Whoa!! Did Someone Just Post Wrong Numbers???

[ItsMyParty]

Be still my beating heart. Early this a.m. flipped on news and CNN ticker said that Kerry lead Bush in a poll (unspecified) in Ohio by 2% and stressed that this is all within the margin of error and we shouldn't worry our pretty little heads about poor Pres. Bush. Took a break a few minutes ago, flipped on CNN Headline News and their ticker said that USA/CNN/GALLUP showed Kerry with a 52 to 42 lead over Bush in Ohio!!! Did the ticker dude hit the wrong keys or what........oh, be still my beating heart. Anybody have any info on what's up here???

[htuttle]

1. They are both correct

Kerry is up by 2% in Ohio among 'likely voters', and up 10% among 'registered voters'. Which number is more important depends on what you think voter turnout will be, I suppose. I'm expecting a very heavy turnout, so I think the 'registered voters' number will end up being more accurate.

[wryter2000]

2. Two different samples

One's likely voters, and the other isn't. I think likely voters is the closer of the two. But that explains the difference.

[K8-EEE]

3. I Disagree -- There Will Be WAY More Turnout This Year

The problem with the "likely voters" scenario is they don't poll 18 - 21 year olds, because they are first time voters. I think they are going 3 to 1 for Kerry across the board, and nothing like a screwed-up war and bad job numbers to turn them out this time.

The GOP turned out in force last time -- but the Dems have the momentum now. Remember a lot of people who voted for GWB thought he was moderate, or they thought he was a fiscal conservative. They won't vote for him again.

[ItsMyParty]

6. I think young voters may have just that little extra incentive this

year on two fronts: 1) scared of draft and knowing this time there will not be college defferments; 2) a shity economy that means they either just got out of h.s. and can't find a job; or they are soon to graduate from college with a mit full of bills and no prospects. We have to really work the college campuses and hangouts of the young.

[bigtree]

10. Young voters moving away from Bush

Are local 18-30 year-old voters following the national trend toward Kerry?

Published Thursday, August 19, 2004
by Paige Stein
http://www.bocanews.com/index.php?src=news&prid=9301&category=Local%20News&PHPSESSID=a352b86a2ffb772f3fd1d3d96abe871b

Recent polls indicate that 18 to 30-year-old voters favor the Democratic ticket almost 2 to 1, according to an ABC news poll.

If young people voted in the same numbers as older Americans, John Kerry might be smiling all the way to the White House. Recent polls indicate that 18-30 year-old voters favor the Democratic ticket by fairly wide margins. In a recent Washington Post-ABC News poll, Kerry led Bush 2 to 1 among registered voters younger than 30. A poll by the Pew Center for the People & the Press released last week reported that the Kerry-Edwards ticket led the Bush-Cheney ticket by 18 percent among this age group. Among older voters, the race was virtually tied.

These numbers indicate a marked erosion in the support that Bush-Cheney received from younger voters in the 2000 presidential election when network exit polls found that Bush and Democrat Al Gore split the vote of 18-to-29-year-olds, with Gore claiming 48 percent and Bush getting 46 percent – the best showing by a Republican presidential candidate in more than a decade. About 1 in 6 voters in 2000 was between 18 and 29 years old.

“We’ve seen a lot of enthusiasm for the Kerry-Edwards ticket,” said Fred Dibean, Vice President of the Young Democrats of Palm Beach County. Dibean says he feels confident that this enthusiasm will translate into votes in November. “I think young people are concerned about a lot of the same issues that everybody else is – jobs, the economy, health care, the war in Iraq.”

[robodruid]

12. they were not there for the primaries

One of Dean's strengths was that he would energize the 18-21 year olds. That did not happen.
I don't think you can count on the young ones to show up in numbers significantly higher than average.

[ItsMyParty]

5. So 8% like Kerry but won't get off their duff to vote for him---

I doubt it. Maybe not all 8% will make the effort but all we need is about 3-4% to get motivated and Ohio is ours. We are a bit thin in this area though. Apparently the GOP has a massive ground organization, massively funded in these toss up states. They will be literally calling every person and banging on their door on election day. We have to match that organization OR John has to make people so mad at Bush that they don't need any assistance to get up off the couch and vote.

[critchmj]

4. No, you didn't hear wrong, either time.

I heard it this morning as well. The numbers with the 2% differential were among "likely voters."

[WLKjr]

7. According to one Research group, Kerry has a +3 spread among OH voters

Sorry for no link, I posted in a earlier thread that I cannot find now. I think the thread was titled "Am I reading this Correctly?"

[The Revolution]

8. I think turnout will be high.

At least I hope so. In 2000, there was a lot of voter apathy, I think. A lot of people didn't think it would make a difference who they voted for. I'm hoping a lot of people see how wrong they were, and see how important it is to get out and vote.

If we could have record turnout and a landslide victory for Kerry, that would just be too sweet. I'm really hoping that we pick up Ohio, Florida, and Missouri. And if we could get some of the southern states like Arkansas, North Carolina, etc. so much the better.

Just remember the neo-cons are planning on cheating. Getting our voters out is only half the battle.

[faithnotgreed]

9. hi revolution - welcome to du

[AmerDem]

11. Why are you spending so much time watching CNN?

I guess you don't read to many of the threads here at DU.