Electoral college projections

[Catshrink]

I received this email this morning from a friend. This is great news for us!


Following are links to two electoral college vote projection sites that you may want to bookmark. Both are continuously updated based upon the latest polls conducted within the states. One website is maintained by a Kerry supporter, and the other by a Bush supporter.

At this point in time the two sites are in general agreement in their projections of a Kerry electoral college win. If the current trend of the projections holds, Bush's "October Surprise" might be the replacement of Cheney on the ticket with a more "civilized-society friendly" Republican.

The following website is maintained by a Kerry supporter.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

The next one is a pro-Bush electoral college vote projection site.

http://www.electionprojection.com/

[Lefty48197]

1. Goodbye whistle ass

.

[coloradodem2005]

2. Only 286 to 233?

We need more. We need to get Ohio back from the Shrub.

[freetobegay]

3. CA is barely Kerry?

Yea right.

[CrispyQ]

4. Yeah, what's up with that?

I thought CA was firmly dem.

[Zynx]

9. We've already debunked the poll in question there.

They polled more Republicans than Democrats.

[DemMother]

5. I don't like electoral-vote.com

Every poll on this thing is equal, with the count based only on the latest polls. So the flawed ARG poll in California--lvs, weighted toward repubs, etc.--beats out the reliable Field Poll. And that strategic vision poll--which, if you check their client list--seems to be a pr/polling company used by right-wing repubs (Klayman and Brownback) and candidates for school board and other small-time races. I don't know much about the other electoral map. I'll be glad when Ruy T. is back with donkey rising and can put this all in perspective.

clients of strategic vision:

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/clients.html

[59millionmorons]

14. I agree

I emailed him about the same things you mention. He is a little stubborn. You cannot take every poll as being real. I discount any Zogby international polls, Rasmussen polls and strategic vision polls.

[Nevernose]

6. Civil rights activists are a "special interest?"

Now we know who they're talking about when they start talking about "special interests" in Washington. From the second site listed:
Dubya took the best punch well-heeled civil rights activists and unions had to offer and still came out on top. Those Democratic special interests will be hard-pressed to match that performance and even less likely to exceed it.

)although to be fair, I thought the Repuke site was very well done)

[DemMother]

7. more on strategic vision

Their CEO, David Johnson, was named Honorary Chairman for the National Republican Congressional Committee's Business Advisory Council. And, just found this out, worked on the Dole campaign.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/corporate/index.html

[Catshrink]

8. Oh well....

Thanks for keeping me informed. I didn't know who these folks are.

[DemMother]

10. I didn't either until I went to their website...

I don't want to put down your good news--because I think it is good news--I just wanted to point out that not all polling operations are equal and that some results should be treated with skepticism. But overall, I think Kerry is in very good shape and think that when the new Field or Zobgy polls come out on CA the state go back to solid blue. I just wish that electoral-vote map would at least average recent results, or something like that. But they've decided to do the latest polls, so that's what we're stuck with. Until the newest ones come out.

[Catshrink]

11. I didn't take it that way...

I appreciate the info.

[denny1958]

12. California Poll Results

When the guy from Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 posted the California results on Aug 20, he wrote this:
A very strange Survey USA poll puts Bush within 3% of Kerry in California, 49% to 46%. I don't believe that for a second. Remember that polls are always reported with a margin of error (MoE). For state polls, it is nearly always 3.5% to 4%, so we don't report it. What this means is that if you repeat the poll over and over, 95% of the time the difference between the true (unknown) mean and the measured mean will be no more than the MoE. A consequence of this is that 5% of the time, the measured mean will be off by more than the MoE. I don't know if this is the case here, but the data are very suspect. There is no reason to think Survey USA is cheating here. This may just be a statistical outlier.

Everyone knows that Culli-fornia is in the Strong Kerry category.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[Lauren2882]

13. A site I like..

www.swingstateproject.com

tracks detailed news and polls from the swing states. gives a little more depth than just numbers (but has the numbers also)