Obama Surges Ahead

[Vyan]

You're not likely to hear this in the corporate media, but as of yesterday Obama has taken a massive lead on McCain in the one area that truly matters.

The Electoral College (via Electoral-Vote.com)

After finally moving ahead in Michigan, and following some corrections on Indiana, Barack Obama is turning five former Red States Blue and now has a 304 to 221 Electoral Vote Lead over John McCain.

The media would have you believe this is still a fairly close race. If you were to look at the various Gallup Polls between Obama and McCain.

Gallup says that Obama's General Election Numbers are only ahead of McCain by 6 points.

Gallup says that Obama's favorability is only 2 points ahead of McCain's.

Gallup says that Obama is also only leading with independents by 2 points.

But things get a little interesting when Gallup also says that there are clearly more Democrats than either Republicans or Independents

And that a higher percentage Independents apparently plan to Vote for Obama, than for McCain.

If you looked purely at these numbers you wouldn't really see anything all that impressive, but going back through the compilation of state-by-state electoral data that's been made available on Electoral-Vote.com and you get a very different picture.

When McCain secured the Republican nomination he held a significant lead over candidate Obama peaking at 324 to 205, but as Obama moved closer to nomination things became more competitive. Rev. Wrong, Bitter-gate and the Working Class White Voters of Kentucky clearly did some damage in early May, but on May 24th just two days after his win in the Oregon Primary, Obama took a 266 to 248 lead over McCain. This lead was extended on June 3rd after the final Democratic Primaries in Puerto Rico 287 to 227 and has held steady until now where he's moved ahead to 304 to 221.

Technically Electoral-Vote.com (whose main page has been down while I've been composing this post - possibly due to an overload after my last diary on them) is still behind on data for Virginia and has it listed as a tie. however, the underlying poll data shows that Survey USA puts Obama ahead in Virginia by 7 points as of May 18th (The data also shows that New Mexico is a tie!) If you then grant Obama those additional 13 Electoral Votes (and subtract 5 for New Mexico) his actual lead grows even further to 312 to 221 - 90 votes ahead of McCain and 40 Votes ahead of what he needs to become President.

Of course there are no guarantees that the map will continue to look this good for Obama - things could certainly change as they already have several times - but right now, I like the way the trend is looking.

Vyan

[Oregone]

1. Thats what she said.

Come again?

Thats what she said.

[hogwyld]

2. How in the hell can 14% of Dems

even consider voting for McLame???:wtf:

[thereismore]

4. That's the one thing that's hurting Obama. These so-called democrats. Get half of them back

and there is no contest.

[Zambero]

5. That number will shrink to single digits

Once disappointed Hillary supporters figure out what a McCain presidency and subsequent court appointments will do to reproductive rights, not to mention extending the Iraq War into perpetuity. At the same time the percent voter turnout for Democrats will be CONSIDERABLY higher than for Republicans. Much of McCain's "support" is less than enthusiastic, which translates into a problematic stay-at-home phenomena for the Republican ticket, top to bottom.

[Cha]

12. And the Environment..OUR Lonely

Planet and the Pollution Factor that seems to get forgotten except by Al Gore, of courseB-)

[TheWraith]

3. Remember, half or more of that polling was taken BEFORE Obama secured the nomination.

Virginia in particular, and a lot of other states, haven't been polled since Obama claimed the nom and Clinton dropped out, which is going to help his numbers.

[Douglas Carpenter]

6. Great Post!!!! Recommended!!

[phrigndumass]

7. Very nice narrative with the graphs :)

K/R for an impressive post!

[dtotire]

8. USA Election Polls has Obama 320 McCain 218

6/12/08
We have just updated 13 state matchup polls between Obama and McCain and of those 12 matched the previous state result... What flipped??? Michigan.
Michigan went from McCain's corner to Obama.. helping to extend Obama's electoral vote lead to over 100.
Here is what the presidential race would look like if it were to be held today, according to our estimations:
Barack Obama - 320
John McCain - 218
Michigan is a crucial state but so are so many other states... McCain could add Romney as a VP to help shore up Michigan but that would still put him about 70 EV behind


http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/

[papapi]

9. Virginia continues as the tie state. I can't wait to see this map with a. . .

big BLUE border around it. Lucky 13. WOO HOO!!!

[Phred42]

10. Careful of the Corpoate Reports -

It is The Corporate Media's job now to make this race APPEAR to be as close as they can fake it.

So in November it will be more believable when they steal it again

[vinylsolution]

11. Couldn't agree more, #10.

The thugs are not about to relinquish power in November. The fix IS already in.

The corporate media all work for The RNC, so their job is to create the illusion that John McLame is actually a serious competitor to President Elect Obama.

[diane in sf]

13. Thank you! Great info and analysis.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

14. HE WILL WIN CO, WI, MO, MI, and I sincerely believe that NC, GA, TN, VA are in play!

[Imagevision]

15. McBush himself will cause a landslide for Obama...