Yikes! Kerry 49 Bush 46 in California

[Tony_FLADEM]

<http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/CA040819pressen.pdf>

:eyes:



Edit:

I found an explanation for the above poll (too many republicans in the sample)

<http://www.dalythoughts.com/ca/ca.htm>

[59millionmorons]

1. Sure

eyes rolling

[Rose Siding]

2. Well that sucks

[Kierkegaard]

3. Not happenin'

:eyes:

[bossfish]

4. Cali is safe, I'm pretty sure...

[Doosh]

5. where the fuck did that come from?

I just saw a recent poll that had us up by 10+ in Cali???


wtf?

[buycitgo]

8. deep mole hole?

and Texas is 46-45 Bush

[drdigi420]

6. I smell BS

Help a bruddah out, buy a t-shirt!

[buycitgo]

11. how many did I buy?

[jjmalonejr]

7. PUH-Leeeez

[Kadie]

9. Kerry had a 16 point lead a couple of days ago in another poll.

Maybe in this poll they only interviewed republicans.

[Democat]

27. Here is the poll from three days ago with Kerry up by 16%

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2004/08/16/state2044EDT0177.DTL

[Yupster]

10. Happens once in a while

Out of hundreds of polls, they'll be a few that are just out of the normal range. It happens every cycle.

[bringbackfdr]

13. Right, Shrub will take California ...

But Kerry will take Texas.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Their Likely Voter Model Has 37% Dems And 40% Repeublicans....

Dems hold a huge registration advantage over Republicans in Cali...


I know Republicans are more likely to vote but not that much more likely to vote...


They also show Bush getting 28% of the African American vote....

[rumguy]

33. Good catch

The poll is worthless.

[David Dunham]

41. The poll does not say this info.

[DaveinMD]

12. if you believe this poll

I've got a bridge to sell you.

[WindRavenX]

45. damn skippy

The likelihood of Bush winning CA is almost as likely as the Red Sox winning the WS

[Eric J in MN]

14. They must have weighted the poll in a screwy way (nt)

nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. look up (nt)

[mitchtv]

15. yeah it's in the bag

take California for granted-always a smart idea

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. I Think We Should All Take A Hot Bath And Slit Our Wrists

nt

[fujiyama]

36. I was thinkin of posting this earlier

but I didn't want to take away from the CBS poll and the "OMG The swiftboats are killing Kerry" theme.

SUSA is strange because they had another poll showing Kerry with a one point lead, though a few months later they corrected themselves and had it within the normal 10-12 point range.

It's obvious this poll is off, but hey maybe if we act like we're worried about the state Bush will do what he did last time and spend money there!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. Do you Believe That 28% OF Cali African Americans Will Vote For Bush

When He Is Polling <10% nationwide


and that more Reps than Dems will show up at the polls when Dems have a huge registration advantage....

[JI7]

42. nobody is taking California for granted

kerry is ahead in the polls. i'm glad the campaign is not so reactionary to polls as some on du are. there are many polls and most have kerry ahead. they also have their own internal polls.

republicans release polls every once in a while trying to make things look closer and to try to get the democrats to waste money in states they already have. they did this in 2000 and tried to get gore to spend here. and of course he was smart not to do it.

this was teh case with that new jersey poll which showed kerry and bush almost tied.

i'm in california and i don't want them spending any money here they don't have to.

[buycitgo]

18. clearly a dem sandbag poll, designed to lure

the idiot king into spending $$$$ there

that's it!

that's the ticket

[elperromagico]

19. How many times has this been said?

If a poll result doesn't seem to fit with the other poll results, wait for the next poll. If the results aren't similar to the "odd" poll, then you've got an outlier on your hands.

Or, if you wish to be extreme, you can take Dem_Strategist's advice and just ignore polls altogether.

[rumguy]

20. Kerry is ahead and that's all that matters

This is the outlier, other polls show Kerry further ahead.

