People need to get out of the mindset that electing Obama will be "easy"

[mathwhiz]

Polls now are kind of like the polls that showed Hillary ahead 30 points in October. They are completely meaningless because nobody but political junkies are paying attention.

The important thing to look at is the "undecided" number to determine who is really undecided. In the polls I've seen, it's the white people who are undecided about Obama. In Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and other primary states with long, tough, racial histories, Hillary did a lot better than much of the late polling indicated she would because these white undecideds all broke for her on election day. This was probably because a lot of the undecideds in the polls weren't really undecideds. They just said that to the pollsters for political correctness or maybe they felt that way and when they were alone in the polling booth doubts crept in and they went with the "safe" choice. Obama was too much change for them.

Hillary also overperformed in state after state in the exit polls probably because of self-selection on election day. Obama's supporters were obviously more enthusiastic about their candidate and that makes sense it would carry over to talking to pollsters. People lead busy lives? Who really takes the time to spend 20 minutes answering dozens of poll questions? The true believers.

There is a self-selection bias in all polling, even telephone polls, that is not covered much and it probably inflates Obama's poll numbers by a few points. People need to rememebr response rates are abysmal for most pollsters. Less than 15% of people called bother to talk to a pollster.

Therefore, here's a rule of thumb that will get people here focused on getting Obama elected:

Unless you see a poll showing Obama with a decent lead AND crossing the 50% threshold in the poll, McCain can still win that state because the white undecideds may break his way on election day.

I don't mean to sound all doomy and gloomy, but one of the annoying things I've found about many of the more enthusiastic Obama supporters is how irrational some of their belief systems are.

They were sure Obama was going to win Ohio and Texas and the race would be over March 4th.

They were sure Obama was going to win Pennsylvania or stay within a few points.

And when they saw Obama losing the Appalachian counties in southeastern Ohio and southwestern Pennsylvania by 80-20 margins, reality hit them like a brick in the face. I think a lot of that is the young people who are new to politics and maybe have lived bubble lives where they haven't seen that a lot of the country has only mildly progressed since 1950.

Let's get a reality check people. It's not going to be easy to elect Obama.

This week is good. It gets people out of the mindset that this election is a shoe-in and we're going to have to fight like hell for it. Because we are if we have any chance in hell of winning. We're going up against 230 years of institutionalized racism.

It's not going to be easy.

And Barack Obama and every single person in headquarters in Chicago don't think it'll be easy either.

[cliffordu]

1. Do you have any data to back the numbers?? Should I be concerned??

[FrenchieCat]

3. Eek! Pumas recommending.

[FrenchieCat]

2. Sounds like you support Hillary from what I can gather.

Obama was 20 points behind in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

If you are going to sign up to call Obama supporters irrational,
you might want to back that shit up with facts.

I would say "welcome to DU"......but I don't think it will help lenghten your stay.

[mathwhiz]

5. I have no interest in reliving the primary

You can google for the polls. There were numerous ones that had Obama much closer than Hillary's winning margins in those states.

[FrenchieCat]

6. I don't think so.

In fact, I quite clearly remember.

But since you are citing polls, why don't you google them
and add them here.....just so you back your shit up.

And if you are not reliving the Primaries, than pass me what you're smoking.

[mathwhiz]

7. I guess you were out to lunch when these polls were taken

But whatever here you go.

New Jersey - Hillary won by 10

Rasmussen 02/04 - 02/04 835 LV 49 43 Clinton +6.0

Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 02/02 - 02/04 872 LV 46 41 Clinton +5.0

Quinnipiac 01/30 - 02/03 463 LV 48 43 Clinton +5.0


Texas - Hillary won by 4

Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 02/28 - 03/01 736 LV 43 47 Obama +4.0

SurveyUSA 03/01 - 03/02 840 LV 48 49 Obama +1.0

Rasmussen 03/02 - 03/02 710 LV 47 48 Obama +1.0

Ohio - Hillary won by 8

Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 03/01 - 03/03 828 LV 44 44 Tie

Quinnipiac 02/27 - 03/02 799 LV 49 45 Clinton +4.0

Pennsylvania - Hillary won by 9

PPP (D) 04/19 - 04/20 2338 LV 46 49 Obama +3.0

Rasmussen 04/20 - 04/20 722 LV 49 44 Clinton +5.0

SurveyUSA 04/18 - 04/20 710 LV 50 44 Clinton +6.0

[FrenchieCat]

9. No, I just know how much catching up he had to do in

a few short weeks.

He won Texas, but the way.

Take operation Chaos out of there, and Obama did much better than he was expected.

Looks like Barack is doing fine.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/pennsylvania.html

[27inCali]

4. cell phones

people with only cell phones and no land lines don't get polled

now who would that be?

oh yeah, the 20 somethings.

Who were they heavily favoring again?

[mathwhiz]

8. some poll companies do call cell phones

gallup uses them for example.

Here's the link that shows gallup polls cell phones since apparently everyone here tonight is demanding proof.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109219/Gallup-Daily-Race-Tied-44.aspx

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

[bridgit]

10. Cell phone survey data is weighted differently, can be viewed as less complete; a land-line supports

residence, demographics and so forth as well assist with longitudinal data capture. It is a pity that telemarketers have blown the populace out with all their nonsense cause people just got tired of answering any phone enter: the national no call list. The survey pool has become more diluted for these last some 7-8 years as people with seasoned opinions become harder to locate.

[FrenchieCat]

11. Gallup is fucked!

If you didn't know.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=3706560&mesg_id=3706560