Swift boat liars helping Kerry

[59millionmorons]

Polls before Swift boat liars---

Strategic Vision* | 7/31-8/3 801 LV 3.0 49 44 2 Bush +5 -
Zogby Interactive | 7/26-7/30 1,571 LV 4.5 51.1 46.1 1.0 Bush +5.0 -
Zogby Interactive | 7/19-7/23 n/a 2.6 48.1 46.8 1.2 Bush +1.3 -
Columbus Dispatch| 7/14-23 3,047 RV 2.0 47 44 2 Bush +3 -


Polls after Swift boat liars--

Gallup(OH) Kerry 52-42

Kerry also leads in WV.

Thank You Swift boat liar's.

[yardwork]

1. I hope it's true.

There are a lot of veterans in Ohio and West Virginia. I hope that the majority of people see through these lying ads. It's often the other way around - the smear goes halfway around the world before the truth gets its pants on.

Maybe BushCo has finally gone too far.

[fertilizeonarbusto]

2. HAHAHAHAHAHA

BTW, Zell Miller yammering at the RNC will also help Kerry. IMHO, it certainly can't hurt.

[Vickers]

7. Yup, Zell will convert a few folks

They think they are so clever "Hey look, one of THEM is rooting for our guy!" but most folks will see Zell for what he is...a Democrat in name only, a coward Republican who lied to get votes.

Back on topic: I'm a veteran and guess who I'm voting for? That's right, the candidate who is actually a veteran!

[lancdem]

3. Where's the WV poll you're referring to?

[59millionmorons]

4. I found it here

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Click on WV.

[lancdem]

5. That poll was done before the smears

[yardwork]

11. The WV poll was done July 30, but the OH poll was 8-13

and its a Gallup poll, which tend to lean right, I've noticed.

I hope this means that OH is easing into safe Kerry territory. There are a lot of veterans in OH.

[Cha]

6. This must be eating rover alive!

What other explaination is there? You know they must be running these filthy ads in the schwing states..hmmm?

[Manix]

8. ...hope your right..comments today in talkingpointsmemo.com

re: Slate article, are a little worrisome...hope Kerry people hit back hard!

[Feanorcurufinwe]

14. Weisberg cites the same flawed GOP poll as everyone else.

The poll sampled 1000 people, a more than adequate sample size, but to arrive at its conclusion about undecided voters, they had to rely on some VERY small subsamples. First, the poll looked only at those who were aware of the ad. That was about 58 percent, or a sample of about 580 people. That leaves a margin of error of about +/- 4 percent. Among this group, 19.4 said the ad made them more likely to vote for Kerry and 27.1 said less likely. This difference of 7.7 percentage points is just on the line for statistical significance.

Among undecided voters, the results are even more dicey. First, the poll doesn't say how many voters were undecided. Most polls have been showing very few undecided voters--10 to 15 percent. For sake of argument, let's say that in this sample, 15 percent of voters in a two-way race were undecided. That would give a subsample of only 150 undecided voters with a margin of error of about +/- 8 percent. Of these, only about 49 percent were aware of the add, leaving a sample of only 75 for a margin of error of +/- 11 percent. In this group, 29.9 percent said the ad made them less likely to vote for Kerry compared to only 11 percent who said it made them more likely. That difference of 18.9 points is outside of the margin of error.

In a 3-way race, only 38 percent of undecideds were aware of the add. If we again assume 150 undecided voters, that means only 57 were aware of the ad. That gives a margin of error of +/- 13 percent. In this group, 9.5 percent said the add madTe them more likely to vote for Kerry and 24.1 said less likely. That difference of 14.6 is also within the margin of error.

In summary, there's no statistically significant evidence that this ad has hurt Kerry.
http://polysigh.blogspot.com/2004/08/swift-boat-ad-poll.html

That doesn't even mention the question of what criteria this 'Republican polling and strategic consulting firm' used to determine who is a 'likely voter'.

[59millionmorons]

15. NY Post

The NY Post is pushing this. You know the same NY Post who told us it would be Gephardt.

[aden_nak]

9. For once, negative ads actually might be backfiring.

It'd be one thing if they had, you know, any proof at all. . . but they dug their own grave on this one. "We don't have SHIT on Kerry, so let's just say that the military was fraudulently giving him medals. That couldn't possibly ipss off any vets, right?"

[Misunderestimator]

10. Even the Gallup Poll is 52 / 42

and just after I heard that on CNN yesterday, they quickly added that Gallup THEN worked on the numbers to determine who of those likely voters would actually vote and came up with 49 / 46... :wtf: in the first place, they are polling LIKELY VOTERS... what part of LIKELY and VOTE do they not understand? Unfreakingbelievable, that they can take such incredible poll numbers and spin them anyway.

CNN sucks.

[MidwestTransplant]

12. It's not helping....it may be hurting but probably not by too much

I think it's slowing Kerry's momentum.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

13. The post you responded to cited FACTS. What are you citing?

[Lex]

16. I think it's not.

I think that nobody believes *anything* the Bush Adminstration says, except the stupidest freeper 'morans' there are out there.

And nothing can be done to teach them to walk upright at this point.