LA Times poll Bush 49-46

[59millionmorons]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2004/08/25/poll_shows_kerry_hurt_by_attacks.html

[David Dunham]

1. Not big news. Economist still has Kerry 47% Bush 44%.

Rasmussen is even.

[59millionmorons]

3. I agree

But Rasmussen and Economist dont drive the news like the Times does.

[Yavin4]

Damn

crap!

[Thrill]

2. The ads worked

thats clear. And they will get another boost after their bash Kerry fest called the RNC next week. The Kerry Campaign needs to start back going negative. Thats what worked. When they were bashing Chimpy during the primaries Kerry had a 10 point lead. Playing nice doesn't win shit in politics

[David Dunham]

5. Excellent point.

[kodi]

6. sometimes the low road takes you places the high road can't

this is one of those times.

[Democat]

40. Sometimes? How about all of the time - Republicans control all!

The "high road" Democrats don't control a single branch of government.

After the last two elections, we hope that our leaders would have learned that lesson.

Kerry can talk about "positive" all he wants, but he better learn to slam Bush harder and faster than Bush can slam back if he actually wants to win.

[kodi]

63. the problem is that dems want to actually govern after they win

and it is hard to do that after running a dirty campaign. the GOP doesn't give a damn about governing.

their motto is "our backs are turned friends, steal what you can."

[lancdem]

9. They're probably waiting until after the RNC

I'm sure the CNN poll will be even worse.

[dolstein]

10. When the HELL did Kerry have a 10 point lead?

You said it. Now back it up.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. here...

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen2.htm


I don't believe his lead on 2/17/04 was twelve points but there it is....

[stepnw1f]

4. Are People Really That Dumb?

Are these attack ads working for Bush or Turning people of or both?

[lancdem]

7. 15 percent of Dems will vote for Bush?

Are they crazy? God, that's depressing. :(

[Davis_X_Machina]

17. Southern Dems, mostly.

And the last of the 'Reagan Democrats'.

It's not that unusual to find 10% or so crossover on this sort of poll. This is why the slight registration advantage that Dems have doesn't really signify much.

[lancdem]

20. But even Gore only lost 12 percent of Dems to Bush

and this is vastly different from every other poll.

[tritsofme]

26. Is it really vastly different?

Polls over the last month have showed the race tightening to bush's advantage.

[asjr]

8. I am puzzled by that poll. Does Shrub really have

that much clout in CA?

[TSIAS]

11. I believe that's a national poll

I'm sure Kerry still leads in CA.

[asjr]

16. Thanks, I will change glasses.

[annxburns]

12. Please see this thread ... Beware of the next polls ...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=669740&mesg_id=669740

[Cha]

21. Thanks for that link, annxburns.

I saw that thread before but didn't go on..now I'm glad I did.

Because I keep forgetting about those voters who didn't register before..and I think they are going to make a Huge difference.

[Andromeda]

76. Thanks for posting that...

I feel a little better now because what you said makes sense.

These polls are really hard on the nerves.:scared:

[Proud2BAmurkin]

13. That's a relief.

Was expecting a 7 or 8 pt drop for Kerry after the first round with Swift Boat Scumbags.

[NoMoreMrNiceGuy]

14. I don't believe it for a second...

I can't believe those ads about what Kerry did or didn't do 30 something years ago negates all the fuck-up this administration has had. I don't believe anyone who voted for Gore will switch to *ush. I don't believe majority of independants who voted for shitsack last time will go with him again. I don't believe the majority of Green voters will vote Green or Nader(if he stays in) this time around and they certainly AINT voting for idiot boy. I do believe we have registered more voters than the reichwing have. I do believe that Kerry will win in a landslide if the election is a fair one. I don't believe anything the press tells me.

[Cha]

18. I know you have the right Idea!

I will Not believe anything the press or media says...

bush is a loser and he's gonna lose again in Nov. Only this time he's gonna get his loserass back to crawford.

[sweetladybug]

19. I'm telling you, we NEED someone to come forward with a sex scandal

about Bush (perferably a man) That would get the Republican's attention and they will turn on him. Other people's sex lives are all they are worried about.
ELECT KERRY/EDWARDS 2004!!!!

