Nebraska DU'ers, Could Kerry Carry the 1ST Cong. District?

[liberalpragmatist]

Kos says that the 1st District (Doug Bereuter's district) is competitive. Apparently it's a strong pickup opportunity for Dems and Kos reasons that Kerry could carry the district and pickup an electoral vote. (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/8/18/123724/416)

How likely is that? And what about the 2nd district, which looks more urban? I realize that winning Nebraska outright would be impossible. But 1 or 2 of their districts?

Here's the 1st district - the one in question:



Feedback would be appreciated.

[WI_DEM]

1. hate to say it but doubt it can be done.

In 2000 the first congressional district went to Bush by a 60-36 margin (142,562-86,946) and the second was a bit closer, 57-37 for Bush (131,485-88,975) the third was the most republican of all though.

[hatrack]

3. Have to agree - VERY unlikely

Kerry might break 40% in the 1st, but Nebraska is really really REALLY Republican - even the first district.

If Conneally wins, I'll be speechless. If Kerry wins, I don't know what the hell I'd do.

[tedoll78]

2. I don't know.

but I'll throw an interesting element to your question:

Gore states
+
New Hampshire
+
either West Virginia or Nevada
+
1 Nebraska electoral vote
=
270 electoral votes.

Just a bit of fuel for your fire; this could be a more important question than many realize.