ARG: Kerry Maintains Lead Over Bush Among Likely Voters in New Mexico

[Feanorcurufinwe]

John Kerry continues to have a slight lead over George W. Bush among likely voters in New Mexico according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 49% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 42% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 2% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 7% of likely voters are undecided. These overall results are unchanged from a survey conducted in early July.

In a race between just Bush and Kerry, Kerry leads Bush 52% to 42%, with 6% undecided.
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nm

[Beetwasher]

1. Slight Lead????

Yeah, right...7 points is a decent lead...

[A_Possum]

2. They always total the margin of error

so prolly the MOE is #3, meaning it's only a 1 pt lead.

The fact that only 2% are Nader is good. This has always been a Green stronghold, but people aren't stupid. (Well not all of them.)

[Feanorcurufinwe]

3. Here's a useful tool

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/moe2.shtml

[VirginiaDem]

8. No need to total the MOE...

The margin of error is plus or minus 3 so there's no reason to double it and substract that from seven. Assuming the confidence level is 95 percent then there's a 95 percent chance that Kerry is leading by between 4 and 10 percent (7 plus/minus 3). That's a significant lead. And the final expected outcome is probably somewhere closer to Without Nader than With since he's going to miss a lot of ballots and even where he's on not many will play pop the chad for Ralphie Boy. This means the real lead is probably somewhere between 7 and 13!Unless I'm minsunderstanding your point (in which case forgive and enlighten).

Edited for grammar.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

9. I don't really mind them underplaying it

it will just energize our turnout.

[quaoar]

4. electoral-vote.com

Is still citing the Rasmussen poll that shows New Mexico tied at 46 each -- and it has downgraded Kerry in California and Pennsylvania and Florida and strengthened Bush's lead in S.C.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

5. He uses the most recent poll so he will replace that one with this one

tomorrow.

[quaoar]

6. Except that he never posted the Raleigh News and Observer poll

showing NC within 3. And I emailed him about the omission.

[lapfog_1]

7. The N & O

hasn't been the same, apparently, since the Daniels family sold
it some number of years ago. Oh well, FAD III would probably have
run it into the ground, as he has all of the internet companies he
has started.