[NoMoreMrNiceGuy]

24. Maybe we should use all that $$ we've raised...

and pay off a couple of inside repugnant...one to grab *ush in a suggestive way and the other to secretly photograph them in what apprears to be the throes of passion!!! They'll do anything for $$$$$. If only!!!LOL

[Tarheelhombre]

22. Also, the media has been reporting that the economy is upbeat, and we are

Winning in Iraq. IF that continues, we have a very rough time ahead.

[mconvente]

23. eh

Even though this is not the best of news, let's not get ahead of ourselves. It's still a tie mathematically using statistics (math never lies!) so let's stay positive. It's true those Swifty ads have hurt Kerry, but we've weathered the storm pretty well. When people continue to go jobless, don't have healthcare coverage, start sending their kids to underfunded schools, these people will begin to get back to being concerned only on the issues. And polls have shown that when Kerry sticks to the issues, he has leads in everyone except the war on terror (which obviously isn't working - ie, Russia).

What we need to do is get our local media informed about the misnomer of the RNC. The Repugs are sending out moderate people to represent their party, when their main core is far from it. Look at Cheney's take on Gay Marriage less than a week before the convention; definitely not what he has said in the past. It's because many people have gay friends and that stuff offends them. Plus, whether or not you are for or against gay marriage, I think the majority of the population does not want to amend our nation's most sacred document for that issue - it would stick out like a sore thumb.

Overall, what this tells us is that we need to campaign even more! Even though all of us here know those Swift Liar ads are bogus, there are many non-political people in this country who will still vote for Bush because they got a measly $400 back in taxes. What we need to do is show them how much Bush has done wrong for our country and that is what will turn the masses toward Kerry.

[NoMoreMrNiceGuy]

27. True math never lies but polls sometimes do...

you can skew a poll so more repugs are called...you may call only likely voters which do not account for the new people we've registered. The media can lie about numbers. Sorry...I DON'T BELIEVE IT FOR A SECOND...KERRY IN A LANDSLIDE.

[digno dave]

83. They dropped this bomb too early...

there is already a backlash and after the RNC it will go the way of the Abu Ghraib issue. People get sick of the media over-saturation, regardless of the severity of the issue. Think about it...the AGhraib investigation came out and pasrtially blamed the pentagon and the only person we hear talking abnout it is John Kerry. That's becasue the is was "overplayed" in the media and no-one wants to hear about it anymore. This same fate will befall the SBVeterans. I just hope the Kerry campaign doesn't ovberplay their hand(what is up with the request for a Dept. of Justice investigation?).
The time to come out with this was early October, not now.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. There's A Poster Here Who Every Day Uses Mathematical Wizardry....

I pointed out that polls can only tell you how you are doing at any point in time...


He and others ignore that simple truism at their own peril....

[tritsofme]

29. I wonder if LA Times now gets excluded

because they are shilling for Bush?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. It Was The Most Ridiculous Exercise I Have Even Seen...

Lots of mathematical derring do ripped from any kind of theoretical mooring....


It was absurd....

[Democat]

28. Kerry let the Swift Boat Lies go on too long without any serious response

It's unfortunate that those DU "hand wringers" who said this needed to be dealt with right away look to have been correct.

Kerry better have learned a lesson from this - you must respond forcefully and quickly to every major attack.

Maybe we don't like the rules, but they were established a long time ago.

Negative attacks almost always work.

[mconvente]

32. Yeah but going negative is going to hurt

Because the Kerry-Edwards campaign was established at the DNC as going positive. If they start negative it's gonna be rocket fuel for Repugs like Scarass and O'Reilly. They will be all over Kerry for "flip-flopping" again (which is complete bullshit anyways). So I think we just have to have faith in the 57% of the population who aren't complete morons (IE - independents and dems)

[59millionmorons]

33. Not really

Look the polls usually always swing when there is alot of attention towards a subject. Imagine how Bush supporters felt when Bush's numbers went down after the attack on his TANG and how his numbers went down after Abu Garaib(sp). Kerry will bounce back just like Bush did. Although I have to say I did enjoy it for the last month and a half when Kerry lead in 98% of the polls.

