Beware the polls in the next few days ...

[annxburns]

Look, I have experienced the angst and recriminations when a poll is bad for Kerry. The next few polls will not be good for Kerry.

Just RELAX. The swift smears have been turned around, but they won't show in the polls yet. Kerry will be down or even with Bush (Gallup will have him down a lot) but it will not mean anything. The swift smears are starting to backfire, but it is going to take a week or so to show up.

What I predict is that Bush will go into the convention tied or even somewhat ahead (CNN/GALLUP) of Kerry. Then after the convention Bush will show maybe a little pick up. Bush will lead Kerry by a few points at the end of August/beginning of September. Then we will see a significant erosion for Bush through Sept and October.

So prepare for it. I am expecting several "Kerry's campaign is a disaster" threads myself.

[skooooo]

1. How do you know for sure they will be down??

[annxburns]

8. Because the methodology the polls are using is bogus ...

I agree with Michael Moore on this one. The polls are measuring who voted last time (2000) - and they are skewed toward Bush and his supporters. I actually believe that Kerry is up 53% to Bush 47% now - just based on voter anger and turnout. There was a lot of misplaced apathy in the 2000 race.

I think that CNN/GALLUP is totally bogus. They over value hard core republicans and in turn, hardcore republicans have an outsized effect on these polls. So anything that charges up Bush's base really effects CNN/GALLUP results.

I am creating a model for my statistics class to suss this out but I am not there yet.

Anyway, I just want people prepared. Every time any little thing goes wrong for Kerry I see these "the sky is falling" threads.

Think of it this way - it will be cold and snowing in my area when I vote for Kerry .... It is a marathon, not a sprint.

[Warpy]

9. Gallup will make sure they're down

For instance, just today, the Bush team started blitz advertising here in New Mexico, that smear boat ad.

Folks, we need some elves out there to find out where the money to run these commercials is coming from. We know that Bob Perry of Houston funded the production of the ads. However, this is serious money, probably in the millions, and the numbers just aren't adding up.

The best thing to do is ignore the polls for the next month or so. Bush will probably get a bit of a bounce from his Nashville tent revival.

The best thing Kerry can do during the week he's not running his ads is hire a team of rabid libel lawyers to go after Regenery. He's got a good case, and just letting that book slide is a tacit admission that it might all be true. Lawyers will ferret out all the funding and all the connections to the Bush team, and Kerry's campaign fund will be kept separate.

Kerry's campaign played that bunch like a fiddle today. They've got to keep it up.

[fearnobush]

2. That is to be expected, Bust should get at least a 5pt bump.

Could be more, but don't get all blaa and worried. The debates turn polls the greatest, not that Kerry will do great, but he will hold his own.

[still_one]

5. That's exactly what I want

people to have a low expectation of Kerry in the debates

[wolfgirl]

3. actually,

we've been hearing the rumblings already...it will be a disaster if Kerry doesn't start shutting the door in B's face by ignoring the SBVT
by cutting straight to the issues. All he has to do is say, "Hey, they are continuing to lie/smear in a lame attempt to keep us off message. But that stops now. My plan for the future......"

Kerry can do it...but we (the thinkers out here) have to make sure the media gets the message that we (the public) want them to cover the issues and stop pandering to Bush & Co. We have to help Kerry get the message out!

[still_one]

4. Sorry to disagree with you

Objectively looking at things the best the swift boat pukes could hope for is no change

I do not think the convention will create much either way either

Things that will move the polls:

War in Iraq, good or bad
capture of bin laden or lack of it
job creation/job losses
energy prices
a surprise event


If nothing changes then the debates will determine our fate

[David Dunham]

6. Economist has Kerry 47% B 44%. Rasmussen still has the race even.

That's not so bad.

[Cuban_Liberal]

7. The "Chicken Little Democrats" will make themselves heard...

I'm prepared for it...

[annxburns]

10. Yep, I actually have a lot of confidence that Kerry ...

... will win. I see a strange convergence of history here.

The republicans attack Kerry's post-service testimony on the same day the Abu Graib story comes out?

Kerry is both a war hero and a war protester? And we have a legitimate war on terror and a bogus war on Iraq?

There are too many coincidences for me.

I have been humbly praying, as Kerry has said, not that God is on our side, but that we are on God's side. And I see evidence of that.

I just want to reassure people (and myself too). This will be a long haul - but we will win. We must.

[alcuno]

11. The outrage over the allegation of atrocities in Vietnam rings

hollow. There were atrocities and Abu Ghraib just reinforces the idea. This is a generation that has seen multiple Vietnam era movies. How bizarre for them to allege that Kerry's testimony was false.

[OzarkDem]

29. Better to be realistic

I can't ever recall a presidential election when we told ourselves bad poll numbers were ok.

Kerry's campaign still isn't very well organized, disciplined or focused. They have a way to go.

[Poiuyt]

12. I expect Bush will get a 15-20 pt bounce from the convention

Anything less and it will be a huge failure for Bush.

[joanne]

13. Cant possibly get that kind of a bounce

Most voters minds are made up. People that are still undecided at this point arent likely to join the Chimpy camp in great numbers.

[lancdem]

14. I think pduck

is setting up a meme for us to use. :)

[tblue37]

32. He is making a joking reference

to Bush campaign spokesman Matthew Dowd, who set the bar ridiculously high for Kerry by saying they expected Kerry to get a 15-point bounce from the Dem convention.

