Battleground Poll out (Kerry by 44/43)

[Frodo]

A far superior and more thorough poll than the recent releases.

edit for link - http://www.tarrance.com/battleground/082604/Battleground.pdf


Caution - fairly large pdf


Plenty of good/bad news for both sides in there. I'll post links to their analysis as I find them.

[59millionmorons]

1. tough poll

This poll including in 2000 rarely has the Democrat in the lead.

[annxburns]

2. That's good. I am a little worried ...

... about the reaction to the CNN/Gallup poll today - It always is pro Bush and will show some effect of the swift smears. Those swift boat smears are backfiring now but it will take a week or so to show up in the polls.


Bush coming out today to ban the 527s is proof it is starting to backfire ...

[Jack Rabbit]

3. Jack Rabbit's rule of thumb for the Gallup Poll

Subtract 5 points from Bush and give 5 points to Kerry. That usually brings it in line with the other polls.

[Frodo]

5. Why is everyone assuming that?

Has anyone actually seen the poll?

[Frodo]

4. Democratic Analysis

http://www.tarrance.com/battleground/082604/Democratic_Analysis.pdf

Republican at

http://www.tarrance.com/battleground/082604/GOP_Analysis.pdf

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. This Poll Was Taken Before The Swift Boat Brouhaha

It would be like doing an analysis of American Naval strength on December 6, 1941....


Before you jump to any inferences all I am saying is we need to see how the Swift Boat brohaha and the blowback turn out...

[Frodo]

7. I hadn't noticed that - I forgot how LONG they take on their data

I still prefer this poll to all of the others out there.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. The Swift Boat Brouhaha Has Me Frosted (nt)

[WI_DEM]

8. good poll, but it is a week old

is LA Times more recent? not that it matters, but that is how it will be spinned.

[WI_DEM]

10. this is the most significant thing in this poll

Country moving in Right direction/STrongly: 27%
Country moving in Wrong direction/Strongly: 45%

This is why Kerry will ultimately win over wavering or undecided voters.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

11. This poll almost ALWAYS puts the Repuke ahead

.

[Frodo]

12. This is NOT a biased poll

It's run in a completely balanced way (with both a Republican and a Democrat partisan coordinating it - not a partisan pretending to be unbiased).

Look in to their methodology, this is hands down the BEST poll out there. And they report EXTENSIVE internals.

That doesn't mean they aren't subject to random error, but they handle it best.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. I Don't Know If There Is An Intentional Bias

but their final pre election poll in 00 had it 50% -45% in favor of AWOL......

The strange thing is Celinda Lake who was the Democrat pollster predicted a Gore popular vote win in 00


I think most polling firms play it straight but your bias affects your sampling....


Republican pollsters tend to overestimate the number of Republicans who will show up at the polls and Democratic pollsters do the same thing...

[Frodo]

14. That's because Bush WAS ahead when their last poll ran.

Remember how things closed so quickly at the end there?

Remember a little story about one of the candidates having a DUI conviction?

The poll also still had an "undecided" category. Come election day, all of those people make a choice (unless they end up with Buchanan of course).

[West Coast Democrat]

15. That's quite a large number of undecideds

and the media has been saying for months now that there are few undecideds in this race. Apparently not the case in the BG states?

[GOPBasher]

16. It's so close, it's coming down to turn out.

This is such an extremely polarized electorate. It's going to come down to turn out.