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New myth from Hillary supporters: Hillary polls better against McCain.

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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 05:08 PM
Original message
New myth from Hillary supporters: Hillary polls better against McCain.
Here's every poll taken since the beggining of the year for Obama vs McCain

Poll	       Date           Sample    Obama (D) McCain (R)  Spread
RCP Average 08/04 - 08/19 -- 44.9 43.6 Obama +1.3
LA Times/Bloom 08/15 - 08/18 1248 RV 45 43 Obama +2
Reuters/Zogby 08/14 - 08/16 1089 LV 41 46 McCain +5
Gallup Tracking 08/17 - 08/19 2658 RV 45 43 Obama +2
Rasmussen Track 08/17 - 08/19 3000 LV 47 46 Obama +1
Quinnipiac 08/12 - 08/17 1547 LV 47 42 Obama +5
Battleground 08/10 - 08/14 1000 LV 46 47 McCain +1
IBD/TIPP 08/04 - 08/09 856 RV 43 38 Obama +5
Pew Research 07/31 - 08/10 2414 RV 46 43 Obama +3
CBS News 07/31 - 08/05 906 RV 45 39 Obama +6
Gallup Tracking 08/01 - 08/03 2659 RV 46 43 Obama +3
Rasmussen Track 08/01 - 08/03 3000 LV 46 47 McCain +1
Time 07/31 - 08/04 808 LV 46 41 Obama +5
AP-Ipsos 07/31 - 08/04 833 RV 48 42 Obama +6
CNN 07/27 - 07/29 914 RV 51 44 Obama +7
USA T/Gallup 07/25 - 07/27 791 LV 45 49 McCain +4
Pew Research 07/23 - 07/27 1241 RV 47 42 Obama +5
Demo Corps (D) 07/21 - 07/24 1004 LV 50 45 Obama +5
FOX News 07/22 - 07/23 900 RV 41 40 Obama +1
NBC News/WSJ 07/18 - 07/21 1003 RV 47 41 Obama +6
Gallup 07/13 - 07/15 2638 RV 47 44 Obama +3
CBS News/NY T 07/07 - 07/14 1462 RV 45 39 Obama +6
Rasmussen 07/11 - 07/13 3000 LV 47 46 Obama +1
ABC News/WaPO 07/10 - 07/13 LV 49 46 Obama +3
Reuters/Zogby 07/09 - 07/13 1039 LV 47 40 Obama +7
Quinnipiac 07/08 - 07/13 1725 LV 50 41 Obama +9
IBD/TIPP 07/07 - 07/11 854 RV 40 37 Obama +3
Newsweek 07/09 - 07/10 1037 RV 44 41 Obama +3
Gallup 06/30 - 07/02 2641 RV 47 43 Obama +4
Rasmussen 06/29 - 07/01 3000 LV 49 44 Obama +5
CNN 06/26 - 06/29 906 RV 50 45 Obama +5
McLaughlin (R) 06/26 - 06/29 1000 LV 46 38 Obama +8
Pew Research 06/18 - 06/29 1574 RV 48 40 Obama +8
Demo Corps (D) 06/22 - 06/25 2000 LV 49 45 Obama +4
Time 06/19 - 06/25 805 RV 47 43 Obama +4
LA Times/Bloom 06/19 - 06/23 1115 RV 49 37 Obama +12
Franklin&Marsh 06/16 - 06/22 1501 RV 42 36 Obama +6
Newsweek 06/18 - 06/19 896 RV 51 36 Obama +15
FOX News 06/17 - 06/18 900 RV 45 41 Obama +4
USA T/Gallup 06/15 - 06/19 1310 LV 50 44 Obama +6
ABC News/WaPO 06/12 - 06/15 RV 49 45 Obama +4
Cook/RT Strat 06/12 - 06/15 880 RV 44 40 Obama +4
Reuters/Zogby 06/12 - 06/14 1113 LV 47 42 Obama +5
Ipsos 06/05 - 06/11 LV 50 43 Obama +7
Rasmussen 06/08 - 06/10 3000 LV 49 44 Obama +5
Gallup 06/07 - 06/09 2633 RV 48 41 Obama +7
NBC/Wall SJrnl 06/06 - 06/09 1000 RV 47 41 Obama +6
Hotline/FD 06/05 - 06/08 806 RV 44 42 Obama +2
IBD/TIPP 06/02 - 06/08 916 RV 43 40 Obama +3
CNN 06/04 - 06/05 921 RV 49 46 Obama +3
CBS News 05/30 - 06/03 930 RV 48 42 Obama +6
USA T/Gallup 05/30 - 06/01 803 RV 47 44 Obama +3
Cook/RT Strat 05/29 - 05/31 802 RV 44 43 Obama +1
Pew Research 05/21 - 05/25 1242 RV 47 44 Obama +3
Newsweek 05/21 - 05/22 1205 RV 46 46 Tie
Reuters/Zogby 05/15 - 05/18 1076 LV 48 40 Obama +8