[Democat]

35. I agree that it should swing back the other way and we should win

Kerry made a mistake by not taking care of the Swift Liars right away.

He allowed them two weeks of nearly unapposed attacks on him for some reason.

There was reason to allow them to attack him for two weeks without fighting back.

Now that he is finally fighting back, it will be another few weeks of full time coverage. If we would have started fighting the day they launched their attack it would have probably been over by now or at least burned out much faster.

After waiting for this moment for 30 years, he should have been much better prepared to fight this battle.

As long as he learned his lesson and he's willing to fight from here on out, hopefully everything will be fine and we'll still win this.

Kerry cannot show anymore weakness or let Republicans kick us around anymore in this campaign if he wants to win.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

30. The Swift Boat Scum is the WORST Karl had. Bush is toast.

.

[regnaD kciN]

37. Probably not, sadly...

This is only the first SBLFB volley, aimed at "softening up" the image of Kerry as a war hero. The second will be to attack him for his "treason" after returning from the war, and it's going to be a lot more potent.

The reason for the first volley was strategic -- it would be hard to convince anyone that Kerry's "Winter Soldier" testimony constituted treason if he was established as having served heroically. If the Bushies can initially recast Kerry as, not a war hero, but a self-serving spotlight-grabber with no great compunction about making up stories to burnish his halo, then the "giving aid and comfort to the enemy while our boys were giving their lives" charge becomes a lot easier to stick.

Combining this "phase two" with the RNC is going to be a double whammy for Bush, and, if not countered well, could well give him a lead of landslide proportions (i.e. greater than 10%). The bright side, if there is one, is that Kerry and his campaign surely must have known that the Repugs were going to play the "treason card" eventually, and must surely be expected to have a plan in place to handle that already...I hope.

:scared:

[tritsofme]

43. We could have played up the AWOL card

If McAuliffe didn't blow it back in March.

[Spoon]

62. The AWOL card was played on Bush in the last election.

I'm not sure why you think McAuliffe blew it in March.

[59millionmorons]

31. Calm down, we will be getting alot of polls this week

Let's just see how they pan out. We know gallup will have Kerry down 7-10 points. But let's wait to see what they say as a whole.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. try this

when you look at the poll it doesn't confirm the theory that the Swift Boat brouhaha has hurt him...


anyway we need to wait to see how this plays out....



this is half time in the Swift Boat brouhaha....


Here's the poll....


I hope ya'll are registered...


www.latimes.com

[59millionmorons]

41. After reading the article

I have doubts about this poll. 15% dem voting for Bush? 52% approval rating? the new economist poll has his approval in the low 40's.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

42. The 52% Approval Explains More In That Poll Than Democratic Defections....

We'll see

[tritsofme]

47. The Economist is by itself in this regard

Most major polling outfits are showing Kerry's lead evaporating and moving into statistical noise either way.

[59millionmorons]

48. Actually this poll did too

He was ahead 47-41 in the last poll.

[Robbien]

38. Ha!

These are the voters on which BushCo is basing their campaign?

Ha! No way.

[richmwill]

39. Ohhh, I think I may be sick (n/t)

[mconvente]

Must we not forget

That Dewey was up in the polls by 20% only a few months before election day in the late 1940s, and we all know how that turned out...

Polls offer some line of information, but I'd say it's a blurred line at best.

[mconvente]

44. double post

oops!

[dolstein]

45. Read the last paragraph -- the LAST FRIGGIN PARAGRAPH

The LA Times poll shows that the "undecided" voters have an overwhelmingly negative view of Bush. Gee, I wonder why the LA Times didn't mention this until the very end of the story. Hmmmmmm . . .

Now imagine an alternative universe . . where the headline reads "Effect of Bush attacks on Kerry statistically insignificant."

[citoyen]

57. In fairness, the LA Times is the furthest left of the major dailys, and

their editorial page did just question whether Bush has the "basic decency to hold the office of President," so they deserve a little slack.

