- IT'S NOT

The poll sampled 1000 people, a more than adequate sample size, but to arrive at its conclusion about undecided voters, they had to rely on some VERY small subsamples. First, the poll looked only at those who were aware of the ad. That was about 58 percent, or a sample of about 580 people. That leaves a margin of error of about +/- 4 percent. Among this group, 19.4 said the ad made them more likely to vote for Kerry and 27.1 said less likely. This difference of 7.7 percentage points is just on the line for statistical significance.

Among undecided voters, the results are even more dicey. First, the poll doesn't say how many voters were undecided. Most polls have been showing very few undecided voters--10 to 15 percent. For sake of argument, let's say that in this sample, 15 percent of voters in a two-way race were undecided. That would give a subsample of only 150 undecided voters with a margin of error of about +/- 8 percent. Of these, only about 49 percent were aware of the add, leaving a sample of only 75 for a margin of error of +/- 11 percent. In this group, 29.9 percent said the ad made them less likely to vote for Kerry compared to only 11 percent who said it made them more likely. That difference of 18.9 points is outside of the margin of error.

In a 3-way race, only 38 percent of undecideds were aware of the add. If we again assume 150 undecided voters, that means only 57 were aware of the ad. That gives a margin of error of +/- 13 percent. In this group, 9.5 percent said the add madTe them more likely to vote for Kerry and 24.1 said less likely. That difference of 14.6 is also within the margin of error.

In summary, there's no statistically significant evidence that this ad has hurt Kerry.
http://polysigh.blogspot.com/2004/08/swift-boat-ad-poll.html

That doesn't even mention the question of what criteria this 'Republican polling and strategic consulting firm' used to determine who is a 'likely voter'.

[KittyWampus]

20. Arrow Pointing To Above Post Showing Statical Insignificance Of #'s Cited

the premise of the original post is completely flawed.

There is no statistical basis confirming this.

[buycitgo]

29. gettin tired of following this around?

glad you found that site, but will it matter?

as I said on that other one, if it gets play, they'll cite it in their favor

Faux news said this AM that it was a DEM polling firm

[Feanorcurufinwe]

32. Do you have a point?

Is your point that FAUX lies? That not exactly a groundbreaking discovery. I can't make head or tails out of the rest of your post. Could you put it more simply for me, please?

[Guaranteed]

11. To be fair- couldn't these 27% of independents be those

who were already going to vote for Bush?

[mzmolly]

12. I saw it. Republicans play dirty for a reason. I hope Kerry let's US do

what needs to be done. US = Moveon and other surrogates.

I say we paid for that Bush ad, let's run the damn thing! :hi:

[justgamma]

22. Kerry's counting on ads like Move-on's

He can take the high-road and we can keep attacking. I think Move-on gets it.

[mzmolly]

25. Moveon pulled the ad though?

Right away. Poof ... gone. :shrug:

[PretzelWarrior]

14. 27% of the independents. SO WHAT? in which states?

I really don't care about these numbers. I'm going with my gut--most Americans are turned off by that kind of wretched political dirt. If John F. Kerry and Mr. Edwards keep it positive and slam home how Kerry will serve resolutely to fight terror and regain the economic advantage of a technologically advanced society...I'm sure Kerry will win going away.

[farmbo]

19. Not "independents".."undecideds"

And I believe it was a national poll, albiet a small sample group.

[Nordic]

21. it worked against Cleland and McCain, why not against Kerry?

These guys will stoop to any new level of lowness.

They are scum. They are liars. They are criminal lowlifes.

[bigtree]

McCain was defeated by core republicans in a republican primary

Cleland was a state election.

[juajen]

43. Neither Cleland nor McCain have the "star power" of Kerry/Edwards

These guys get out the biggest crowds I've ever heard of for campaign rallies. They are very charismatic.

[KharmaTrain]

23. Sorry Kids...Damage Was Done

Little that can be done about it now, except hope these frauds are unmasked and that may debunk the story enough that a few of those who bought this story may change their minds.

The Kerry folks knew this was coming last Spring and let these assholes get a week of non-stop airtime with virtually no rebuttal or anyone coming out bringing to light the obvious conflicts and connections these goons had to the GOOP. Someone figured that since none of these goons were there, no one would believe them. No one took into account how well the ad was produced and how credible it looked. In a game where image is 10 times more important than substance, not refuting this either before the book came out or immediately thereafter let this story get out into the open and create impressions.

The question that isn't asked here is what percentage of those undecideds impressions of Bunnypants job performance and/or leadership abilities...that will tell you a lot more of how they feel.

Sadly, Kerry's military record now stands tarnished with rear-guard actions finally being done...too little, too late. As the saying goes...a rumor runs around the world, while the truth is getting dressed.

Let's hope these SwiftFreepers vanish or their individual stories are debunked, but this mean relying on our "friends in the media".

[bigtree]

24. I don't think folks give more weight to smears about Kerry's service

than they do to Bush's absense from duty, his lies on Iraq, and his mismanagement of the economy.

Kerry's exemplary military record tarnished by lies? Don't bet on it. One result of the smears is it draws attention to Bush's non-service and cheney's refusal to serve.

[KharmaTrain]

27. You're Preaching To A Choir...

I still run into people who believe 9/11 = Iraq = WMD and have heard nothing but right wing spin for the past decade. It doesn't take much for them to develop a negative image of a Democrat...and that scared RoveCo.

This was a campaign to snag some of these votes back...using lies and slime since they would get echoed in the papers, onto hate radio and onto the even food fight shows...it doesn't take long for a lie to be "accepted fact". It was expected here and no one contested it.

