If Kerry wins 3 of these 11 states, Bush is TOAST

[TruthIsAll]

He's ahead or tied in 5 right now.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/



THE BATTLEGROUND 11
On Edit:
Four Zogby polls out today! Just ran the model. GREAT NEWS!
Kerry is ahead in 7 states. He needs THREE to play it safe, assuming he holds on to Gore's states.

In fact, if he just repeats Gore's win in FL, Kerry wins.

ST EV Kerry Bush
AZ 10 45 48 << 50 47 just updated (Zogby)
AR 6 47 48
CO 9 47 47 << 49 46 ""
FL 27 50 49
MO 11 49 49
NV 5 48 46
NC 15 45 51 << 50 49 ""
OH 20 46 51
TN 11 50 48
VA 13 45 49 << 48 49 ""
WV 5 42 49

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

1. Hey mon why does PA not make the list?

[TruthIsAll]

2. Because, mon, he's a sure thing in PA

tia

[Thrill]

3. Personally I don't care what these polls say

I think the key to this election is black and hispanic americans and young people. If the Dems can get all them out to vote Kerry will win. If they don't..................

[Jack Rabbit]

4. Zogby's figure differ from yours

Please click here.

Not a lot, but they are different.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. ZOGBY IS A POLL OF SELF SELECTED RESPONDENTS...

NT

[DemBones DemBones]

10. Is that true for ALL Zogby polls? I know Zogby

has internet polls you can sign up for, but thought those were separate?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Not All Zogby Poll Are Interactive But I Believe This Set Is...

The final pre-election Harris interactive poll nailed Election 00 but I am suspicious of polls of self selected respondents...


I'd like the methodology explained to me.....

[TruthIsAll]

7. Thanks, I am updating the numbers right now and will re-run the model.

Zogby was late in reporting those states.

Great news!

[TruthIsAll]

17. Just updated Zogby's numbers... Kerry back up to 322 EV!

Zogby was RIGHT in the 2002 Senate elections. Diebold made him look bad when they stole GA, NH, TX, MN, CO.

Hot off the press:
CO 49 46
AZ 50 47
VA 48 49
NC 50 47

Check out the graph now.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[TNMOM]

6. What about Wisconsin?

Is Wisconsin already locked up? Cool.

[TruthIsAll]

18. Zogby has WI at 51-46 Kerry and rising...I project it at 53-47

tia

[BeatleBoot]

8. We need Ohio

[ItsMyParty]

9. There's another part of that picture

These are states that were in Bush column in 2000. Yes, it would be great to get any of them. BUT, we also have some damn barn burners out there that were Dem last time. In other words, these are great as add ons but they do squat crap if we can't hold on to what we had. I've seen so many different polls and right now I'd say we have a nip and tuck battle in: Wisconsin, Iowa, and maybe evenin Minnesota and Michigan. We should be clearing the bar there quite nicely and we aren't yet. Just like we look at the map and see those other states and say "it's gonna be a Kerry landslide", the possibilities of being a Bush landslide are just as great---even greater if you add in the power of the incumbent and the fact the Bush can manipulate the news from the Oval Office very easily.

[DemBones DemBones]

11. Hey, Truth, do you see any effect from

the SmearVets ads? It's been talked about so much on television and at DU that I've been getting discouraged. Has it made any difference in the overall poll results you're tracking?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. I Wasn't Directed To Me....

go to www.pollingreport.com


There appears to be some tightening but I am suspicious of explanations that rely on post hoc ergo propter hock reasoning....

[TruthIsAll]

21. Yes, the smear campaign has worked...but the backlash has started...

Zogby's numbers prove it. The other numbers which showed a Kerry deterioration were as of a week or two back. These recent polls indicate a solid shift back to Kerry.

Ain't no stoppin' us now...

[DemBones DemBones]

28. Just as long as we're coming back

from it. The revelations of SmearVets "misspeaking" and flip-flopping in their statements should help.

[lastknowngood]

13. I don't see a one he has any chance in. They havn't even yelled

gay marriage abortion and they'll take your guns yet.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. That's The Spirit That Will Lead Us To Victory....

Not

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

19. LKG is nothing if not consistent in message...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. I Approach This Race With An Open Mind...

There's lots more to be played out but I think we have a decent shot....


But this fucken doom and gloom sucks....


Pardon my Spanish...

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

22. I agree. Personally if I was as hopeless as LKG I don't know if I'd even

bother thinking about or reading about the news and the election. Basic take seems to be, Dems are screwed because they're antigun or whatever. We'll never win any of these battleground states.