The bullshit journalism you cite is indeed bullshit, but not partisan bullshit. Until the undecideds decide it's not considered news. It's information more valuable than the news, but not "news." The editor says, "get back to me when they're willing to actually say they'll vote for Kerry."

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

64. That's their editorial page...the slant of MANY of their political writers

is as RW as Fox News.

[West Coast Democrat]

73. But their approval polls have always been good to Bush*

He's been above 50% all year in LA Times approval polls. I think they're the only major poll with that kind of result.

[DeepModem Mom]

75. You're right about the LA Times, citoyen -- welcome to DU!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

78. That is a very bright silver lining indeed

thank you for finiding it!

[flpoljunkie]

82. Exactly. 5% undecideds overwhelmingly negative on crucial indicators!

http://www.latimes.com/news/custom/timespoll/la-na-poll...

One potential bright spot for Kerry: The 5% of voters who said they were undecided were overwhelmingly negative on the direction of the country, the impact of Bush's policies and the decision to invade Iraq.

Those voters were also much more likely than the electorate overall to say Kerry's service in Vietnam "demonstrated qualities America needs in a president." And they were less likely to see Kerry's protests when he returned as a sign of flawed judgment.

That could make them a receptive audience as Kerry fights to regain his balance from the Swift boat veterans' offensive, even as Bush approaches the stage for his convention.

______________________

This 5% undecided voters could make all the difference for JK in November, since there are so very few undecideds. This should be very encouraging to the Kerry campaign.

[WI_DEM]

46. come on folks, we knew it was going to be close and back and forth

up until the election. That Kerry the challenger is even with either slightly ahead, even, or slightly behind the incumbent president is really a remarkable thing. There is more than two months until election Day,prepare yourselves for Bush to come out of his convention maybe leading nationally by five or so points. But remember this--it won't last!! There is a big campaign ahead of us and at least three debates. Those will be critical!! The debates will decide the election. I'm confident Kerry will do well. Ofcourse, publically he has to downplay his chances. The issues are on our side and the tide is turning on the Slime boat ads. Remember this poll was done before the major Kerry counter-attack.

We are going to WIN!!

[hansolsen]

50. Good. It just means Shrub will have a hard time getting a bump from the

GOP Convention next week. He might even drop in the LA Times poll by the time the demonstrators get done with him.

[Jack Rabbit]

49. From Salon's War room today concerning Cleland in Crawford:

From Salon.com
Dated Wednesday August 25
Please click here.

The point was made, anyway. Cleland's pilgrimage to Crawford is the latest sign that the Kerry campaign smells blood in the water stirred up by the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth. By any conventional measure, the Swifties' scurrilous allegations are bad news for Kerry. But now the story has started to turn on Bush a bit: The Los Angeles Times and the New York Times have largely debunked the allegations, and on Wednesday morning, Bush's top political lawyer, Benjamin Ginsberg, a key player in the Republicans' legal fight for the White House in 2000, resigned over his ties to the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth. Fence-sitting voters are likely still getting the message that there's some question about Kerry's military record, but they also may be getting the message that Bush -- whose military record is nothing but questions -- had at least a little to do with the anti-Kerry smears.

Let's see how this plays out. The polls were seeing now are probably reflecting the initial impact of the Swift Vet Smears. The SBVFT have been exposed as liars and Bush is afraid to run away from them. Let's see if there's a boomerang effect stating now.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

51. You Are Right...

This is just half time and we're down 10-3....

Now we go to the locker room and make the proverbial adjustments...


If your team was down 10-3 would you give up?

[mconvente]

53. Hell no

Get Peja and Reggie shootin' some 3s and we are right back in it. Max is our Peja!

(Basketball referenece! ha!)

[Jack Rabbit]

54. It's 1-1 at the end of 3 innings

(Have to get some baseball in there).

[Guaranteed]

52. I doubt this is "true," and even if it is

it'll go back to the way it was when we finally stop talking about it.

On edit: And I think that the numbers will begin changing again, considering that everybody is refering to it as a smear.

[citoyen]

55. This poll looks OK to me.

I don't doubt these horse-race numbers, but I don't worry about them either. (If the horse-race numbers were reversed we would hear that the poll means nothing because it is registered voters, not likely voters. Why is the LA Times doing registered this late anyway?)

