Why you shouldn't stress about polls right now

[JPJones]

Gore got more votes than Bush last time. There are Bush voters who will vote for Kerry this time. How many Gore voters will be voting for Bush this time? Have you heard of any? Kerry is poised to win the popular vote by an even wider margin. Why don't the polls show that?

Polls are barely scientific. You know, sometimes I win when I go to the casino. Yet the odds are never in my favor. A small sample has a hard time reflecting realities on the ground. They get better as the election gets closer, but are next to useless in a close election. That said, the Swifties are definitely showing up in the polls, but my gut feeling is that Kerry went from a 10 point lead to a 5 point lead.

Also, the campaign doesn't start until after the RNC. Right now, the RNC holds infinite possibilities for the Republicans. A week from now, it will provide some finite bounce for B*.

If we are still talking about the Swifties in late October, that won't be good. These guys need to be slammed HARD in September.

These swing voters are a curious lot, though. The president is essentially chosen by the least informed citizens. With these people, negative ads work like a charm. They need to get these messages -

SBV are liars
B* is a doofus
B* is a liar
Neo-cons are running the Pentagon
Iraq war was bungled
B* is a divider, not a uniter
B* cares about the super-rich, but doesn't care about you

If only some of them get the message, and turn out on our side is as high as it needs to be (consider how PISSED our base is), some poll in late August isn't worth shit.

[liberal N proud]

1. I agree, but the doofus has a propaganda machine like no other.

The media seems hell bent on re-electing this moron.

[JPJones]

2. We have not yet begun to fight. The campaign starts on Friday morning.

After the RNC, Kerry plus the DNC plus 527's have well over $100,000,000 to spend to get the message out. And WE ALL must get the message out to our friends and neighbors.

[devinsgram]

5. True, but

more and more are turning to the Internet and other sources for their news. CNN's ratings are falling and will continue to fall. The idiots who love * will always turn to Faux for their news. MSNBC is starting to come around, although being owned by GE still presents a problem.

More and more people are tuning into Air America, which I stream almost 24-7, and there are re pukes listening too! I get such a kick out of them when they call in to try and spout their crap, which they then get sent away crying with their tails between their legs.

Take heart, * and his murdering co-horts will soon be gone.

[underpants]

3. W could have the first post-convention DIP

The RW and their friends in the media trumpeted the ABC/WaPo poll around the Dem convention for weeks even though it was way outside of the acceptable norms the other polls were showing. So now the LATimes and NBC/WSJ have W ahead, barely. No big deal. W has to come out sooner or later and say what he is GOING to do and list his accomplishments...........uh yeah.

Kerry should stay positive and repeatedly ask "What are you going to do President Bush?" "What have you done?"

W has no answers for either and the people are tired of the negatives.

"EVerything changed after 9/11" in this case applies but Rove is still calling from the old playbook.

[JPJones]

4. I think this will be controlled by events

If the convention proceeds uneventfully, B* will get a few point bounce, based on faux patriotism.

I think that is a good thing, it will light up our base. Everyone on our side will work much harder.

In reality, B* being up in the polls a few points doesn't reflect the passion on our side.

At Home Depot yesterday (yeah, I know), I was parked next to a pickup truck with a "Nothing Accomplished" bumpersticker. Next to that, an SUV with a Kerry sticker. There were no W stickers that I could see. And I live in a swing state.

[Guaranteed]

6. Why do people keep saying that they're affecting the polls?

The media keeps showing the same three polls from the past two weeks. There are TONS of polls out there, but the media is picking out those that show Bush having a razor-thin lead.