Why I think we're in great shape to win this thing

[PlanetBev]

2004 is nothing like 2000. Here's why:

1. To many people, Bush was an unknown. He was being touted as a moderate who would govern from the center. Even the most seasoned pundits were taken in by this. That spin won't fly this year.

2. Although the SBVT is getting a lot of airtime, Kerry is hitting back. Gore was blind-sided and used the high-minded, but wrong-headed tact, "I'm staying on the high-road." We now know there is no high road to stay on, not against these lunatics.

3. Making fun of Gore was a cottage industry and the media elevated it to a art form. They haven't been able to paint Kerry as a buffoon.
Ain't gonna work this time.

4. Lieberman was as exciting as a dust ball in the corner. Edwards is certainly a lot more inspirational.

5. The debates. It was so painful watching Gore sigh and roll his eyes that I turned off the debates, cause I had a feeling that he was doing himself in. The next day his poll numbers sank like a turd in a well. Kerry will conduct himself well and hold his own.

6. Nader is not the factor he was four years ago. Gone are the Susan Sarandons, Tim Robbins, Danny Glovers, Michael Moores, etc. Plus, it's been well reported that Nader is getting help from the Republicans this year to get on the ballot, not an action well thought of by his former supporters. Also, he's not going to be on many ballots this year.

Anybody care to add anything or comment on our outlook for November 2?

[quinnox]

1. Mood of the country is for change

I think some of the polling isn't picking this up. My opinion - Bush has to have some big breaks to win, and is fighting the odds. As long as Kerry doesn't do anything too stupid, he has a winning hand right now.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

2. You are right. Bottom line is your point #1. Bush is an incumbent now.

People know what a shrubco presidency is like. They want change. Very different from Bush/Dukakis, shrubya/Gore.

[Inland]

3. Point by point...

1. Agree. In fact, the more the country sees of Bush, the less it likes him. That was true on the campaign trail in 2000, too, and why Bush relies so much on beggaring the reputations of his betters, like McCain and Powell and anyone else they think has a rep as not an idiot. But its tough to remain entirely unknown as presidetn, isn't it?

2. Agree that Kerry is hitting back, but not in kind: he IS taking the high road in a manner that both stresses his accomplishments AND what dirtbag lies are being spread AND that an honorable man would disavow them AND that reminds people subtlely of Bush's less than stellar record of service.

3. I think the media is coming around to believing that its okay to not hold the democratic nominee in dismissive contempt.

4. Edwards is winning votes.

5. Gore sucked so bad in the debates I was ashamed. Who told him to go stand next to Bush? How could he be so bad?

6. Naderites and others who are too pure to help the democrat win are coming around, after a painful lesson.