This is NOT looking good.

[benburch]

Kerry's lead is softening everywhere.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

:-(

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. Can I have the hemlock after you?

nt

[Democat]

2. Two weeks of anti-Kerry attacks with no real response - what do you expect

Anyone could have seen it coming. Anyone except Kerry's strategists, apparently.

At least he's off his ass and fighting back now. Better late than never. :)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. The California Survey USA America Poll

has Bush getting 28% of the African American vote in Cali and has more Reps than Dems voting though Dems have a huge registration advantage


If you believe that I'm Michelle Malkin....

[Democat]

8. No one believes Bush will win California

Not even Bush. :)

[blondeatlast]

26. Michelle, the pink is just so tired now...

Sorry, couldn't resist.

[Davis_X_Machina]

39. Take two aspirin and call me after a Field poll. n/t

[Kahuna]

11. Exactly. Anybody who thinks those vicious attacks wouldn't make

a difference are dreaming. They do matter. And Kerry shouldn't have let them fester so long without a response. I'm glad that he finally did give a strong response. I don't think the damage is permanent. People just wanted to hear from him. Now they have.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

13. They also will not make a permanent difference .

Once the lies become apparent for what they are Kerry will get back some of the lost support.

[Kahuna]

15. I think he will regain that support too. I have noticed with the media...

that unless the candidates addresses the negative issues directly themselves, the controversies will just fester and grow. The media doesn't want to hear from surrogates or spokespeople. I hope that team Kerry has learned an important lesson from this.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

18. Kerry and his team are way ahead of the curve

They know what every achilles is the other side will try to hit, and they have a strategy and counter attack ready. The only missing thing is the timing- when each side will play its cards.
I am sure the AWOL card will be the last one played on the final week/weekend. It has the deepest resonance and is best left to the end.

[Scooter24]

14. That might be a sound strategy,

but it's risky.

Let them build momentum for two-weeks with an all out assault. Then, we come back even stronger and make them look like idiots. It could leave a bigger impression in the minds of those undecided voters and create a cloud of doubt over the sincerity of the vets. The risk is finding a way to communicate our rebuttal effectively so that it comes off strong.

Bush's record continues to go unchallenged. But we aren't seeing an all-out media storm challenging it because Bush is relying on his psuedo experience gathered from his war on Iraq to counter them.

Right now, it's more of a his version/my version debate. But with the monopoly of coverage the vets got, it isn't difficult to comprehend why some potential voters are holding back.

[Kahuna]

16. The problem is, and the bushies know this, is....

The initial lie leaves a bigger impact than the retraction. That's why the are successful with their lies. Only a fraction of the people who first heard the lie will learn the truth later down the road. That is why it isn't smart to let lies fester and get repeated over and over. You can never get the truth to all the people who heard the lie in the first place.

[DoYouEverWonder]

19. This was their strategy to let it fester

I read somewhere, this is how Kerry has handled these folks all through his career. They turn up every time he runs and so far, he always wins in the end.

Sometimes it is better to let someone dig their own grave, before you attack. It makes it so much easier to finish them off.

[trogdor]

32. The original plan was not to spend any of the $75 mil in August.

That lasted until Aug 20th. Eh, what's ten days?

[jonnyblitz]

34. no kidding!!!

at least he is fighting back now...

[searchingforlight]

3. It is going to see-saw and we have to be prepared for it

The picture will change again after the convention and the debates. It is as always Bush's to lose.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

4. The CA poll is overweighted on Republicans.

The California poll is overweighted on Republicans. The map gives it too much credit.

However, though the Kerry margin may not be softening much now, expect it to soften after the Republican convention.

Then there will be the debates.

[DemNoir]

5. It is August 20th

I heard somewhere that the election is NOV 2. There are 3 debates ahead and many more miles.

I didnt like the perception that Kerry is way ahead, it could hurt us in the long run.

[Warpy]

7. I don't see that much bad news

Not really. NM has gone from weak Kerry to tossup. Colorado has gone from weak Bush to tossup. Kerry still leads in EVs and the polls are still concentrating wholly on people who are home and always answer their wired phones.

I'm not worried yet, but yes, Kerry needs to get out there and fight the Bush smear machine. I suggest spinning it all and laughing at it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. The Cali Poll Is Troubling But It Has Been Debunked Already

see above...