At this point the only numbers that count are Bush's job performance and Right-track/wrong-track.

People really don't care about SBVFT; Independents in this poll say 5-1 Kerry earned his medals. (Burying Iraq news has been more damaging than hyping SBVFT news.)

Anyway, the debates will be decisive this time around. That favors Kerry because all of Bush's "A" material is stuff he cannot use face-to-face. (Is Bush really going to challange Kerry for being stupid enough to give a retarded man the power to invade Iraq?)
____________

"In the survey, a slight majority of voters said they believed the country was on the wrong track. A majority also said the country was not better off because of his policies and needed to set a new course. And 45 percent said they believed his policies have hurt rather than helped the economy."

[faithnotgreed]

56. hi citoyen. welcome to du and thanks for the thoughtful post

[tritsofme]

59. But overall approval is at 52%

That is concerning.

[West Coast Democrat]

70. No. It's little change from their last poll in July, which was an outlier

* was at 51% in that poll. LA Times is normally one of the most dependable positive polls for *...he's never dropped below 50% in that poll.

http://www.pollingreport.com/bushjob2.htm

[tritsofme]

74. Strange, I wonder if they use "adults" or "registered voters"

to figure approval.

For it to stay that high, it would suggest to me that they used a registered voter model for approval.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

77. Good Point....

The less likely you are to vote the more likely you are to identify as Democrat.. That's why Kerry does better among registered voters than likely voters and better among "adults" than registered voters...

[AmerDem]

58. Ignore ! this is a set up for the RNC Masquerade

Gallups will be the biggie they will be pushing! they are setting up these polls to get there positive spin for the Masquerade. watch!

[tritsofme]

60. Oh come on!

LA Times is not part of some VRWC.

They are one last few news services with integrity IMHO.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

61. Sometimes We Create Our Own Alternate Realities On This Board.....

It does us no service in the end....

[AmerDem]

67. Thanks for the input

Socrates!

[AmerDem]

66. you will eat your own words

[DemocratSinceBirth]

68. You Really Think The L A Times And the NYT

are part of the VRWC....


Please......

[AmerDem]

69. I'm saying

That the repukes have their hands in many many things that you aren't probably aware of. The polls aren't going to swinging that fast without someones hand on the scale. I'm not going to sit here and guess how, I just know this is the same story over and over. We have no idea at this point how the poll was taken and I know that swift liar ad did not have a major effect on the majority of Americans. I did have a slight effect on vets to be sure.

The Gallup polll is on it's way out, Nazi rove is already trumpetting Gallup with everything he has and right after that by coincedence the RNC Masquerade!

I will never fall for the repuke bullshit! If it stinks like shit and floats like shit it sure isn't lemons!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

72. I Have Problems With Gallup...

I question their methodology more than their veracity...


All the other recently released polls show the race tightening a little bit....


www.pollingreport.com


All the polls still indicate a close race just some now give a slight edge to AWOL.....

[LynnTheDem]

65. maybe it's what we need

If enough of the people in this country actually elect bush, legitimatly, then fine. Unfortunately that's democracy. It'll be the end of our democracy, but that's also a part of democracy.

If the majority want an authoritarian faschist state, then democracy decrees that's what they get. That's certainly what bush wants.

And maybe that and another civil war to get our freedoms back (another King George) is the only way we'll reunite this country and learn again to value liberty.

"Liberal" is a sneer now. It means generous. It means caring and giving. It means making sure children go to bed at night with enough food in their tummies. It means old people not having to go to several different grocery stores so they can get away with buying enough pet food to survive. It means people not losing their homes and their life savings to pay for expensive medical care.

It means good educations available to all. It means extending a helping hand to those who need one. It means not waging wars just to wage wars to feed the machines to wage more wars.

Liberal used to mean valuing humanity. But now it's a dirty word.

If the majority of people in this country are willing to give up freedom to be safe, then democracy decrees that's what they should have. That the safest nation from terrorism in the world is North Korea should be pause for thought; only in an absolute dictatorship can a nation be totally safe from outside terrorism.

