New Polls:

[Nicholas_J]

National Polls:

FOX News: Kerry 44, Bush 43, Nader 3

LA Times: Bush 47, Kerry 44, Nader 3

IBD/TIPP: Bush 43, Kerry 43, Nader 5

Tarrance: Kerry 44, Bush 43, Nader 1

CBS News: Kerry 46, Bush 45, Nader 1

Rasmussen (8/26): Bush 47, Kerry 46

State Polls:
ME: Kerry 49, Bush 44

MI: Kerry 48, Bush 45

FL: Bush 49, Kerry 47, Nader 2

AZ: Bush 47, Kerry 39

NJ: Kerry 49, Bush 39, Nader 4

WA: Kerry 48, Bush 43, Nader

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[papau]

1. Cnn-Gallup-USAToday detail (Kerry 48/47 RV, but Bush 48/46 LV

CNN Gallup USAToday has Kerry 48/47 RV,, but Bush 48/46 LV


Details on CNN-USAToday-Gallup 8/26 poll


Other polls released Thursday also found the race very close with Bush-Cheney at 48 percent, Kerry-Edwards at 46 percent and Nader-Camejo at 4 percent in a CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/p ...

Posted 8/26/2004 3:56 PM
Poll: Bush has slim lead over Kerry
By Jill Lawrence, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — President Bush enters his convention week holding a slight lead over Democrat John Kerry and regaining ground he lost after the Democratic convention on the key issues of handling terrorism and Iraq, a new USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows.
In a head-to-head matchup, Bush led Kerry 50%-47% among likely voters, while Kerry led Bush 48%-47% among registered voters. When independent Ralph Nader is included, Bush leads Kerry, 48%-46%, among likely voters. Nader gets 4%.<snip>

Bush's favorable rating of 54% was his highest since April. By contrast, Kerry's 52% was his lowest since January. <snip>

At the same time, the poll found that most people, 63%, think Kerry is definitely or probably telling the truth about his military service. Half say Bush is very or somewhat responsible for the ads the group is running, although Bush and his campaign have denied any involvement. And 56% say Bush should denounce the ads.

Pollster Mark Mellman, a senior Kerry adviser, says the poll shows "the vast majority of Americans understand that this smear against John Kerry is in fact untrue. They hold President Bush responsible for it." Mellman also said that based on individual state polls, Kerry is ahead in states with 320 electoral votes. A candidate needs 270 to win the presidency.<snip>

• Bush leads Kerry 49%-43% on who would handle Iraq better. Kerry was ahead 48%-47% right after the convention.

• Bush leads Kerry 54%-37% on who would handle terrorism better. Kerry had risen to 41% after his convention.

• Bush leads Kerry 54%-34% on who people think is "a strong and decisive leader." Kerry had halved that lead to 10 points right after the convention.

[elperromagico]

4. Ahh, Media Semantics.

When Bush is two points ahead in a poll, he "has a slim lead." When Kerry has a four point lead in a poll, the race is a dead heat.

Ain't that somethin'?

[Nicholas_J]

5. The swift boat stuff

Is having an adverse effect, but this seems to be showing some singns of fallng away in some areas, and still having effect in others. Bush's latest attacks and threats to sue MoveOn and other 527 groups will have another effect, but who will be hirt most is yet to be seen.

There is going to have to be some clarification as to what is appropriate for the 527 groups and what is not.

Clearly, libel isnt, and without evidence, and in view of the fact that the entire record is against them. the Swift Boat Veterans activitiesare the type that should be controlled. But then again, the first attacks on Bush's military record that came from MoveOn would fall into the same category, as there was nothing to rely on to prive that position.

On the other hand, Move On was perfectly justified in doing ads that stated that during the last 4 years, the Bush Administration has done nothing that has reverese unemployment significantly, and there are still a couple of million more people without jobs since Bush came to office than were before hand. would be perfectly justifiable. But the fact that Move On and other groups have moved on to attacks that are closer to libel, rather than making clear justifiable statements, MoveOn has perhaps given the Bush Campaign some of the ammunition it needs to go after ALL political advertising.

There would be a clear first amendment problem if theBush Admin tries to stop these groups from expressing the truth about what has occured during the last four years. But once any of these groups go on to accusations that cannot be proven, due to the existing records, or even due to the lack of evidence, they may be creating problems that will result in more restriction than freedom. WHich would favor Republicans in most cases.

