OK, I'm gonna go waaaaay out on a limb here....

[senseandsensibility]

My prediction: * will get no bounce from his convention. Why? He can only benefit from cheap shots and lies told by surrogates. Even so, there are only so many customers out there for that particular brand of BS. And they've already been convinced by the Swiftboat Liars. We may still get them back, but there are no other people left who are going to go for the Kerry smears.

If he tries to "go positive" at the convention, he'll be equally unsuccessful for the obvious reasons. He has no positive record to run on. He had no positive agenda for the future.

So there you go. If he continues the smears at the convention it will backfire or have no effect. And he can't go positive. I just don't see a bounce for little chimpwad.

[OSheaman]

1. I would like to see that happen

but as you point out, it would be a true deviation from historical standards.

[arbusto_baboso]

2. The RW attack media will make it look like there was a bounce...

by using outlier (outliar?) polls and spinning like a frickin' drill bit.

Count on it.

[jayfish]

23. Hannuty Floated A Trial Balloon Today.

Try this on for size. The recent polls showing Bush leading Kerry, were cooked in Bushes favor. When the convention is over they will release non-cooked polls that will show basically the same numbers. By doing this, the pollsters will have hidden *'s bounce. You can't write this stuff.

Jay

[Chichiri]

3. I predict . . .

. . . he'll get a bounce, but it will be inside the MoE.

[bobbieinok]

4. i think it will be done like a religious tent revival.....

before W's speech the convention/congregation will softly hum the Benny Hinn theme song 'Anointing'

[Pallas180]

5. It doesn't matter he has no record to run on- he'll make a good

record up - dont you get it ..that's what they do. lie. big lies.

And the non reading murican public believes it because they watch
faux news and cnn and scarboro...

[Cronus Protagonist]

22. He does have a good record to run on - wake up people!

He started the Department of faith-based whatever... his attorney general inserted a wedge into the unborn child fight, making a fetus a person with rights, he's been funnelling money into all the swing states with pork barrel spending and no-bid defense contracts as well as into the coffers of almost every major corporation. He's allowed the media barons to consolidate, expand markets and rake in billions of dollars.

He's clamped down on porn, hookers, euthenasia, stem cells, gays, pregnant women, welfare, immigration and pot smokers. He's given people tax cuts and successfully made the poor and middle class think they will benefit in the long run. He's loosened environmental regulations so that factories can produce more goods cheaper and keep the profits. He's refused to enforce existing regulations that he didn't like and issued dozens of executive orders to allow all kinds of favors to friends.

And he has a multi-billion dollar media that is hell bent on making him appear to have the capability to rise from the dead.

Oh, and he kicked some Ay-rab ass in retaliation for 9/11 and is hankering after some more.

Just because you don't like the effects doesn't mean he doesn't have a record to run on.

Swiftboat Veterans for Bush - TRUTH!!!

JFK - Drop Bush Not Bombs! - FUCK BUSH
http://brainbuttons.com/home.asp?stashid=13

[canuckybee]

6. I am terrified that Cheney

will stand up and say he has to leave the ticket because of the gay issue. Paranoia has become my middle name.

[maumcc1]

7. Bush is not a great speaker

I think the convention will actually hurt Bush. Haven't you ever noticed that when he has a major speech his ratings go down? Even the stock market tanks. No master of words is he.

[senseandsensibility]

9. You don't like *'s speaking style?

You're very perceptive for a newbie. Welcome to DU! Sounds like we share a pathological dislike of the idiot's speaking style, and I hope others do, too.:hi:

[Cronus Protagonist]

8. Not at all. He will get at LEAST 10 points increase ffrom it

1/ He's the incumbent and they will be celebrating his record

2/ He has the support of the media

3/ They will be spending millions of dollars on ads and merchandise

4/ Any successful incumbent would be at least 10 points ahead of his rival at this point, and to expect anything less for Bush is shooting yourself in the foot

And lastly, ask yourelf why you're lowering expectations for him? Who benefits from that?

