I understand the extremist Palin pick! ... I think

[demo dutch]

Sarah Palin – A clear “Rove” choice meant to appease the rightwingers AND an attempt to energize the rightwing YOUTH vote to offset the Obama YOUTH vote.

1) The Youth vote.
The youth vote has generally been progressive and I think they are firmly in Obama’s camp. The RW youth vote would never have gone for Obama anyway but with Palin they WILL be motivated to vote for McCain.

Conclusion: I don’t see a loss to Obama but do see gain for McCain.
Question is who more motivated to show up at the polls? And how many RW youth votes are we talking???

2) The Hillary voter
Was predominately fueled by the Dem base: i.e. Blue colar voters, Latino voters, Jewish voters, Dem women and older voters.

I think we can safely say that the majority of the Dem voters will come “home” to Obama.
However we may lose some voters, but I don’t think that female Democrats would identify with Palin’s extreme views on the major issues. I would dare to say older Dem voters feel good about Biden and will be scared away by the complete lack of experience by Palin incase McCain kicks the bucket. Some soccer moms will feel uncomfortable about Palin's lack of experience but to some she will appeal. (remeber they voted for GW as well)

Conclusion: A gain for Obama, some gain for McCain.

3) Will it boil down the Independents?
Will those leaning McCain, buy into extreme right wing views dressed up in a skirt?
AND
Will those leaning Obama for the most part stay away from Palin because of the experience factor
OR
will racism outweigh the complete lack of Palin’s experience and extreme right wing views?

or will Rove's plan backfire like it did in 2006