OBAMA UP BY 3 POINTS IN McCAINS HOME STATE OF ARIZONA

[kentuck]

http://washingtonindependent.com/view/mccains-arizona-woes

<SNIP>
The Zogby poll of 1,142 likely Arizona voters was conducted June 11-30, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The survey found Obama leading in Arizona with 42 percent of the vote, followed by McCain with 39 percent. Barr had 7 percent, followed by Independent Ralph Nader with 2 percent. Five percent of the voters selected other candidates and 5 percent were undecided.

Wenzel said 16 percent of Arizona voters who described themselves as very conservative said they would vote for Barr, with 64 percent backing McCain. The double-digit defection to Barr signals further trouble ahead for Arizona’s senior Senator.

“That’s very dangerous for a Republican candidate,” Wentzel said.

The poll shows Obama crushing McCain among Arizona Independent voters, 51 percent to 28 percent. The number of Independent voters in Arizona has skyrocketed in the last year and now makes up 27 percent of the state's voters. Republicans continue to hold a narrow 38 percent to 34 percent lead over Democrats in registered voters.

The McCain campaign did not return a call this afternoon from The Washington Independent for comment on the poll. The Arizona Republic reported Thursday that McCain's campaign called the Zogby poll a "fraud" and questioned the methodology of Internet polling. "John McCain has won every campaign he has run in Arizona, and he will win in November," Kurt Davis, Arizona McCain '08 co-chairman, told the newspaper.

John Zogby, president and chief executive officer of Zogby, said the poll was a scientific survey of voters likely to participate. "This is, for the moment, a very useful tool that suggests to me that John McCain has not closed the deal in his home state," Zogby told the Republic.

[speedoo]

1. Online poll, not very reliable.

But McCain has to worry about Arizona?

Amazing, even though it's clear he's a terrible candidate.

[OnTheOtherHand]

2. Zogby Interactive

The McCain campaign isn't first to suggest that ZI isn't very reliable -- although I wouldn't go for "fraud."

Per fivethirtyeight.com, Rasmussen and two other (obscure) June pollsters had McCain up by 9 to 11 points. That seems about right. Fine to say that McCain "has not closed the deal." Sketchy to say that Obama is ahead.

[underpants]

3. but but the MSNBC eletion map was still mostly red

Chuck Todd said so!!!

Actually I like Chuck Todd but I noticed that they made some huge leaps as to what was RED....oh BTW Virginia was neither red nor blue.

[ErinBerin84]

4. haha, Todd reluctantly moved MO from "Leans McCain" to tossup the other day

Though I was plesantly surprised that he DID bring up the fact that McCain has not been doing exceptionally when in the polls for his home state of AZ.