[papau]

9. NBC/WSJ poll unchanged since Reagan death)President/Kerry still deadlocked

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5833253 /

NBC News Poll:
President, Kerry still deadlocked
Some troubling numbers for Bush on war, economy
By Mark Murray
NBC News
Aug. 26, 2004WASHINGTON -<snip>According to the survey, which was conducted by Hart/McInturff, Bush and Dick Cheney get support from 47 percent of registered voters, Democrats Kerry and John Edwards get 45 percent, and Independents Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo get 3 percent. Those numbers are virtually unchanged from the last NBC/Journal poll, which was released on July 22. Overall, 50 percent of registered voters believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction, compared with 36 percent who believe it’s headed in the right direction. And asked whether Bush deserves re-election, 50 percent say no, while 46 percent say yes. All of these results are practically identical to the findings from the July survey.

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R). July 19-21, 2004. N=813 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.4
"If the election for president were held today, and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney were the Republican candidates, John Kerry and John Edwards were the Democratic candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo were running as independent candidates, for whom would you vote?" If unsure: "Well, which way do you lean at this time?"
Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards Nader/Camejo None/Other (vol.) Unsure % % % % %
7/19-21/04 47 45 2 1 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Democrat Stan Greenberg and Republican Bill McInturff.
In the poll, conducted July 18-20, Kerry was favored by 47 percent of respondents, the president by 46. The poll's margin of error is 3.46 percent. But the survey also shows Kerry leading in swing states -- those in which neither party's presidential candidate dominated in the 2000 election.Fifty-four percent of poll respondents also continue to see the country as being on the wrong track, compared with 40 percent saying things are going in the right direction. That also matches the June poll. And President Bush's approval rating has fallen to 49 percent -- the first time it has slipped below 50 percent (where it was in June), according to the latest poll<snip>
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R). June 25-28, 2004. N=1,025 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

"If the election for president were held today, and George W. Bush were running as the Republican candidate and John Kerry were running as the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote?"

GeorgeW. Bush JohnKerry Depends(vol.) Neither/Other (vol.) NotSure % % % % %
6/25-28/04 47 47 1 1 4
5/1-3/04 48 45 1 2 4
3/6-8/04 48 45 1 2 4

[RobertSeattle]

2. New Poles

[Reciprocity]

3. I’m feeling a little Pollish myself.

Spike is a Silver Polish
Known in England as the Poland, this is the most popular of the crested breeds. It is also one of the oldest, being known as a pure breed as early as the sixteenth century. The Polish breed probably originated on the Continent, but nothing is truly known about its origins
===============
As far as the other polls. I think the amount of the protesters at the RNC is going to a negative for Bush in the polls. The media loves to glom onto stories about protesters because the make great images on film and print. In Boston there were just a few hundred. In NYC they are expecting protesters in the hundreds of thousands.

[RogueTrooper]

6. Don't forget the YouGov polls

YouGov are a British polling company who are earning a healthy reputation for accuracy. They are currently doing a weekly poll on the American election. In http://www.economist.com/media/pdf/YouGovH.pdf">this week's poll:

Head to Head
Kerry 47% to Bush's 44%.

There are also polls on Gay Marriage ( trending downward in people opposition and slowly upward in acceptance ).


The Polls: http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=2907805

YouGov's http://www.economist.com/media/pdf/YGrecord.pdf">form
[br />This is their first American election so their anaylsis model may not be fully calibrated. However, they also could be the most accurate poll of them all.

[progressivebydesign]

8. YouGov is about where I see the race right now.. cool. N/T

[Thrill]

7. I really don't care what these polls say

The bottom line is. If Kerry is going to win young people and minorities have to come out big time. If not oh well.......

[Nicholas_J]

10. Other polls indicate that

Democrats are more engaged and motivated to vote than Republican are this time around. A poll done over the last few days indicated that a lot of Republicans are not fired up about voting this time around, and not very enthusiatic about doing so. Which could translate into a percentage of no shows on election day as well.

The fact are that out of all age groups, Kerry has his largest percentage of support among peple who are older than 50. This group's percentage support of Kerry is getting close to the 70 percent mark, while the support of people under thirty is Kerry's next strength, in the upoe fifties in the average of polls, Then the people between

Oddly enough, it is the group between 30 and 50 where Kerry has the least support, and Bush the most.

People older than 50 have the highest percentage of actual voters, and it slips as you go down in age. But older voters tend to vote a lot more often. Bush's ideas on Social Security, and Medicare have alientated a rather large portion of older voters, (those retired, and those about to).


Anyway, it may not be as necessary for the young to come out in great numbers to win, as the high level of voting in the other age group he is supported by balances for that in a big way, as it is the baby boomer generation that falls into that age group, and they are far greater in number than the below thirty crowd.

[molly]

11. Thanks, Nick - great news!