[union_maid]

10. Kerry can only "get out there" as much as the media permits now

He did make an exception for one rebuttal ad, but he can't be goaded into spending much money on ads right now. The vital time to have that money is after the Republican convention. He can better afford to let his lead slip a little now and pour it on at the time when the undecideds are deciding, which will be right up to Election Day.

[Kahuna]

17. When Kerry makes as forceful a rebuttal as he did yesterday...

he'll get the media attention. When he makes a weak, on the fly, rebuttal he will get less media attention.

[Toucano]

12. It's alright...

Kerry is a BETTER candidate when he's running from behind.

I have every confidence he'll pull it out.

[Zynx]

20. I don't believe a number of those Survey USA polls.

They jump around so much that they can't be believed. Also, they showed close races in IA and NH during the primaries when they weren't.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. The Most Important Part Of The Poll Is Weighting...

If you are wrong on the number of Dems, Reps, and Indys, showing up at the polls your poll is worthless...


The SurveyUSA Cali poll has more Reps than Dems.... Rediculous...


And they have automated callers... When I hear an automated call I hang up....

What kind of goofball shares their opinions with a machine....

[59millionmorons]

21. I don't see any softening

It's in your head.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. which one (nt)

[59millionmorons]

24. Hold on

I was not suggesting the softening is in your head, I was suggesting you are seeing something that is not there.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. It Was A Joke (nt)

this board needs a little levity and i'm not the original poster...

[benburch]

30. Always a possibility.

Given the number of times I fell and bashed my head as a child...

;)

[German-Lefty]

25. Looks fine to me!!!

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 301 Bush 213

[blondeatlast]

27. Rememmber the

Primaries!

[elfin]

29. I am worried as well

Negative works. Also, the RNC convention will make them "look" moderate and the Dems a bunch of rampaging riffraff with the demonstations that are sure to be fodder for the media.

So Dumbya will get a bounce and the slime machine will go into overdrive while oil prices drop and corporations spend some of their huge cash reserves to hire big in time for glowing October reports.

[MallRat]

31. Post-convention bounce is dissipating. To be expected.

And don't freak about that CA poll. That's a bigtime outlier.

I'd be more concerned about holding onto WI, MN, and IA. Those have consistently been in the toss-up category for weeks.

Then again, Bush ought to be worried about clinging onto TN, AR, VA, MI, OH, and FL.

-MR

[veteran_for_peace]

33. What does look good?

Is the unified base that the democratic party has right now. I am sure that in Birmingham when the dogs and the firehouses where pointed at people that they were discouraged. What if they had given up hope? Would they have the right to vote? Would there still be lynchings in my city of Memphis?

There are going to be high and lows during the next couple of months. The President and his right wing cohorts would love to have us believe they are going to walk away victorous. But let us remind ourselves of the words of Dr Martin Luther King. "But we refuse to believe that the bank of justice is bankrupt. We refuse to believe that there are insufficient funds in the great vaults of opportunity of this nation. And so we have come to cash this check, a check that will give us upon demand the riches of freedom and the security of justice."

[rumguy]

35. Calm the F down!

The two most recent Pennsylvania show Kerry with a solid lead in that state. They show him winning among Penn military families as well.

Kerry's lead has grown in Ohio since the swiftie adds began appearing - look at the most recent Gallup poll.

Florida is looking shaky for the chimp.

Kerry let them commit to their swiftvet folly. He will answer them now.

I don't understand what there is to get worked up about.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. This Is Demoralizing....

The enemy wants us to be demoralized....

[MissouriTeacher]

36. Let's look at another EV website...

This one has Kerry winning by his biggest margin yet.

332 to 193 (without including VA)

http://www.race2004.net/

[DU GrovelBot]

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[Gloria]

40. I think Jeff Greenfield's comments a couple of

nights ago on Aaron Brown were correct...

it's way too early to predict who's going to win. He cited all the states where Kerry is "leading" saying that most of these are within the margin of error.
In other words, all those electoral college totals that look so huge really are not solid as we may want to believe.

Kerry has to toughen up. And Lieberman and Levin should be on the same page when the campaing comments about troop redeployment; and Willie Brown should stop talking about how Kerry isn't used to this nasty stuff, he's from MA where there's always been "respect." Jeeze, he even said Kerry's qualities might not make him a winning candidate but the same qualities would make him a great President.(sic)

Democrats should stop being so damned nice and go for the jugular.

PS...Tad Devine may be a smart, nice guy but his presence on TV is--wimpy.