Kerry is ahead and will win California, relax.

He's solidly ahead in Ohio. He's solidly ahead in Pennsylvania. He's almost to the point of locking down Michigan.

And the icing on the cake is that the chimp is looking shaky as hell in Florida!

[Feanorcurufinwe]

21. The Field poll is usually the most accurate for CA

http://www.electoral-vote.com/pastpolls.html#California

[Democat]

25. That website you link to is missing the latest California poll

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2004/08/16/state2044EDT0177.DTL

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. Bingo- That Stupid Poll Has Bush Getting 28% of the African American Vote

NT

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Bingo- Kerry's Up By Larger Margins In FL and PN...

That poll doesn't make any sense....


More Pukes than Dems in the sample and Bush is getting 28% of the African American vote in Cali while getting less than 10% nationwide...

[buycitgo]

29. if you have a chance, see if there's a rerun of the CSPAN II

seminar on polls, focus groups, adbuys, with some Jordan guy from ACT, a female media buyer for Bush, Jake Tapper, and some reporter from New Republic

very interesting, revelatory, particularly the admittance by reporters of how LAZY they've become

[Democat]

23. The headline of the "poll" reads like a Republican advertisement

Bush and Jones Making Noise

The fact that they show Jones close to Boxer proves the results are fake.

Here is a real poll:

Democrat John Kerry has opened up a 16 percentage-point lead over President Bush in California, his candidacy boosted by strong support from independents, Hispanics and women, a poll found Monday.

Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is holding a 53 percent to 36 percent edge over Republican Bill Jones, with 10 percent undecided.


http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2004/08/16/state2044EDT0177.DTL

[Amaya]

24. Delete

[Doosh]

30. how could Missouri be a 48-47 dead heat....

and Kerry's lead shrinks 9 points in just 3-4 weeks? this isn't all swiftboat vets???

[MidwestTransplant]

31. It's an improvement. The May poll had Kerry only up 1

LOL

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. See Post 16.... I Can't Believe Those Idiots Released That Poll...

nt

[fizzana]

34. This poll is wrong

I'm managing a bunch of voter reg tables in the LA area and we're getting a significant amount of Republicans re-registering as Democrats. As much as 10% of all registrations in some places.

That tells me a whole lot more than this poll.

[rumguy]

35. This poll was released to give wingnuts a small illusion of hope

All over the internet lonely wingnuts on lonely message boards are masturbating about it.

It's the first tiny glimpse of good news they can lay claim to for months.

Let's see - Kerry is pulling ahead in Ohio *in spite* of the smearboat frauds.
Kerry is solidly ahead in Pennsylvania, and pulling ahead in Michigan.
And * is shaky in Florida.

I mean you got to give the wingnuts something lest they start Jim Jonesin' on us...we don't want that, at least not yet - we want them to witness the humiliating defeat of * in November - and then they can do whatever the hell they want.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

And Don't Forget Our Little Gift In Tomorrow's NYT

I remember in the waning days of Campaign 00 there were a couple of outlier polls that showed a close race in Cali....


Gore still refused to spend a dime there and won by twelve percentage points...

[rumguy]

40. I do remember that

I remember the pukes makin' a big deal about how California was in play. Then they got destroyed in California.

[DU GrovelBot]

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[welshTerrier2]

38. nonsense !!

put your cursor over California on this website: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

the poll shows Kerry ahead 52-39 in California ...

maybe the poll cited in the base post only included Republican voters ...

[genius]

43. Curtesy of Art Torres. If Bush wins, you know whom to thank.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

44. As the resident electoral pessimist

let me be reassuring just this once: Kerry will take CA by double digits without breaking a sweat.

[geek tragedy]

46. I hope this encourages the Rethugs to commit resources to California

"They love Arnold--sure they'll vote for Bush too!"

[Piperay]

47. That's pure bullshit

Kerry has a double digit lead and will keep it to the end, he doesn't even have to campaign here or run commercials!