ARG Ohio poll: Kerry 48 Bush 45 Nader no impact

[Feanorcurufinwe]

John Kerry and George W. Bush remain tied among likely voters in Ohio according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 48% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 45% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 2% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 5% of likely voters are undecided.

In a race between just Kerry and Bush, Kerry is at 48%, Bush is at 45%, and 7% are undecided.
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/ohg

[Doosh]

1. kerry gained a point from last poll

at least we're holding steady here, I don't know what the fuck is going on in California and Michigan.

[fujiyama]

4. Ignore the CA poll

SUSA seemed to poll way too many republicans for that survey. CA is safe.

MI has slipped a bit (well in ARG's poll he has anyway) but others have the poll pretty steady at 5-7%. Bush doesn't have a very good chance in MI - swift vet liars or no liars. Same goes with PA.

[pmbryant]

2. Date on that poll is Aug 12

So I think that's the same poll we've been hearing about for a while now.

--Peter

[tedoll78]

3. Wow.. that pretty much duplicates the Gallup results..

as far as likely voters are concerned.

So it seems as though we have Ohio and Florida coming on-board. Ohio is likely somewhere between the "likely" and "registered" voters model, giving Kerry a lead of about 5 points there (plus whichever Nader voters decide to vote smartly). Florida polls in the past month on average give Kerry about a 5-point lead also.

Icing on this cake: from the looks of things, we're just beginning to fight hard.

Kerry's out swinging..
Devine, Cleland, Clark, and a whole host of former military officials are swinging along..
even the media are asking tough questions of the Chimp..
Iraq is still a mess..
F9/11 will be out on video in October..
our side is twice as fired-up this year as it was in 2000..
for the first time in forever, we're at least matching the GOP in fundraising..
our turnout efforts this year will be unprecedented..
young and old voters are waking-up..
demographics are changing in our favor..

We're in really good shape, and those 70-something days between now and the election can't move quickly enough for me.

[lebkuchen]

5. I'm writing a letter to the Ohio newspapers now

I hope others will do the same for these quasi Kerry states.