IBD/TIPP 05/12 - 05/18 953 A 48 37 Obama +11
Rasmussen 05/13 - 05/16 3000 LV 44 45 McCain +1
Gallup 05/12 - 05/16 4385 RV 44 47 McCain +3
Demo Corps (D) 05/13 - 05/15 1014 LV 48 46 Obama +2
Battleground 05/11 - 05/14 1018 LV 49 47 Obama +2
Quinnipiac 05/08 - 05/12 1475 RV 47 40 Obama +7
ABC/Wash Post 05/08 - 05/11 1122 A 51 44 Obama +7
POS/GQR 05/07 - 05/08 800 LV 48 43 Obama +5
LA Times/Bloom 05/01 - 05/08 1986 RV 46 40 Obama +6
Ipsos 04/30 - 05/04 755 RV 46 42 Obama +4
USA T/Gallup 05/01 - 05/03 803 LV 47 48 McCain +1
CBS News/NY T 05/01 - 05/03 601 RV 51 40 Obama +11
Hotline/FD 04/30 - 05/03 803 RV 47 43 Obama +4
CNN 04/28 - 04/30 906 RV 49 45 Obama +4
FOX News 04/28 - 04/29 900 RV 43 46 McCain +3
CBS News/NY T 04/25 - 04/29 956 RV 45 45 Tie
NBC/WSJ 04/25 - 04/28 1006 RV 46 43 Obama +3
Rasmussen 04/24 - 04/27 1600 LV 46 46 Tie
Pew Research 04/23 - 04/27 1323 RV 50 44 Obama +6
AP-Ipsos 04/23 - 04/27 760 RV 46 44 Obama +2
Newsweek 04/24 - 04/25 1203 RV 47 44 Obama +3
USA T/Gallup 04/18 - 04/20 1016 A 47 44 Obama +3
Cook/RT Strat 04/17 - 04/20 802 RV 45 44 Obama +1
Newsweek 04/16 - 04/17 1209 RV 48 44 Obama +4
Reuters/Zogby 04/10 - 04/13 1049 LV 45 45 Tie
ABC/Wash Post 04/10 - 04/13 1197 A 49 44 Obama +5
Rasmussen 04/10 - 04/13 1600 LV 42 49 McCain +7
AP-Ipsos 04/07 - 04/09 749 RV 45 45 Tie
Gallup 04/02 - 04/06 4380 RV 45 45 Tie
CBS News/NY T 03/28 - 04/02 1196 RV 47 42 Obama +5
Hotline/FD 03/28 - 03/31 799 RV 44 46 McCain +2
Rasmussen 03/27 - 03/30 1600 LV 42 47 McCain +5
NBC/WSJ 03/24 - 03/25 800 RV 44 42 Obama +2
Pew Research 03/19 - 03/22 1248 RV 49 43 Obama +6
FOX News 03/18 - 03/19 900 RV 43 44 McCain +1
CBS News 03/15 - 03/18 RV 48 43 Obama +5
CNN 03/14 - 03/16 950 RV 47 46 Obama +1
USA T/Gallup 03/14 - 03/15 685 LV 49 47 Obama +2
Reuters/Zogby 03/13 - 03/14 1004 LV 40 46 McCain +6
NBC/WSJ 03/07 - 03/10 1012 RV 47 44 Obama +3
Cook/RT Strat 03/06 - 03/09 802 RV 43 45 McCain +2
Newsweek 03/05 - 03/06 1215 RV 46 45 Obama +1
ABC/Wash Post 02/28 - 03/02 LV 53 42 Obama +11
Cook/RT Strats 02/28 - 03/02 802 RV 47 38 Obama +9
LA Times/Bloom 02/21 - 02/25 RV 42 44 McCain +2
AP-Ipsos 02/22 - 02/24 755 RV 51 41 Obama +10
USA T/Gallup 02/21 - 02/24 1653 LV 47 48 McCain +1
Pew Research 02/20 - 02/24 1240 RV 50 43 Obama +7
CBS News/NY T 02/20 - 02/24 1115 RV 50 38 Obama +12
FOX News 02/19 - 02/20 900 RV 47 43 Obama +4
Hotline/FD 02/14 - 02/17 803 RV 48 40 Obama +8
Reuters/Zogby 02/13 - 02/16 928 LV 47 40 Obama +7
USA T/Gallup 02/08 - 02/10 706 LV 50 46 Obama +4
AP-Ipsos 02/07 - 02/10 1029 A 48 42 Obama +6
Time 02/01 - 02/04 958 LV 48 41 Obama +7
CNN 02/01 - 02/03 974 RV 52 44 Obama +8
Cook/RT Strat 01/31 - 02/02 855 RV 45 43 Obama +2
ABC/Wash Post 01/30 - 02/01 1249 A 49 46 Obama +3
FOX News 01/30 - 01/31 900 RV 44 43 Obama +1
NPR 01/29 - 01/31 1000 LV 47 48 McCain +1
Rasmussen 01/25 - 01/27 1200 LV 41 47 McCain +6
NBC/WSJ 01/20 - 01/22 1008 A 42 42 Tie
LA Times/Bloom 01/18 - 01/22 1312 RV 41 42 McCain +1
Rasmussen 01/16 - 01/17 800 LV 46 41 Obama +5
USA T/Gallup 01/10 - 01/13 1106 LV 45 50 McCain +5
Hotline/FD 01/10 - 01/12 803 RV 41 39 Obama +2
CNN 01/09 - 01/10 840 RV 49 48 Obama +1
Rasmussen 01/04 - 01/06 800 LV 43 46 McCain +3