Swiftboat Veterans for Bush - TRUTH!!!

JFK - Drop Bush Not Bombs! - FUCK BUSH
http://brainbuttons.com/home.asp?stashid=13

[senseandsensibility]

10. I must quibble with your characterization

of chimpwad as a successful incumbent. Also, this post is not spin. It is the opposite. It is my true opinion written for an informed audience of DUers. Stupid, easily influenced people won't even read it, so why try to fake people out?

[Cronus Protagonist]

15. I did not say your post was spin and you did not answer my question

That's OK, though. I didn't take it personally.

Again, who benefits from your lowering expectations, and why are you doing that?

Swiftboat Veterans for Bush - TRUTH!!!

JFK - Drop Bush Not Bombs! - FUCK BUSH
http://brainbuttons.com/home.asp?stashid=13

[ALago1]

11. The way I read your post...

...it sounds like in your heart of hearts you don't believe what you just said for a second. I sincerely doubt that he will get 10 points but understand the necessity of raising expectations.

[maumcc1]

12. successful incumbent?

You've got to be kidding....

[Cronus Protagonist]

13. If he weren't a successful incumbent

What is he? A failed incumbent who gave his base almost everything they wanted? You need to take off these Democratic lenses and look at it like you know nothing about what's been going on other than we had a war and Bush is the man who ran it and kicked some rag-head ass. That's where he is with apolitical people, which shows in the fact that despite all the things he's done badly, this is still a close horse-race.

He should be riding high in the polls right now, and since he's not he has a lot of room for bounce. He should be in the lead over Kerry by at least 10 percentage points at this stage of the game and he's not, hence he will gain a lot after all the free media blitz and multi-million dollar promotions of the convention.

If he doesn't see at least a 9% bounce and lead Kerry by at leasst 10% after the convention, he will be a failed president, but right now, he's a successful incumbent with slightly low polls that have a lot of room for bounce.

Swiftboat Veterans for Bush - TRUTH!!!

JFK - Drop Bush Not Bombs! - FUCK BUSH
http://brainbuttons.com/home.asp?stashid=13

[Jackpine Radical]

16. He's a masterful politician, after all.

Never lost a debate and all that. Oh, yeah--anything less than a 20 point bounce would be a great disappointment.

[Cronus Protagonist]

21. No need to go that far, but he should be at least 10 points ahead NOW

And he's not, so he has room for a BIG bounce and ALL the mediawhores will be working their asses off to make sure that happens.

Again, anything less than 9% will be a miserable failure.

Swiftboat Veterans for Bush - TRUTH!!!

JFK - Drop Bush Not Bombs! - FUCK BUSH
http://brainbuttons.com/home.asp?stashid=13

[Doosh]

14. will pundits tear apart the GOP after every speech???

that's a sure way to neutralize any bump, remember Ralph Reed, Brit Hume, Fred Barnes etc just bashing the Dems during and after the convention.

[Cronus Protagonist]

20. Exactly

Bush will have all the pundits swooning over him, telling us his shit tastes like chocolate and his eyes radiate Jesus's love to all who would listen.

If he doesn't get at least a 9% bounce, he's toast.

Swiftboat Veterans for Bush - TRUTH!!!

JFK - Drop Bush Not Bombs! - FUCK BUSH
http://brainbuttons.com/home.asp?stashid=13

[CornField]

17. I will completely agree with you and

I think, unfortunately, we will hit 1,000 US soldiers dead in Iraq during the convention. (Up to 973 as of today)

[seabeyond]

18. raising hand me me, i have another

bushco's always, given the oppotunity, totally consistantly shoot themselves in the foot, or given enough rope hang themselves

[zacho]

19. Bounce

I wonder how much of the media coverage will be to: Is this convention necessary? If the protests can paint the RNC as unwelcome guests having an unnecessary party, Bush will struggle afterwards when the Democrats can rip him apart about no convention bounce.