What if the 2004 Presidential isn't even close?

[demosincebirth]

Everyone knows the presidential election is going to be a squeaker. Liberals are mad at Bush, but conservatives love him. For every blue state, there's a red state. November 2nd is going to be a long night.

But what if it isn't? What if it isn't even close?






http://gadflyer.com/articles/?ArticleID=185

[DebJ]

1. Will be partying hardy seeing Bush lose in a landslide!

[yellerpup]

2. It won't be close, augie

Kerry is going to win big.

[givemebackmycountry]

3. Well

That's OK as long as it's not us that's getting creamed.

I want BUSH to be defeated AND destroyed.
I want to see him suffer the worst defeat in any Presidential election.

But that won't happen.

It's going to be a long gut wrenching night.

[Old and In the Way]

4. What if corporate media was purposely framing the race close?

Maybe for short term commercial reasons? Wouldn't want to telegraph a blowout now and lose viewers. Keep it close and guarantee larger advertising revenue.

[billkurtmeyer]

5. 80% of me says . .

it won't even be close - a landslide but there is that 20% of doubt! If it is a landslide I will be drunk and celebrating for a week, might even drive down to Crawford to heckle * (but then in *'s America I could never get close to him - wishful thinking)!

[demosincebirth]

11. I feel the same...

It's that 20% that keeps me awake at night. I go throught this every 4 years. I drive my wife nuts, who is also a dem, but not vocal about it like I am.
Tell me I'm not alone, pleeeze.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

6. It doesn't actually look like it will be that close.

At least, not based on the actual polling.

[liberal N proud]

7. I think the pollsters are way off mark. It will not even be in the

ball park.
The pollsters and talking heads have not considered all the get out the vote campaigns that are going on in this country.
I tried to find the source for the story but was unsuccessful, but here in NE Ohio, several counties are inundated with new voter registrations. This was a story on Chanel 5 in the Cleveland area last week. One county has doubled the number of registered voters. In this politically charged year and seeing all the ABB attitudes, the majority of voters has got to be for someone other than Bush.

My theory is that if everyone that could vote did vote, the repubs would not stand a chance in any office.

I am looking for a landslide for Kerry!

[gratuitous]

8. Then I'll be happy I worked so hard

I'm not leaving anything in the locker room. Go as hard as you are able!

[bobbieinok]

9. BBV and 24/7 RW TV and radio........make me wonder

[WMliberal]

10. then i'll party even harder!!!!!!!

break out the bubbly

[Awsi Dooger]

12. We better hope it's close

I hate being the Christopher Hitchens-like contrarian here, but there really isn't justification to think Kerry can pull 52-53% or more, digits that would make it not even close. Versus an incumbent who is (cough) viewed as personally likeable, and with Kerry not exactly a charismatic triumph, plus all the fear-based ammo Bush will have along with all that cash, and the Republican convention following ours, very difficult to project Kerry as the first Dem since LBJ to bust 50%. If anyone cracks that mark significantly, I fear it will be Bush.

We can hope for an everything-falls electoral (semi)landslide much more than an across the board popular vote rout, IMO.

[CaTeacher]

13. Why not? I think it will

be like the Reagan versus Carter election--an incumbent who gets trounced by the challenger. (and Carter was a better president and better man than * in every way!).

That is the way I see it happening. A very good and solid win against an incumbent. (I don't compare it to the unseating of Bush 1--because the Perot factor made that race really different--and I don't compare it to the unseating of Ford--because he had a HUGE scandal in Watergate. Although there are some scandals with potential--nothing has reached Watergate levels yet. However--as seen with Ford and Bush 1--people have a low tolerance for repugs who screw up!!!)

[Awsi Dooger]

15. Perhaps, but Bush' approval ratings are much higher than Carter's

The hostage crisis plagued Carter smack thru election day. We need GW to experience another embarrassing low point, like the prison pictures mess, that jolts his numbers below 45%. With all the terrorism fear and how Bush will exploit that, I'm not sure a sluggish economy or enemic job growth is enough to guarantee Kerry a significant margin.

But I continue to see encouraging mini trends. Both my fence sitting neighbor and my unconcerned sister and her husband are now sporting Kerry stickers on every car.

[AndyTiedye]

14. If It's Close, Bush* Will Steal It Again

The only way we can win is with a big, huge landslide.

Venezuela has shown us the way. Turnout!

[fujiyama]

16. I expect

the margin of the popular vote to favor Kerry by 2-3%.

My guess is he will also win over 300 electoral votes when all is said and done. All the states Gore won have small leads for Kerry and several of the states Bush won are very close - with Kerry having a small lead in the two big states - OH and FL. CO, AR, and MO are all virtually tied. VA shows Bush with a lead of 4% which is probably within the margin of error.

Barring Osama being captured, I think Kerry will pull this off...and it won't be nearly as close as last time.