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Gore got more votes than Bush last time. There are Bush voters who will vote for Kerry this time. How many Gore voters will be voting for Bush this time? Have you heard of any? Kerry is poised to win the popular vote by an even wider margin. Why don't the polls show that?
Polls are barely scientific. You know, sometimes I win when I go to the casino. Yet the odds are never in my favor. A small sample has a hard time reflecting realities on the ground. They get better as the election gets closer, but are next to useless in a close election. That said, the Swifties are definitely showing up in the polls, but my gut feeling is that Kerry went from a 10 point lead to a 5 point lead.
Also, the campaign doesn't start until after the RNC. Right now, the RNC holds infinite possibilities for the Republicans. A week from now, it will provide some finite bounce for B*.
If we are still talking about the Swifties in late October, that won't be good. These guys need to be slammed HARD in September.
These swing voters are a curious lot, though. The president is essentially chosen by the least informed citizens. With these people, negative ads work like a charm. They need to get these messages -
SBV are liars B* is a doofus B* is a liar Neo-cons are running the Pentagon Iraq war was bungled B* is a divider, not a uniter B* cares about the super-rich, but doesn't care about you
If only some of them get the message, and turn out on our side is as high as it needs to be (consider how PISSED our base is), some poll in late August isn't worth shit.
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