Letting RoveCo. get away with lies that run in the media without being refuted or the media chain exposed invited more and more of these attacks down the road. Be prepared.

[bigtree]

28. I don't see where they got away with anything

I think they are the ones preaching to their choir. I don't believe that swing voters were waiting for these tangential attacks to make up their mind about who they would support. I believe they are looking for which candidate has a credible plan to address their needs and concerns.

[KharmaTrain]

42. I Wish That Were Totally True

A vast majority are looking for these issues and have pretty much lined up which side they're on.

What is getting all the attention is that 20% in the middle that will swing one way or another and determine who wins the election. Yes, a good percentage of those people are independents and go with the specific issue and have no party allegience, but there's also a good number of voters who are truly undecided and can be swayed by intangibles that defy common sense.

These things drive researchers bonkers cause these people are so hard to classify or even study. They can't give you an explanation for a choice or make consistent decisions.

For advertisers these are the ones who suck up the trendy commercials or get influenced by silly endorsements or fall for catchy phrases or gimmicks. And, yes, these are the people who, while not a large number of voters, can be a 1% or more...that we've learned can make a big difference on election day.

[redstateblues]

26. If It's Sticking, How Do You Explain Kerry's Surge This Week

I think this is all part of a well coordinated PR campaign- There is nothing there- Just because Rat-face Joe repeats it every night doesn't make it true- Do you realize how small his audience is? Check out hackworth.com. He's been a right leaning pro military guy with a lot of influence with vets. I don't think the not so swift boaters slime is sticking.

[DaveSZ]

30. Run an ad with JIM RASSMANN telling his story

No brainer imo

[buycitgo]

31. damn, that's just about it

did you see the townhall of half dems half pugs and slightly more than half undecideds on CNN

hahahahah..........bushmatics!

they CLAPPED hard when an ahole asked a question unrelated to Vietnam, but PREFACED it with a spiel about how HE served there, but for MUCH longer than four months! the audience went up for grabs for a few seconds, showing very clearly that many people are having second thoughts about his record. that ad clearly has had an effect, if only as a CATALYST for pugs to spin NEW LIES off of it.

that's the scary part

also, the crowd BOOED Tucker Eskew, pugliar extraordinaire, when he tried to slide the Bush educational miracle past them

that, and other response, shows me the crowd was pretty impartial, and the strategerists might want to pay attention to both subjects

[Feanorcurufinwe]

34. Why ignore facts and emphasize spin based on your perceptions

of Paula Zahn's hand-picked audience?

The depth of your analysis consists of playing human applause meter?

[buycitgo]

35. what's YOUR problem?

jesus?

were you THERE?

did you see how she picked it?

did you watch it, genius?

the depth of your analysis consists of cutting and pasting

goodie for you

[buycitgo]

36. it's NOT a science, brainiac

these people go by audiences just like this, which had about 250 people

you can make lofty denigrations all you want, but there are people who will pay attention to this, as this sort of group isn't often assembled

you think Peter Hart is jacking off with his focus groups of about 12?

and spare me your wisdom about sampling methodology

[Feanorcurufinwe]

38. Whatever, the applause meter school of political analysis

doesn't need me to discredit it. Which, I guess, is why you didn't try to defend it.

[buycitgo]

39. OK

why do they use these meetings at all, then?

why do the likes of Hart and Rugboy use their focus groups?

give me your cut and paste-free analysis of the inexactitude of tonight's meeting

again, did you SEE it?

and I did respond to your cavalier putdown

edit ......time for reflection

[Feanorcurufinwe]

40. Yeah, I saw it.

why do they use these meetings at all, then?

CNN uses shows like this to sell advertising and programming.

why do the likes of Hart and Rugboy use their focus groups?

First of all, my objection was to your method of analysis - your impression of the auditory crowd reaction - rather than the concept of a focus group. I think a focus group has a role in adding a text, a narrative to the numbers that you get from polls, but that polls are more accurate at guaging popularity of ideas, people, etc.


Yeah, I saw it.

[buycitgo]

41. duhhhh......that's all these shows, except Fox are there for

EDIT on Fox explanation: profits are NOT their raison d'etre, of course

brilliant analysis, that, though on the ad selling

you don't think political operatives DON't use them to help judge the lay of the political landscape?

well, I know somebody that does, and he's running four congressional campaigns right now.

I know, what's his success rate. well, he wrote a book on recounts that impressed Gore enough to bring him to Florida for advice last time; advice that, had Gore followed, would have led to his victory (he wanted the statewide recount, vetoed by idiot Bill Daley).

But, then, what does he know?

what's WRONG with crowd reaction, btw? you think one side outapplauded the other? seemed quite indicative of various points of agreement/disagreement. so what if they didn't have meters to show their approval?

When you're not rich, you use what you can.

focus groups, as I'm sure you know are used to make the ADS you mention above, as well as fleshing out poll numbers.

no gripe with the idea that polls are generally more accurate, but these people most lkely had an interest in participating, so, perhaps their responses were more honestly expressed.

what practical way of evaluating this presentation is there, then?

my guess is that you'll see the dems come out soon with some strong indictment of Bush's education fiasco, as related in today's front page Chicago Tribune. As school starts across the country, LOTS of good schools have FAILED the idiotic testing regimen that demands they achieve certain standards in ALL categorical breakdowns.

If they're smart, they'll capitalize on this discontent.

[geek tragedy]

33. Fuck the Smearvets. Look at the overall polls.

Ads are running in: West Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio.

Kerry surging in: West Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio.

[DU GrovelBot]

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[Ghetto_Boy]

44. This poll means nothing... as do all polls right now