Is the LA Times Poll Right??

[goclark]

THE TIMES POLL
Bush Edges Ahead of Kerry for the 1st Time

The president gains in several measurements but remains in a statistical tie. Ads on the senator's war record seem to have an effect.

Bush or Kerry? What the polls say now, and an interactive map to test your own scenarios.




Bush Edges Ahead of Kerry for the 1st Time


Please God tell me this is not so!

This was on the front page of the Los Angeles Times today.

www.latimes.com


POLITICAL CAMPAIGNS

PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE



By Ronald Brownstein, Times Staff Writer


snip: WASHINGTON — President Bush heads into next week's Republican National Convention with voters moving slightly in his direction since July amid signs that Sen. John F. Kerry has been nicked by attacks on his service in Vietnam, a Times poll has found.

For the first time this year in a Times survey, Bush led Kerry in the presidential race, drawing 49% among registered voters, compared with 46% for the Democrat. In a Times poll just before the Democratic convention last month, Kerry held a 2-percentage-point advantage over Bush.

That small shift from July was within the poll's margin of error. But it fit with other findings in the Times poll showing the electorate edging toward Bush over the past month on a broad range of measures, from support for his handling of Iraq to confidence in his leadership and honesty.

etc., etc, etc
:crazy:

[Mizmoon]

1. This election will be decided in the last week

It doesn't matter what the polls say now, either for or against Kerry. It will be decided at the end, in the last seven days or so.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

4. And even then it's all about getting your voters to the polls

If the polls say it's even (or Kerry slightly behind) at that point, then we are in good shape.
Most everyone I know will crawl through glass to vote this year.

[dennis4868]

2. I have been following politics for....

along time and a poll in August is pretty much meaningless....I do believe the Swift Boat Vets for Bush ads have hurt Kerry to a degree....but i think the damage is only in the short term....

[goclark]

8. I am just so frustrated

because the more polls that say smears work the more they will smear.
All they need is about a three pt. smear to win this election.

I am getting physically ill, from any indication, that the philosphy of this unadministration is not regonized by the huge majority of the American people.

Can't they see that their Emperor has no clothes on!

[dennis4868]

9. Can't they see that their Emperor has no clothes on

Thye can't see if the media does not let them see it :-(

There are so many crimes and lies of Bush and his thugs in the WH and most people dont even know it....thanks to the so-called "liberal" media.

[vickie]

3. Not according to the new bi-partisan Battleground poll released

a few moments ago. It shows Kerry ahead by points (moe). It's done by Celinda Lake and Edward Goes. It was conservative against Gore last election but is respected because its bipartisan. Here's the link. Also check out the Political Insider site for poll information.

Link http://tarrance.com/battleground/082604/Battleground_Charts.pdf

[lancdem]

5. That is a bit reassuring

but it was done more than a week ago. The Times poll is more recent.

[newsguyatl]

6. be calm --

you're going to see lots of changes from now till november, INCLUDING another BUMP for bush after next week's convention... go ahead and prepare yourself for it now... there'll be speak of it being bush's to lose, how there's no way kerry can win, yadda yadda.

remember, kerry does best when he's behind.

[flpoljunkie]

7. Read to end. 5% undecideds overwhelmingly negative on crucial indicators!

http://www.latimes.com/news/custom/timespoll/la-na-poll...

One potential bright spot for Kerry: The 5% of voters who said they were undecided were overwhelmingly negative on the direction of the country, the impact of Bush's policies and the decision to invade Iraq.

Those voters were also much more likely than the electorate overall to say Kerry's service in Vietnam "demonstrated qualities America needs in a president." And they were less likely to see Kerry's protests when he returned as a sign of flawed judgment.

That could make them a receptive audience as Kerry fights to regain his balance from the Swift boat veterans' offensive, even as Bush approaches the stage for his convention.

______________________

This 5% undecided voters could make all the difference for JK in November, since there are so very few undecideds. This should be very encouraging to the Kerry campaign.

[Zynx]

12. Voters in general are negative on the state of the country.

Only 40% say we're going in the right direction. We need to lay out our plan now so that we can pick up a lot of those who say "Gee, I don't like how things are going now, but Kerry doesn't have a plan".

[Zynx]

10. I normally withold criticism of Kerry's campaign strategy, but...

I will say that I think that trying to pin these ads on Bush unless we can conclusively do it with something other than circumstantial evidence is not the best course of action here. We should simply declare that these ads are lies and lay out all the independent investigations that have done so and then refocus the campaign on the softening economy and the chaos in Iraq.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

11. Presidential Politics in two words:

Labor. Day.

That's when the chocks are pulled from beneath the wheels.

[goclark]

14. But that is only 12 days from now

I think Kerry needs to move on and just get a Meme:

Kerry and everyone else in his campaign should implant the Truth Chip in the minds of the American public:

"Smear, smear,smear
That's all you'll hear.
They are talking about the past..
We are talking about TODAY and TOMORROW!"

"Smear, smear,smear
That's all you'll hear.
They are talking about the past..
We are talking about TODAY and TOMORROW!"


"Smear, smear,smear
That's all you'll hear.
They are talking about the past..
We are talking about TODAY and TOMORROW!"

That needs to be said over and over and over and over again!

We can not afford to waste precious time responding to each and every smear that these slick pigs send up the media pipe line. Their version will get all the sound bits, not ours.

For the next 12 days and beyond Democrats need to focus on one theme: TODAY and TOMORROW!


:kick:

[Jack Rabbit]

13. I'm really not familiar with this poll

I'd have to back up and see what they have been showing over the last several weeks and how it lines up with other polls in order to make any kind of judgment.

We should not be surprised if Bush got some mileage out of the initial impact of the Swift Boat ads. Now that the Swifties have been exposed as partisan hacks, their Independence called into question and Mr. Bush has been seen as too afraid of the consequences to back away from them, we should also expect to see whatever benefits Bush gained from the ploy negated.

[goclark]

15. I live in Los Angeles

and for the most part,the Times has been fair IMO about the election.

Robert Scheer is brilliant and his columns are always the best.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. I Trust The L A Times, the NYT, thw WP, and Even The WSJ Polls...

nt

[WiseMen]

17. Lies Work Folks!!!, Even when factually refuted some % of swingers will

harbor doubts.

Bush/Rove et al are not fools when it comes to winning political
campaigns.