Kerry 2-day fall - from 338 > 328 > 312 EV in Election Model

[TruthIsAll]

That's why he is fighting back...

ELECTION FORECAST / SIMULATION MODEL

Created by TRUTHISALL

KERRY 8/20

Popular Vote %
National 53.40
State 50.83
Combined 52.11

Win Probability %
National 97.68
State 90.90
Combined 94.29

Avg. EV 312



http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[swag]

1. TIA, I love your model

but your conclusion is classic "post hoc ergo propter hoc" fallacy.

Show me causation, not correlation.

My feeling on the lag between the Smearboat ad and the counterattack is that the camp was getting their ducks in a row for maximum impact.

And now you have:

1. Firefighters speech
2. New ad
3. Big media coverage of the Smearboat/Bush link
4. FEC suit against Bush/Smearboat link

Big fucking impact.

Ali Rope-a-doped Foreman in rounds 3-7, then fucking knocked him on his ass in round 8.

Welcome to round 8 against the Smearboaters.

[RobertSeattle]

2. I don't think it is related

The EVs are going to bounce around quite a bit over the next 75 days.

Here's a nice graph:


http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/graph.html

[TruthIsAll]

3. The decline is in the latest state polls and the EV shows it .

The CBS national poll also showed a drop for Kerry.

Kerry will bounce back as he fights back.

No one likes a wimp.

Everyone likes a fighter for TRUTH!

[TruthIsAll]

4. The latest bogus CA poll: a precursor of a Bush fix?

Or just an outlier?

[DaveinMD]

5. don't worry

the tide is about to turn back in the other direction. Kerry has taken back the upper hand with his counter offensive.

[iwantmycountryback]

6. Wasn't that CBS veterans poll

A poll of less than 200 veterans? Olbermann said that was the case. Kind of a weak case for CNN, but they obviously don't tell you it was only 200.

[DaveinMD]

7. it was

only 200 veterans, which makes sense in a poll of that size. It also means the margin of error is huge. Regardless, the focus of this story has changed. Its now about Bush's dirty politics. The backlash is coming.