WHEW. Gallup out. Likely voters (pro * measure) - Kerry 46, Bush* 48

[Proud2BAmurkin]

Gallup poll was taken August 23-25! The Swiftboat Scumbags drown.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2004/08/26/politics1430EDT0600.DTL

Other polls released Thursday also found the race very close with Bush-Cheney at 48 percent, Kerry-Edwards at 46 percent and Nader-Camejo at 4 percent in a CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll.

A Battleground Poll, sponsored by George Washington University, found Kerry-Edwards backed by 48 percent, Bush-Cheney backed by 47 percent and Nader-Camejo backed by 3 percent.

[Zynx]

1. That could have been worse.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

6. I thought it would be MUCH worse, polls are a lagging indicator

Kerry will improve in the next few days.

AWOL's internal polling must SUCK. That's why he called John McLame.

[jezebel]

15. What does "polls are a lagging indicator" mean?

New here and am not familiar with this. Thanks.

[Zynx]

16. Polls lag events by several days typically.

The full effect is not evident for several days typically.

[jezebel]

17. That's great then. The polls definitely would include the smear

but wouldn't have had time for the backlash to show. Bet they were hoping their crap would be more effective.

[faithnotgreed]

23. hi jezebel - welcome to du!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. Heh heh. The "backlash" hasn't even begun yet.

Kerry is in great shape. Bush is definitely going down.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

8. Yup. This poll taken in the heat of the Swiftboat Scumbag's mediafest

.

[David Dunham]

3. Fox News: Kerry 44 Bush 43 Nader 2

[MikeG]

4. Nader isn't at 4.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. The Gallup Poll On Election Eve Was 48% Chicken George And 46% Hero Al....

And we won....


Kind of....

[Proud2BAmurkin]

7. Yup. Gallup's "likely voters" polls overrepresent Repukes

.

[annxburns]

9. Jaysus, these are great ....

Gallup is always pro-Bush - remember it was 51% to 47% right after convention.

These are great numbers - they slimed Kerry with the worst trash and he still is fighting.

Now we just have to get through the convention with a small bounce by Bush (less than 6 points) and I think we are in really really good shape.

I was predicting 54% to 44% Bush so these numbers are a huge relief.

[featherman]

14. still two weeks of Bush climb left

so be prepared. Anything close (3%) to even in an average of the national horse race polls two weeks from now and we're in good shape. It's all about the Electoral College and holding the DEM states during this upcoming Bush mini-surge.

[WI_DEM]

21. I agree with you

[GiovanniC]

22. Bush Will Get an ENORMOUS Bounce After His Convention

If Bush isn't leading Kerry by 15-20% after the RNC, I'd say that's a crushing disappointment for his campaign.

[59millionmorons]

10. CNN is reporting Kerry 48-47

What is the truth?

[Zynx]

11. That might be registered voters.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. You Are Correct...

The pukes shot their wad and this is all they have to show for it...


The next Swift Boat Veterans for Bush ad will have Kerry eating a live Vietnamese baby...

[Zynx]

24. That was their best card and we survived it.

[West Coast Democrat]

12. Bushco fell by 2% from the last Gallup Poll

last poll had * at 50%...unless this is the likely voters poll, in which case there is no change.

[NWHarkness]

18. Thanks, I was about to look that up

So, right at the heart of the Swiftliars mess, Kerry's position relative to Bush actually improved in what has been Bush's best poll.

[West Coast Democrat]

25. Looks like the poll w/ Nader included remains little changed...

I'm not sure about the other scenarios yet. I thought the full poll was released.

[Connie_Corleone]

13. Not as bad as I expected.

n/t

[WI_DEM]

19. Nader will not get anywhere near 4%

he isn't even going to be on many state ballots--at least 2 of that 4% will go to Kerry.

[DemMother]

26. I don't think he'll get over one percent

It's stupid and misleading to even include him in these polls.

[WI_DEM]

27. How is CNN reporting these results?

hopefully not as a big deal for Bush.

[Zynx]

28. The fact that the last two weeks have been two rough ones for Kerry

in terms of media coverage makes this remarkable, though I don't trust the accuracy of Gallup polls.

[yellowcanine]

29. It is way too early to be using "likely voter" models, imo. I do believe

registered voter polls are a more accurate predictor up to about 2 weeks before the election. Just my opinion.