Kerry AHEAD by one in Gallup (Registered voters) 48-47 taken Aug 23-25

[Proud2BAmurkin]

First time I've seen those numbers

[kikiek]

1. That confirms it Kerry in a landslide. Good news!

[Snivi Yllom]

2. also has * up by 3, 50-47 LV

not all good news

[West Coast Democrat]

8. Aren't those the same results as the last Gallup poll?

[Dick_Tuck]

3. Now Bush will get a bump from the convention.

I really think it'll take three good debates to win now. I hope the media really plays the poverty numbers big.

There's another side to this, and that's the likely voter algorithms may be out of whack this time. Kerry has a huge lead with young voters, who may be more inclined to vote. They're usually the lowest turnout group. There's also the Howard Stern schwing voters, who probably don't vote that often, unless Howard gives them a reason to.

[Zynx]

4. Who says that he will get a bounce?

[Dick_Tuck]

5. I don't ever remember a case where a nominee didn't....

The question will be how long it lasts, and what will happen after Labor Day, when people will be paying more attention.

[Zynx]

7. They also always used to get a bump out of the SOTU address.

Bush fell this year. Past returns are no indication of future results.

[Dick_Tuck]

11. Liberal Oasis has found the silver lining...

Check out their blog:

http://liberaloasis.com/

[Beetwasher]

6. Bush is Set Up for the First Negative Bounce In Post-Convention History

Because of the timing of Kerry's assault against the smear, the post convention polls will contain the backlash effect. Bush is going in either slightly ahead or neck and neck. The post convention polls might very well have him losing ground due to the smear backlash.

[sjr5740]

9. What does the LV poll show

I thought the likely voters polls were considered more accurate.. unless they don't mesh with Gallup's preconceived notions of course

SJR

[Zynx]

10. Gallup's likely voter sample is the most volatile and least accurate #

in all of polling.