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#polls

Here's every poll taken since the begining of the year for Hillary vs McCain

Poll	     Date      Sample    Clinton (D) McCain (R) Spread
Reuters/Zogby 04/10 - 04/13 1049 LV 41 46 McCain +5.0
ABC/Wash Post 04/10 - 04/13 1197 A 45 48 McCain +3.0
Rasmussen 04/10 - 04/13 1600 LV 43 47 McCain +4.0
AP-Ipsos 04/07 - 04/09 1000 A 48 45 Clinton +3.0
CBS News/NY T 03/28 - 04/02 1196 RV 48 43 Clinton +5.0
Hotline/FD 03/28 - 03/31 799 RV 41 50 McCain +9.0
Rasmussen 03/27 - 03/30 1600 LV 40 49 McCain +9.0
NBC/WSJ 03/24 - 03/25 800 RV 44 46 McCain +2.0
Pew Research 03/19 - 03/22 1248 RV 49 44 Clinton +5.0
FOX News 03/18 - 03/19 900 RV 46 43 Clinton +3.0
CBS News 03/15 - 03/18 RV 46 44 Clinton +2.0
CNN 03/14 - 03/16 950 RV 49 47 Clinton +2.0
USA T/Gallup 03/14 - 03/15 685 LV 51 46 Clinton +5.0
Reuters/Zogby 03/13 - 03/14 1004 LV 40 48 McCain +8.0
NBC/WSJ 03/07 - 03/10 1012 RV 47 45 Clinton +2.0
Cook/RT Strat 03/06 - 03/09 802 RV 45 47 McCain +2.0
Newsweek 03/05 - 03/06 1215 RV 48 46 Clinton +2.0
ABC/Wash Post 02/28 - 03/02 LV 50 47 Clinton +3.0
LA Times/Bloom 02/21 - 02/25 RV 40 46 McCain +6.0
AP-Ipsos 02/22 - 02/24 1000 A 48 43 Clinton +5.0
USA T/Gallup 02/21 - 02/24 1653 LV 46 50 McCain +4.0
Pew Research 02/20 - 02/24 1240 RV 50 45 Clinton +5.0
CBS News/NY T 02/20 - 02/24 1115 RV 46 46 Tie
FOX News 02/19 - 02/20 900 RV 44 47 McCain +3.0
Hotline/FD 02/14 - 02/17 803 RV 40 48 McCain +8.0
Reuters/Zogby 02/13 - 02/16 928 LV 38 50 McCain +12.0
USA T/Gallup 02/08 - 02/10 706 LV 48 49 McCain +1.0
AP-Ipsos 02/07 - 02/10 1029 A 46 45 Clinton +1.0
Time 02/01 - 02/04 958 LV 46 46 Tie
CNN 02/01 - 02/03 974 RV 50 47 Clinton +3.0
Cook/RT Strat 01/31 - 02/02 855 RV 41 45 McCain +4.0
ABC/Wash Post 01/30 - 02/01 1249 A 46 49 McCain +3.0
FOX News 01/30 - 01/31 900 RV 44 45 McCain +1.0
NPR 01/29 - 01/31 1000 LV 45 48 McCain +3.0
Rasmussen 01/25 - 01/27 1200 LV 40 48 McCain +8.0
NBC/WSJ 01/20 - 01/22 1008 A 44 46 McCain +2.0
LA Times/Bloom 01/18 - 01/22 1312 RV 46 42 Clinton +4.0
Rasmussen 01/16 - 01/17 800 LV 47 45 Clinton +2.0
USA T/Gallup 01/10 - 01/13 1106 LV 47 50 McCain +3.0
Hotline/FD 01/10 - 01/12 803 RV 43 47 McCain +4.0
Rasmussen 01/09 - 01/10 800 LV 38 49 McCain +11.0
CNN 01/09 - 01/10 840 RV 50 48 Clinton +2.0


