Sobering new(ish) feature at Electoral-Vote.com -- "This day in 2004"

[bunkerbuster1]

Mind you, I have every confidence that Obama's keen political instincts and outstanding organization will see him through to victory.

But I was pretty sure that Kerry and the DNC had their act together around this time four years ago.

The electoral-vote.com website has a fairly new feature that gives you a snapshot of the electoral map polling for this week minus four years, for example:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Aug12.html

I know, I know, the Swift Boating effect hadn't begun to play out, and I can't think of any serious card the 'Thugs could play that they haven't already attempted to play, but God only knows what their money and power can bring to a Presidential race.

[Drunken Irishman]

1. The big difference, of course, is most every key state was barely Kerry.

Compare their poll averages in each of those states to where Obama is today:

Oregon: K + 4, O + 7
New Mexico: K + 7, O +5
Minnesota: K + 2, O + 7
Iowa: K + 2, O + 5
Wisconsin: K + 1, O + 5
Michigan: K + 7, O + 7
Pennsylvania: K + 5, O + 6
Maine: K + 4, O + 10

States Kerry wins, that Obama currently loses:

Missouri
Florida
West Virginia

States that were barely Bush in Kerry's map:

Nevada: B + 1
Arizona B + 3
Arkansas: B + 2
Tennessee: B + 2
Virginia: B + 3

States that are barely McCain:

Montana: M + 1
North Dakota: M + 3
South Dakota: M + 4
Ohio: M + 2 (Kerry was losing Ohio by 4 on average)
Virginia: M + 1 (tied, essentially)
North Carolina: M + 4 (even after selecting Edwards, Kerry was still down 6 here)

Clearly Kerry had far weaker support than Obama.

[bunkerbuster1]

3. Thanks, I needed that

See also (linked at electoral-vote.com) :

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/08/11/obama_running_ahead_of_kerry_in_41_states.html

and, linked from that piece:

http://ballotbox.governing.com/2008/08/where-the-presi.html

this tidbit:

The most fascinating thing about the state-by-state numbers: Every single one of Obama's 12 strongest states when compared to Kerry has an African-American population that is BELOW the national average of 12.4%.

This group includes four states -- Montana, Idaho, South Dakota and Wyoming -- that have the four lowest black populations in the country.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. It's also important to point out Kerry was only at 307 EC votes with two big states.

Missouri and Florida.

You take both away and give them to Bush (which eventually happened) and Kerry's total now stands at 269. That's including West Virginia, Iowa and New Mexico, 3 states he eventually lost.

Now look at Obama's map. What do you see? He's winning this thing WITHOUT Missouri, Florida and Ohio.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

2. If you want a real brain-twister, check Nov 1, 2004

[Zynx]

4. That was largely a function of the last spate of Zogby polls.

Here was the final map:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Nov02.html

[Drunken Irishman]

6. I remember that day all too well.

It had me so giddy and then it crashed.

[Blue_Tires]

9. remember bin laden had a tape released THAT VERY WEEK

[high density]

5. Whoopty ding... I remember Zogby told us it was Kerry the night before

I still have his stupid prediction archived away somewhere.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Everything pointed to a Kerry win.

Polls, exit polls, Zogby, big turnouts.

Alas...:(