Don't worry about the polls this is why

[Thrill]

in my opinion.

The bottom line is. If Kerry is going to win.... young people and minorities have to come out big time. If they don't oh well.........

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. I Agree!

[DaveinMD]

2. also

these polls were done before Kerry's counteroffensive. I'd be interested to see some new polls conducted after that counter attack.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

3. I could smell the flop sweat

when I heard Bush saying that he wanted the 527s stopped. Of course he does. The MoveOn ads, which tell the TRUTH, are hurting him. He is frightened of facing ordinary American citizens who want to have their very valid questions answered. I have yet to personally meet anyone who is backing Bush-if they are, they aren't talking.

[nofanofbush]

5. I thought ...

MoveOn was a PAC,not a 527.

[devinsgram]

4. That is exactly what is going to happen.

I bet their will be a larger percentage of people voting this year than any other time in history. People are so tired of what is going and they just want to get back to the good old days, you know the Clinton days.

I have no fear at all that we will win and polls right now are just that polls that really don't mean anything at this time.

I liked the way Air America's Morning Sedition put it this morning.
Say you fill a pool with a bunch of marbles (red, blue, green and yellow). Now you take a shovel full out of the pool and you get so many red, so many yellow, so many blue and so many green. Now take another shovel full out and I bet you will get a different number for each of the colors from the first time. That's how polls work, each time you take a poll you get a sampling and each time that sampling will be different. Add into that the time of day taken, day of week and so on. There are so many variables that I do not pay any attention to any of these polls. There is still about 2 months and a lot can change either way.

But I still feel very confident.

[Maine-i-acs]

6. Also: Phone polls suck AND blow.

We all screen our calls. And how many calls does a polling organization have to place before 1000 people answer the phone AND complete a survey? They hold less significance than they did 15 years ago, when we all just picked up the phone when it rang.

Plus - Who has switched completely over to cell phones, abandoning their land lines? (Dems)
Who are away from the phone slaving away all day? (Dems)

Do 18-24 year olds answer these polls? No... and they're going to vote in bigger numbers, and lean Dem (Why else did the Jenna and Barbara letter get crafted over the first daughters' signatures? to whore the youth vote.)

Muslims, Jews, and Hispanics are also tipping towawrd Dems in greater numbers.

I'm not gonna get complacent, and I'm watching Diebold. But there's a regime change, I can feel it. It's gonna be ugly but it's gonna get better.

[jefferson_dem]

7. Right-o! Young people can hand Kerry the keys.

I work with flocks of "young adults" and have been watching this generation gap unfold. They are definitely turned off by Chimpy, though i'm not 100% certain why this is the case. I hear anecdotal evidence.

And, statistically speaking, it's Kerry in a total knock-down landslide. Check out the nearly 20 point edge among 18-29 year olds for our guys in the July 30 Newsweek Poll (the most recent available with age demographics).

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen2.htm

So it's TURNOUT. And good news on that note too, as more young voters claim they are headed to the polls this year than ever before. Question those "likely voter" models people!