New NC Poll: McCain 43%, Obama 40% (Obama's getting closer)

[writes3000]

N.C. Poll: Presidential Race Tightens

Civitas Staff | July 21, 2008
McCain’s lead over Obama down to 3 points

Raleigh, NC – The competition for North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes for President has tightened this month with Republican Senator John McCain holding only a three point lead over his Democratic rival, Senator Barack Obama, according to the latest poll released by the Civitas Institute.

Among all voters, McCain leads Obama 43-40, a slight tightening of the four point lead McCain held in Civitas’ June survey where McCain led Obama 45-41. Libertarian Party nominee Bob Barr held steady from last month at two percent support. Fifteen percent were undecided.

“This month we’ve had slight tightening along with an increase in the number of undecided voters over last month,” said Francis DeLuca, Executive Director of the Civitas Institute. Undecided voters increased from twelve percent in June to fifteen percent in July.

Among Democrats, Obama leads 63-21, while McCain leads among Republicans (74-11) and unaffiliated voters (40-39). However, a large racial divide continues to exist. Obama garners the support of 92 percent of African-American voters, but only receives 28 percent of white voters.

“The race remains close in North Carolina and we are seeing this month how fluid the situation can be. Neither candidate has been able to make a decisive move to take a substantial lead. It should make the next few months very entertaining,” concluded DeLuca.

Previous Civitas Poll results:
February – McCain 46, Obama 36
April – McCain 48, Obama 39
May – McCain 44, Obama 39
June – McCain 45, Obama 41, Barr 2

http://www.nccivitas.org/media/press-releases/n-c-poll-presidential-race-tightens

[democrattotheend]

1. 28% of the white vote is more than Kerry got

Kerry only got 27% of the white vote. If Obama has 28% already with some people still undecided that means it could end up around 30%. If he actually does better than Kerry among white voters and increases both the share of the black vote and the turnout he could seriously win NC.

[writes3000]

2. I didn't realize that. That's encouraging.

It looks to me like more and more people in the South are losing confidence in McCain.

Those people may not vote for Obama but they may not vote at all.

[woolldog]

3. getting closer?

not really. He's at 40%, down from 41%, up from 39 and 39.

[writes3000]

6. Yes, by holding steady while McCain is losing support, Obama is getting closer. n/t

[ccharles000]

4. I hope Obama wins my state.

[darius15]

5. Interesting

NC & Virginia have the most stable polling out of any states. This is like the 10th straight poll of NC that showed McCain in the mid 40's and Obama in the low 40's.

NC is 22 % black, so if Obama can turn up the AA vote 20%, making the total vote to 26.4%, then he turns it into a very close state.

From what i hear, Obama is getting some votes in the Triangle, which is very affluent and usually votes Republican.