Do you really believe that Bush will draw more dems than he did last time?

[fujiyama]

The LA Times poll showed Bush drawing 15% of democrats, while Kerry only draws 3% of republicans. With that, Bush still only beats Kerry by 3 points.

Also, does anyone believe that more democrats will vote for Bush this time than last time? I know there are some - Zell Miller, Ed Koch types that will, but overall do you think that 15% - which is 4% more than last time will vote for Bush?

I find it unlikely. I see Kerry beating Bush decisevely among independants. For example, A poll from CO showed Kerry beating Bush by 11 points among independants. While that may be a bit high (and I'm skeptical of Kerry's chances in that state), it's still impressive and ultimately the election will be decided in the battleground states.

Almost every poll has shown Kerry beating Bush among independants. Bush BEAT Gore among this group by 2 points according to exit polls. If Kerry is drawing more independants than Bush drew last time, then there's no way in hell that Bush is drawing more democrats than he did last time. While I understand that many of these self identified democrats are dixie crats that never changed their voter registration, I still don't think Bush will win more of them than last time.

[lil-petunia]

1. hard to believe

MOre and more people are dissed at what this president has done to our country.

[still_one]

2. I don't know, but if they do the reason will be fear

they will believe that it would be dangerous to switch leaders in the middle of a war. That is why it is critical that the message get out that if we don't change leaders it is dangerous

[Inland]

3. BWAAHAHAHAHA

Bush isn't going to pull any dems. fifteen percent my eye.

[billybob537]

4. LMFAO Yeah right

Not only will he not draw Dems, he will not draw half of the military, and 20% of moderate Repubs.

[Pirate Smile]

5. No, I think he will get fewer Dem's then in 2000 which makes me

question that poll.

It contradicts my experience and that of many people involved in politics. There is a blog entry on this at Hardblogger on MSNBC's website.

[Philostopher]

6. In open primary states ...

there are lots of Republicans who register as Democrats so they can vote for the Democrat they want 'their boy' to run against in the general election. These people usually vote for the Republican in the general election. Now, if they were polled, they could legitimately say they were registered Dems, but are voting for the Republican candidate for office, right? What percentage of that 15% they claim belongs to this group?

Just another blip, I know, but those of us who live in open primary states know this happens. Dems do it, too, but they wouldn't bother in a year when a Republican was the incumbent because it's wasted effort; only Repubs would have done it this year.

[klook]

9. Good point

Thanks for pointing that out--the bit about Republicans registering as Democrats to knock out a primary candidate they don't like. They did this in droves in Georgia in 2002 to defeat Cynthia McKinney (and may do it again in 2006, if there's not a fight in any of the Republican races).

For these people to be counted as "registered Democrats voting for Bush" is ridiculous.

[Philostopher]

10. And yet, at least in black and white ...

legit. Things like this make me shrug over a lot of polling -- there's no way to prove people do what they say they'll do. When polls drive the news (which they are doing progressively more often), instead of being reported as news, they lose at least some of their cachet as a legitimate indicator of the 'public temperature.'

[hadrons]

7. someone post an article saying Repuke pollsters couldn't really find ...

anyone who voted for Gore voting for Bush this time, but plenty of people who voted for Bush (in 2000) not doing so again

[vi5]

8. Never underestimate fear....

I have no doubt that he will pull those numbers and it will be because of fear.

[kwolf68]

11. That is so absurd

It doesn't deserve comment.