It's not "appeasement" to use one's head intelligently. Oppressing people leads to terrorism. Killing people leads to terrorism. Treating people unfairly leads to terrorism. Iraqis are fighting us now because we stormed in without being asked or wanted; we guarded the oil wells and the Ministry of Oil, and ignored all else; we've clearly shown the Iraqis their dead and wounded literally don't count; we've treated them as though they were stupid children, and we've plundered their country.

They can read; they know Halliburton made $200 billion in profit from Iraq to date. They also know they barely have food to eat, little to no water, little to no electricity, rising crime, and no say in their own country.

That is producing terrorists. Only they're called freedom fighters from their viewpoint.

They didn't use to hate us, the Iraqis. They do now. And because our actions are also clearly seen by the rest of the world, even if not by us here in America, they hate us too. Egypt used to have a high opinion of us; now only 2% do.

How can we fight terrorism without the world's co-operation? Information is the key; we need to know who and how and why and where and when. We need allies to be sharing such information with. We don't have many allies left.

Americans point to the UK as our new "best friends" and good ally. Some of the UK government are, perhaps. But the majority of citizens of the UK also view us unfavorably. Even Blair has started pulling back from the US. He has his own country and his own people to answer to. And if he wants to keep his job, he must answer to them. And the majority of them don't care much for what we're doing.

How eager will countries be to pass on intelligence to us when they hate us? How eager will they be to co-operate with us?

Terrorists aren't caught by armies; they're caught by police and intell agents and international co-operation. Last year, right here in Texas, the FBI uncovered the largest cache of chemical and biological weapons ever in this country. What good was our army for keeping us safe from that? The largest military base in the free world is here in Texas. And they had no knowledge at all about it.

Yet our FBI and police and border & port agents are understaffed--many are currently Iraqmired--and underfunded.

Some 2500 Americans and 300 other nations' people died in the 911 attacks.

So far in return we've killed an estimated 50,000 civilians in Afghanistan and Iraq, and 1098 soldiers, almost 1000 of them ours.

We can keep attacking nations and/or build ourselves into a fortified country and keep us safe from outside attacks.

Yet more American children are killed every year by their own parents than the number who died on 911.

Drunk-driving accidents kills an average of 18,000 American teens yearly. That's more than six September 11 attacks. Every year. We don't even notice these deaths. Every year. We're certainly not willing to give up any of our freedoms for them.

Terror is an emotion. Missiles and wars and killing people don't kill an emotion. They do, however, breed more terrorists.

Americans seem very willing to hand over their freedom to the government...although not for 3000 children murdered every year and not for 18,000 children killed by drunk-driving every year.

But it always takes a war to get those freedoms back.

[West Coast Democrat]

71. I'd like to point out that the LA Times poll has had higher * approval #s

than any other poll for the past year. * has never dropped below 50% in an LA Times poll, and the July poll had him at 51%. Even Gallup shows that * dropped well below 50% this year.

http://www.pollingreport.com/bushjob2.htm

[Beetwasher]

79. Cool! This is GREAT!

Bush is set up to get the first significant NEGATIVE bounce in post-convention history! Ha Ha! You heard it here first!

[pmbryant]

80. I think this is one of those statistical outliers

And this is why I think so:

While 3% of voters who called themselves Republicans said they would vote for Kerry, Bush drew 15% of all Democrats, and 20% of Democrats who consider themselves moderate or conservative, the poll found.

I find these numbers simply unbelievable, and completely out-of-line with what virtually all previous polls have shown.

Something's fishy here.

--Peter

[Tarheelhombre]

81. The problem is that in order to decrease Bush Approval Rating below 50%...

We need the economy to do much worse than it is doing now and Iraq to go even worse than it is now.

[dennis4868]

85. no....

we need the damn media to their fucking job and expose all of Bush's crimes over the last 3 years. Can you imagine what kind if lead Kerry would not have if the liberal media was objective and investigated the crimes and lies of George Bush the past 3 years....Kerry would either have a 15-20 point lead or Bush would be an impeached president.

[ArkDem]

84. You can't believe anything coming from that right wing rag.