Forget the RNC. The next important day is 9/3/04 - New Job Figures - IMHO

[MikeG]

[tritsofme]

1. What's your prediction?

I've been way over the past 2 months, but I will continue to bet moderately high.

Other indicators are suggesting to me that we should see some upward revisions in these ridiculously anemic June/July numbers.

I say they both get revised back up toward 100k-125k.

The early consensus is 150k for August, I think we're looking at a solid 200k. Initial claims have been relatively low, however historically August is a hit or miss month.

Throughout the 90s we either saw huge payroll numbers or freak losses like in 1997 and 2000.

[MikeG]

3. Job losses and Bush knows it - hence the negative ads.

[tritsofme]

6. kick

[speedoo]

2. 9/1/04 is also important...

Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment data for July is released. Dumbya makes his acceptance speech on 9/2.... the day between these two employment data releases.

[OHswingvoter]

4. It will all be bad news.

There is never good economic news when a Bush is in the white house.

[hang a left]

5. They can play with the numbers and don't forget

all the teachers that just went back to work. They will find a way to pencil all of them in.