Harris Poll: Obama 47% McCain 38% Nader 3% Barr 2%

[book_worm]

Demographic analysis of these voting intentions shows that this is not a typical election. Indeed, some demographic groups are behaving quite atypically. This demographic analysis also raises several warning signs for both candidates. These are some of the results from the latest Harris Poll of 2,834 U.S. adults surveyed online between August 1 and 7, 2008 by Harris Interactive®:

Age: Obama’s lead is critically dependent on his 33 point lead among Echo Boomers, people under 32 – but they are usually are the least likely generation to actually vote. If they do not vote very heavily in November this would hurt Obama’s chances. McCain leads among "Matures," those over 62, by nine points, the generation that is usually the most likely to vote;
Gender: There is currently no gender gap in this election. Obama’s lead is almost the same among men (+8 points) and women (+10 points);
Race: Obama currently wins virtually all the African-American vote (+91) and most of the crucial Hispanic vote (+25) but loses the white vote by eight points. In the past whites were more likely to vote than blacks or Hispanics;
Education: In many elections, those with only a high school education or less vote heavily Democratic; in this poll, McCain actually leads by four points. This is the group where Obama’s race is most likely to hurt him. Obama leads among those with some college (+16), college graduates (+14) and has his biggest lead among those with post-graduate education (+30). However because more educated people are more likely to vote these findings are not good news for McCain;
Income: There is only a modest correlation between income and voting intentions. Obama leads among all income groups, with a 17 point lead among those with less than $35,000 and six points among those earning $75,000 or more;
Party Identification: Unsurprisingly, most Democrats prefer Obama (+72) and most Republicans favor McCain (+71). The crucial Independent vote currently tilts toward Obama by 11 points;
Political Philosophy: Conservatives favor McCain by 52 points and Liberals favor Obama by 73 points. The very important Moderate vote, a larger group than either Conservatives or Liberals, currently prefers Obama over McCain by 19 points.

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index.asp?PID=941

[Alexander]

1. Amazing. Nader and Barr are both taking votes away from McCain.

And here I thought they'd cancel each other out.

[Fire_brand]

2. I think it's Nader's name recognition

Say you have some conservatives saying "I don't like McCain, I'm voiting for a 3rd party." Some of these people may choose Nader since he's ran several times he's sort a "default" 3rd choice.

[Zynx]

6. What I think it is is that Obama has a splintered Dem vote and some of those who barely

back McCain choose a third party when given the choice.

[dtotire]

3. O might have a majority but lose the Electoral College

I hope I'm unduly pessimistic.

[caledesi]

5. You are. nt

[Drunken Irishman]

8. If Obama beats McCain by 10, he isn't losing the electoral college.

It would be almost mathematically impossible, unless he somehow manages to win every Democratic stronghold by 30+ points.

[Forkboy]

4. C'mon people, we all have to work harder.

At helping Bob Barr. :evilgrin:

[Drunken Irishman]

7. Thank you for posting a POSITIVE poll.

[book_worm]

9. You're welcome. My belief is that at this time any poll that has Obama is ahead is positive

it sure beats being behind, and most polls do show him ahead. I'm not going to fall for that media inspired "why isn't he doing better" crap.

[Drunken Irishman]

12. Yup. Better to be ahead by 3 than down by 3.

[featherman]

10. Just did a Google news search - very little mention of this poll

Doesn't fit the current media story line, perhaps?

[Thrill]

11. Barr is very attractive to people here in NC

I expect him to play a big roll. I can't believe people are that crazy about Nadar

[leftynyc]

17. My friend in Georgia told me the same thing

Said Barr could pull 8-9% in that state. That would be lovely. By the way, she's a conservative republican who raised 4 daughters who are all voting for Senator Obama. I never fail to tell her what a great job she did with those young women.

[eshfemme]

13. Yes, thank you for this. Most analysis is tainted by the MSM bias for an even horse race.

When you look at the pure numbers, it's more obvious that Obama's doing REALLY well.

[Arugula Latte]

14. Bwa ha ha. McAnus under 40 percent.

Why can't he close the deal?

[darius15]

15. Not to say Obama isn't winning, but...

I think that some of the results in this poll are kind of questionable. It shows Obama winning men by 8 points. If Obama manages to win men by 8 points, I don't think he'd lose more than 5 states. Bill Clinton got over 300 EV's both times and he managed a tie among men.

Second, I don't believe them when it says that those with a high school education or less are voting McCain. Gallup broke their polls down using their education level and in that survey, Obama won these voters by over 10%.

[writes3000]

16. Cool. Thanks for sharing! n/t

[JPZenger]

18. Nader will be on the ballot in PA - was no challenge

In 2004, the PA Democratic Party challenged Nader's petition signatures and was able to find enough invalid ones to keep him off the ballot. In 2008, no challenge was filed and Nader will be on the PA ballot.

(Many Dems are defending themselves against charges that government employees and tax dollars were mis-used to fight Nader's petitions in 2004).

I don't think it will make much difference, but FYI.