This is frustrating but it may come down to FL again

[fujiyama]

Kerry is competetive in some states I honestly wouldn't have expected him to be in. TN, AR, and Va are surprisingly close. CO is tied according to one poll. Kerry has slight leads in OH and is competetive in NV as well.

This is great, but Kerry hasn't the kind of lead in any of those states that he has in FL. The Q-Pac poll of FL is showing Kerry ahead by 7. This is a larger margin he's ahead in than MN. Looking at the trends it has become stronger for him since Feb.

I understand everyone's frustration over this state, but Kerry cannot and should not ignore the state in spite of the fraud factor. Kerry should fight like hell for this state. It has 27 EVs. They say a republican hasn't won without OH. Well, a republican can't win without FL. No way in hell.

This state doesn't seem like other southern states. There are reasons for it. Demographic shifts are the main one. Hispanics are leaving Bush in the state and I've heard that negative ads don't resonate as well wit Hispanic voters (because they're used to cynical attacks in their home countries). More people have moved there from northern states (most likely NY, NJ, PA, and other Kerry leaning states). TWhile I know there are conservative parts of the state (I think the panhandle is), I don't think the state is necessarily as socially conservative as others in the south and possibly OH as well. There are urban areas that should heavilly favor Kerry. Plus, there is a lot of anger and energy over what happened in '00. Kerry is not McBride.

[Cronus Protagonist]

1. Sure, if some of the Gore voters change their votes, right?

Let me look around. Nope. None of them have switched, but we've welcomed lots of prior Bush voters.

Same has happened in Florida, so it's the "switcheroo" vote that counts, not the pro-Kerry vote, and all the "switcherooing" has been one-way away from Bush, in a flood. Bush is going to lose handily in Florida.

SHOVE IT! - Drop Bush Not Bombs! - Hero Kerry AWOL Bush
http://brainbuttons.com/home.asp?stashid=13

[tedoll78]

2. Actually, I posted a theory earlier yesterday..

Lemme bounce it off of you..

It looks like the campaigns are focusing primarily on any state BUT Florida. Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nevada.. and especially Ohio. It's a striking contrast to 2000, when the media and the campaigns were all going on and on about how important Florida would be.

Now, we barely hear a peep about Florida, save for when a hurricane hits it.

Kerry's ahead there by an average of 6% in this month's polls. Pretty good, and he knows it. We're fired-up - he knows this. Undecideds go between 3-2 and 2-1 for the challenger; he also knows this.

So, my theory: Kerry, knowing all of this, seems to be trying a back-door strategy with Florida. Edwards has been there quite a bit, working the local media scenes. Advertising there has been moderate in volume. But we don't hear Kerry bragging about how he's going to win Florida. Could he be doing this to keep the focus on Florida below what it could be, so that the Bush camp won't act more stridently to hold onto its electoral votes?

Sure, the GOP convention will provide a minor bump, but Kerry will likely remain tied with Bush afterward in Florida. And considering the party energies and the undecideds, things still look good there. I wonder if he knows things are going well there, and he's just trying not to rock the boat..

[fujiyama]

3. It's funny

because all of the electoral vote projection sites have this state leaning toward Kerry and most of them are run by Bush supporters.

If it's a fair election in that state, I believe Kerry will win and by 3-5% at that.

[Guaranteed]

4. Florida would have put Gore WAY over 270...

whereas, when Bush "won" it, it just barely put him over the line...

That should tell us something.

We're doing alright. I dunno, though, I just can't see how Kerry is gonna keep winning if he doesn't fight back.

I need to start going to church or something LOL.

[comsymp]

5. God, I hope not

She's at it again-
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x635029

[Ghetto_Boy]

6. I think not, 60% of Floridians think the economy is good; Ohio

is the state Kerry has to take.

Like Lincoln said, "I hope God is on our side but I must have Kentucky"