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_clinton-224.html

To say that Hillary polled better vs McCain than Obama did is to rewrite history.

Also if you look back thru 2007 you will see McCain led Hillary for much of the time.

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highplainsdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 05:16 PM
Response to Original message
1. LOL! You left out the last two months of the primaries for Clinton!
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 05:21 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. Umm...polls stopped doing head to head for Hillary vs McCain in April.
The time when it was apparent she would not be the nominee.

Your ferocity would have been nice to have during the actual primaries.

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highplainsdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 05:32 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. No, they didn't. For instance, Gallup, May 23, with graphs showing May 1-23 results,
The topic I posted about it here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6091735

And the Gallup page:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107482/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Leads-Clinton-51-44.aspx

Obama had a 7-point lead over Clinton that day, but he was tied with McCain, while Clinton led McCain by 5 points.

Look at the graphs for how Clinton and Obama did against McCain all month. Obama's poll performance was very uneven, with him trailing McCain about half the time.

Clinton had trailed McCain by 1 point for the first two days of the month, then tied him the third day, and then led him in Gallup's poll for the next few weeks.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 05:42 PM
Response to Reply #5
8. Looks like RCP failed to include Gallup.
Hillary's "advantage" disappeared a week or two after your reference

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107626/Gallup-Daily-Both-Democrats-About-Even-McCain.aspx

Plus when you look at all the polls (not just Gallup for a brief period), you can see that he clearly outperforms Hillary.

Again, where were you when we could have used you in the primary fight?

Why are you fighting so hard AFTER the nominee has been chosen?




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highplainsdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 05:57 PM
Response to Reply #8
12. Where was I? I was helping take care of ailing family members.
And my "fighting" now -- which isn't "fighting" -- is to explain why we need a unity ticket, because I don't want to see us lose to McCain. It's ridiculous that in this forum, where so many possible VP choices have been presented again and again, there's a lot of shrieking whenever Clinton is mentioned. GDP is so out of touch with most of the Democratic Party.

And I didn't like seeing so many Clinton supporters driven from what's supposed to be a Democratic forum, not an anti-Clinton forum.
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highplainsdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 05:39 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. More from Gallup, 5/23 -- said Obama hadn't done better than Clinton against McCain since mid-April
Obama has not exceeded Clinton's performance versus McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking since the April 17-21 tracking period.


I'll have to check some June polls, but as I recall, that trend continued.

And a poll done last month of hypothetical choices showed that Clinton would do even better than Al Gore against McCain, and much better than Obama was doing against McCain then.
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RedShoes Donating Member (658 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 05:18 PM
Response to Original message
2. aside from the fact you left out the last two months of the Clinton campaign, wtf does this have to
do with the general election? Here's a hint: you aren't running against Clinton anymore. Let it. GO.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 05:24 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Because the poster above you insisted that Hillary polled better against McCain.
Edited on Wed Aug-20-08 05:47 PM by rinsd
This was not true.

If you went to the link provided you would see that polling firms stopped doing Hillary v McCain head to head in April when it was apparent she would not be the nominee. (ON edit: Gallup appears to have continued polling head to head)

Also I was here fighting for Hillary for two years, so you can STFU Johnny come lately.
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highplainsdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 05:34 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. Gallup didn't stop. Please see my reply above.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 05:45 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. Already responded and noted that Gallup called it even in their last poll.

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redqueen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 05:45 PM
Response to Original message
10. Oh Jesus... where is that coming from?
Where are people saying that?

And WHAT THE HELL FOR?

:banghead:
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 05:47 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. See poster replying
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 06:16 PM
Response to Original message
13. None of that matters
The variable is who would be polling better vs. McCain now and through election day, Obama or Hillary? Obviously we'll never know. My opinion was Hillary.

2008 was going to be very close regardless, once we isolated a black or a woman for nominee. That's why I'm not uptight. Any projection of a huge victory was not logical.
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