State level polls show Swift Vets have mainly polarized the electorate

[shockingelk]

A lot of us here have contented that the Swift Boat Vets for (Bush)'s effort has likely only served to further polarize the electorate and has driven voters away from Bush if anything. To confirm the hypothesis, one would have to show that since the group's efforts have become popularized, states in which Bush already leads had seen an increased lead and states who already supported Kerry had shown a like increase.

To summarize the method I used to test the hypothesis, I found the difference between Bush and Kerry preference numbers on a state level and compared them to the change between the most recent poll and the most recent poll on or prior to August 5 - the day Swift Boat Vets for Truth aired their first ad. The polls had to be conducted by the same entity.

There are 31 states for which poll data is available to make the analysis:

• Kerry gained ground or stayed even in 11 states in which he currently leads: OR, NY, WA, NH, PA, IA, NM, WI, MN, TN, and NV


• Kerry lost ground in 5 states which Kerry currently leads: MD, IL, CT, MI, CA,


• Kerry gained ground in the two states which are currently tied: CO and MO.


• Bush lost ground in 5 states in which he currently leads: FL, VA, NC, IN, OK


• Bush gained ground or stayed even in 8 states in which he currently leads: AR, OH, WV, AZ, SC, KY, GA, AL

In other words, the hypothesis bore out: Since the first Swift Boat Vets ad came out, Bush generally pulled more ahead in states which favor him, and the same for Kerry. Those changes are greater than any movement within "tossup" states.

The full results, (which don't include polls released today) sorted in different ways appear here.