Contents:
1. Current Projections
2. Electoral Votes
3. Strength of Electoral Votes
4. Popular Vote
5. Probabilities and Potentials
6. Poll Averages Comparison
7. Projected Win Index
8. Links
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1. Current ProjectionsObama continues to expand his electoral college lead over McCain this week. His electoral vote count has jumped 14 since last Friday, by my projection. Polls also show Obama gaining another 500,000 votes since last Friday, climbing above 58 million for the first time in my projection, despite the entry into the race of Bob Barr and Ralph Nader. The strength of projection, or the percentage of electoral votes from good polls (those released within the last 35 days and showing less than 10% undecideds), increases 12.1% this week. This increase tells us that pollsters are catching up on polls and replacing old ones with updated ones.
Projected Electoral Votes:
Obama – 314
McCain – 224
Barr – 0
Nader – 0
Needed to Win – 270
Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 58,063,275 ... (45.7%)
McCain – 54,027,993 ... (42.6%)
Barr – 225,876 ... (0.2%)
Nader – 47,800 ... (0.0%)
Undecided/Other – 14,581,931 ... (11.5%)
Strength of Projection – 35.9%*********************************************************************
2. Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)
With only 270 electoral votes needed to win, Obama is currently projected to receive 277 electoral votes beyond the margin of error. If all of the swing states voted for McCain at this point, Obama would still have enough electoral votes to win the election. All three sources tracked (538.com, EV.com, and my own projection) show significant increases in Obama's electoral votes this week.
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PLEASE NOTE: This is not a prediction map. It is a map showing the states that are currently either polling or trading blue for Obama.*********************************************************************
3. Strength of Electoral VotesThe only real change in the strength of electoral votes this week is a small reduction of states within the margin of error and a slight increase of weak states leaning toward McCain.
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4. Popular VoteRalph Nader marks his entry into this year's popular vote count this week with a 6% projection in New Mexico. That comes to about 48,000 votes in New Mexico alone for Nader.
Both Obama and McCain show small increases in the popular vote projection this week, while the number of Undecideds fell one-half of one percent. It's interesting to see that Nader and Barr aren't affecting Obama's popular vote projection at all, while McCain's popular vote projection has fallen about 1.5% in the past few weeks.
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5. Probabilities and PotentialsThe difference between each candidate’s Potential Electoral Votes provides a keen insight into how they are doing against each other nationwide. Obama’s potential advantage this week is 67.8%, while McCain’s potential advantage is only 48.5% (less than a majority). The difference in potential advantages this week is Obama +19.3% (down from +21.8% last week).
Highly Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 178 (33.1%)
McCain – 115 (21.4%)
Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 277 (51.5%)
McCain – 173 (32.2%)
Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 365 (67.8%)
McCain – 173 (32.2%)
Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 277 (51.5%)
McCain – 261 (48.5%)
Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 423 (78.6%)
McCain – 115 (21.4%)
Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 178 (33.1%)
McCain – 360 (66.9%)
“Highly Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling at >10% (Strong states only). “Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling beyond the margin of error (Strong and Weak states).
“Potential” electoral votes are the same as probable states, but then we add the states polling within the margin of error to give one candidate an advantage. In this scenario, one candidate takes the states where they are polling strong and weak, and also takes all the margin-of-error states.
“Blowout” electoral votes would give one candidate only their strong states (>10%) and the other candidate would win all the other states. An example would be if Obama were to win in all his base states, all the swing states, and all the states where McCain was polling weak.*********************************************************************
6. Poll Averages ComparisonPoll Averages are good to use to compare our current candidate’s national standings with past Presidential campaigns. Keep in mind that a strong third-party candidate can throw a wrench in the mix (1992 and 1996).
Comparison of Poll-Averages:
2008 Obama – 45.1%
2004 Kerry – 46.5% (Final)
2000 Gore – 46.1% (Final)
1996 Clinton – 48.0% (Final)
1992 Clinton – 42.1% (Final)
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7. Obama Projected Win Index (greater than zero is a projected win for Obama)
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8. LinksRead Last Week’s EditionMonday’s Daily WidgetTuesday’s Daily WidgetWednesday’s Daily WidgetThursday’s Daily WidgetFriday’s Daily Widget.
Donate today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du.
Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.
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