There was a character, Glum, in the old "Adventures of Gulliver" Hannah-Barbera cartoon (from the old "Banana Splits" show), who would constantly say things like: "We're all going to die!" and "We'll never make it!" when the Lilliputians were headed towards a waterfall or something. Many DUers like this.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. I Guess If You're Constantly Pessimistic You Will Never Be Disappointed

NT

[David Zephyr]

15. I Think That New Hampshire is Safely Kerry's Now With Four E.V.'s

Thanks for this very helpful analysis, TruthIsAll.

And New Hampshire's switch-over alone from 2000, even with its 4 electoral votes, will change the calculus above. I truly believe Bush can not and will not win New Hampshire.

[Awsi Dooger]

24. Two of those should be plenty

Especially if at least one is a double digit biggie. And if it's Florida or Ohio, one will be sufficient.

Regardless of current numbers, I'm just not buying our chances in Colorado, North Carolina, Tennessee or Virginia. Each of those states would require virtually a 10 point surge in our direction from 2000, extremely unlikely. Some of these are guaranteed to be very close, like Missouri, Nevada, Ohio and Florida. We need at least a fair share of the split decisions.

And I'll continue to wait until two weeks post-Republican convention to take any state or national poll seriously.

[mvd]

26. Hopefully Edwards is starting to have an effect.

Tennessee was fairly close in 2000. Colorado, I still have some doubts about.

[Awsi Dooger]

27. Tennessee was close because of Gore

He takes plenty of grief for not winning his home state, but I'm sure it was at least 4 points closer than it would have been without him. The last time Gore was not on our ticket, we blew Tennessee by 16 points in '88. I think it's simply too much to ask, even though we pulled out a nice gov win in 2002.

North Carolina will likely be about 4 points closer with Edwards than minus him, again probably not quite enough unless Kerry's national margin is substantial.

The intriguing state is West Virginia, off it's one cycle betrayal. Regardless of current polls, I have more hopes there than some of the traditionally unfavorable states on this list.

[redstateblues]

29. The GOP Focused on TN Last Time, and there was a lot of

Anti Gore sentiment here, as Gore did not have a lot of support. It's different this year- Our new Gov, Phil Bredesen, is a Mass. Librul who won by getting disaffected Rs to cross over. Don't dismiss TN so easily

[mvd]

30. I actually think Gore may have affected TN negatively

As much as I like Gore, he did give TN the cold shoulder when he was Vice President. He hardly came back to visit, and got out of touch with local TN politics.

I think we can take at least a couple Southern states.

[TruthIsAll]

34. 10 point surge? Not necessary.

In 2000, Bush got barely over 50% in three of the four states. Nader picked up votes in CO and VA which will go to Kerry. Edwards makes NC a horse race.

--Gore Bush
CO 42 51
NC 43 56
TN 47 51
VA 44 52

Kerry has a decent shot. Just one of them will win it for him.

[TruthIsAll]

25. Zogby had Kerry at 50-43 nationally on Aug. 14

These state numbers should have Kerry up in Zogby's next poll by...

and here is my prediction...52-43

[TruthIsAll]

31. Latest Zogby polls prove Swift Boat ads worked (OH, WV)

They ran the ads in OH, WV, WI. Just look at the poll numbers compared to the other states.

Is it just a coincidence that Kerry is trailing by 5 in OH and 7 in WV and is doing well in almost all the other states?

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aCBgHin3a0AA&refer=top_world_news

snip
The Swift boat group ran ads earlier this month in Ohio, Wisconsin and West Virginia saying Kerry didn't deserve the three Purple Hearts for being wounded and the Silver and Bronze Stars for valor awarded to him by the U.S. Navy for his service in Vietnam. They cite their own recollections of events to dispute Navy records from the time the medals were approved 35 years ago.

snip

The Swift Boat Veterans group is spending $1.1 million on ads attacking Kerry. Of that, $550,000 was spent on the spots that ran earlier this month in Ohio, Wisconsin and West Virginia, said spokesman Sean McCabe.

more...

[Feanorcurufinwe]

32. nt

[tritsofme]

33. You don't take these Zogby Interactive polls seriously, do you?

As far as I'm concerned they just waste space, and make people either unduly depressed or excited.

[autorank]

35. I took two in 5 days...

The methodology of allowing me to do that is truly suspect. Seriously, I'll never change my mind. Kerry can have a dozen orphaned children and I'm voting for him. Zogby had been fairly tight methodologically but to allow me, Xtreme Democrat, to pass through his little portal twice in five days is not a good sign.