[TruthIsAll]

18. Surely, you jest. * won't get squat - except for Gallup.

nt

[LostInAnomie]

27. I think I saw a stat on TV...

... that said that there hasn't been a incumbent re-elected who didn't have at least a 16 point lead after their convention.

So anything less will be a disappointment.

[MoonRiver]

15. Why don't YOU relax. I think we'll see a Kerry surge!

Chickenhawks have come home to roost on Crawford.

[TruthIsAll]

16. Ah, Cheney Gallup for crissakes. Zogby just came out and Kerry

is rocking! Gallup is always wrong. You said it.

Nothing to worry about. And Bush will never get the lead, except inGallup, the OULIARS.

Here is a model to show to your class.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[PROGRESSIVE1]

24. Fox still has Kerry ahead too.

Gallup is as reliable as a Ford Pinto.

[tritsofme]

26. You didn't answer me the other day,

do you think Zogby Interactive polls are credible?

[Proud2BAmurkin]

17. Polls are a lagging indicator by at least one week.

.

[jefferson_dem]

19. Watch the fav - unfav numbers and bush's approval

as much as the head-to-head. Favorablity is a good leading indicator and approval is a big time proxy for vote for incumbent. Could be that Kerry get socked a bit on his favorability rating and we see more undecideds but chimpy doesn't benefit. Maybe a backlash even, but probably not yet.

Another thing is that i don't necessarily buy into the likely voter models this round. We know the anti-w vote is geared up and ready to turn out. I personally know of several "non-voters" who will go Kerry because they can't stand W.

And have people noticed the substantial generation gap that's opened up? If young people finally turn out as surveys indicate they may, Kerry will rock n' roll to the White House.

[tblue37]

34. I call it the Jesse Ventura factor. (eom)

[Scorpious_Maximus]

20. Good post

We need not be consumed by poll numbers.


This election is about more than just electing a president, it's a turning point for the country.

Everyone take a deep breath and remember we're in this for the long haul.

[David Dunham]

21. LA Times (out Thurs.) Bush 49% Kerry 46%

See politicalwire.com First time Bush has lead all year.

[jefferson_dem]

22. Tagline Reads: "Poll Shows Kerry Hurt By Attacks"

Political Wire got an advance look at the new Los Angeles Times poll showing President Bush "moving slightly" ahead of Sen. John Kerry "for the first time this year." Bush had the support of 49% of registered voters, compared to 46% for Kerry.

The newspaper's analysis indicates Kerry "has been nicked by attacks on his service in Vietnam."

The "small shift" from last month's poll "is within the poll's margin of error. But it fits with other findings in the Times Poll showing the electorate edging toward Bush over the past month on a broad range of measures, from support for his handling of Iraq to confidence in his leadership and honesty."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2004/08/25/poll_shows_kerry_hurt_by_attacks.html

[annxburns]

23. That's what I mean ...

people will view that and we will get 100 threads on du saying that Kerry's campaign sucks and he has to hit back harder.

They will ignore the boomerang effect of the last few days because tha takes at least a week to sink into the public's awareness.

THE KEY NUMBER IS 50%. Bush has not been able to get above 50 percent in the votes or in the approval number. If that holds - even if Kerry is down 49% to 43% - then BUSH is in trouble, not Kerry.

In the end, the right track/wrong track and incumbent approval numbers predict more than the head to head.

[Chichiri]

25. I suggest we make this thread a sticky.

If annxburns is correct, then this thread would help to keep us mentally pointed in the right direction, rather than all in a panic.

In the meantime, perhaps he or someone could explain why polls are, as has been suggested, about a week behind the actual truth.

[BillZBubb]

28. Nice bit of preemptive lowering of expectations!

Now when we see the results of how the mishandling of the SwiftScum ads has hurt Kerry, you can say, but gosh the "turn around" hasn't shown up yet. Classic. There won't be any backfire.

Here's what I predict: Bush* has climbed up in the polls because Kerry's team blew it on the SwiftScum. Bush* will get an additional small bounce from the RNC. We will NOT see SIGNIFICANT erosion for Bush* through September and October. In fact, his position may well strengthen.

Kerry is now in the fight of his life. This election is still winnable, but it's going to be difficult.

[Joe Turner]

30. Smirko has Big Time problems too

"Kerry is now in the fight of his life. This election is still winnable, but it's going to be difficult."

While I think your guarded outlook has some validity, Smirk has a litany of problems himself, particularly with his base that, in my opinion, will limit his upside. Truth is, there are many angry conservative republicans that feel Bush has sold them out and are staying home or voting for other candidates on election day. These are the Fire in the Belly GOP vote drivers that Make or Break a campaign. Defections here have vote multiplier consquences...no matter what the polls say.

IF the Kerry Campaign can get on message, stay on message and react quickly to the daily attacks from SmirkCo, Kerry has the advantage in this election.

[quinnox]

31. I agree

Next few days there will be many threads proclaiming end of Kerry campaign because of polls. It never fails. They said same thing back in the primaries, and look what happened.

Kerry is winning in the electoral college even now. Bush is in deep trouble, and is fighting steep odds of being re-elected.

It is Kerry's election to win or lose at this point, he is in the driver's seat.

[Guaranteed]

33. Great post.

Take it easy, folks. It's going to go back and forth a bit. We're already on it, swinging it the other way. And we haven't even used our big guns.

It's alright.