Head of the University of IA Hawkeye Poll: An early Edwards exit would have aided Obama, not Clinton

[sabra]

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/08/iowa-expert-an.html#more

Iowa expert: An early Edwards exit would have aided Obama, not Clinton

A new -- and persuasive -- "what if" scenario has been offered for how the Democratic presidential race would have played out if John Edwards' extramarital affair had been revealed before the voting began, rather than long after it was over. And this latest view differs dramatically from the lament offered Monday by ex-Hillary Clinton aide Howard Wolfson (below).

...

Au contraire, argues David Redlawsk -- head of the University of Iowa's Hawkeye Poll and, in the walk-up to the caucuses, himself an Edwards backer.

An e-mail sent today by the school's news service says that polling on caucus night supervised by Redlawsk indicated "that the absence of Edwards would have helped (Barack) Obama."

The survey, which quizzed a randomly selected caucus participant in every Iowa precinct, asked the voters about their second-choice preferences. Among the 82% of Edwards supporters willing to back someone else, 51% named Obama as their next choice, 32% picked Clinton.

Wolfson's claim "that two-thirds of Edwards supporters would have supported Clinton is just not supported in data collected directly from those who actually participated in the caucuses," Redlawsk says in the e-mail. "Had Edwards not been running, and if nothing else had changed, my data suggest that Obama would have ended up even further ahead of Clinton than he was."

[Bucky]

1. It is in bad taste to talk about how Edwards might've timed his pull outs.

Sabra, have you no shame?

[SoCalDem]

3. Now you've done it..

[PresidentObama]

2. Doesn't matter. Obama's the nominee. This is a forum meant for the General Election discussion.

Primaries are over.

[Ian David]

4. Damn! I thought it would have catapulted Dennis Kucinich to a landslide victory. n/t

[jobycom]

5. We should ask Cokie Roberts what her opinion is.

I mean, if Obama had confessed that he vacations in exotic locations that are barely states instead of in red-neck resort areas, would he be the nominee?

[Pirate Smile]

6. I mean really, who knew he did such a thing? "Nobody could have foreseen..."