Federal Review Composite: Kerry 316, Bush 222 (8-25-04)

[phillybri]

http://www.federalreview.com/compositepoll.htm

BUSH GAINS, KERRY LEADS
Bush 48.5% – 222 EV | Kerry 49.9% – 316 EV
EV without Toss Up states (under 2% margin): Bush 191| Kerry 247| Toss 100
August 24, 2004

Bush has made gains this week, but Kerry still leads. And it doesn't matter how close, it's a pass-fail test.

One new measure listed on the Election Simulation. For each state with movement in the probability from the previous week, the Simulation shows which candidate gained. All states that moved went toward Bush.

But his probability remains low this week, at 26%.

I expect further change over the next three weeks in Bush's favor. If not, then things are looking bad for the Bush campaign.

[rullery]

1. Nice graphics, but...

why show Bush states as blue and Kerry states as red? Very confusing, given that we are accustomed to think of red and blue states as just the opposite of this chart!

[treepig]

2. historical accuracy?

yeah, i know 9-11 changed everything but the convention has been to show the incumbent as blue and the challenger as red.

kudos for this site for taking a small stand against the lunacy that's now engulfing our nation.