New TIME Poll Via Drudge-click

[DemocratSinceBirth]

www.drudgereport.com

AWOL - 46%


Kerry- - 44%


Nader - 5%


W/O Nader


AWOL -46%


Kerry -46%

A couple of points.... Nader is never going to reach 5% without being on more state ballots... Does anybody know how many state ballots that megalomaniac is on?

Polls in 00 consistently showed AWOL doing better in polls than he actually did or was doing.....

Hold on to your seats, boys and girls, this is a going to be a close race... This will be more like 80 than 92 when Clinton got a nice lead after his convention and never surrendered it... In 80 Carter and Reagan traded leads into late into October....

[elperromagico]

1. I believe Nader is on 15 ballots right now,

with others being either contested or certified.

I heard the figure on C-SPAN... I could have misheard it, of course.

[okieinpain]

2. this is good news. with all of the crap that kerry has had dumped

on him the last couple of weeks. that he is still within the margin of error is pretty damn cool. and this is even with nut case nader getting 5%, what gets me is with him out kerry only gets a 2% bump. so 3% of nader supporters are saying they aren't going to vote.

[oasis]

3. Kerry's going to get his ad campaign going now that the money restraints

are off.

[CityDem]

9. Are you sure

Kerry accepted federal funds for the election the day after he was nominated. He has been free to spend those funds during the general election campaign. Before the swiftees starting smearing him, Kerry was going to rely on the DNC and 527's for ads in August. Unfortunately, he has had to spend money in August to counter these charges.

[Yavin4]

4. I Believe That Nader Is Down To His Hardcore Support

The people who support Nader at this point are not going to go for Kerry. I also believe that these polls are way overstating Nader's support. If he didn't get 5% of the vote in 2000 when he was on all 50 states, then how can he get 5% when he's only on 15 ballots?

I think that the race is in a dead heat, and that's not good for Bush. Incumbents do not traditionally win close elections. It's either a decisive victory or a defeat.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. I Have Been Calling This Race A Pickem For A Long Time...

Alot of DUers feel the Swift Boat brouhaha has hurt Kerry and I agree but I disagree with the amount of damage and the number of votes he lost as a result of it....

One out of approximately four people believe the charges and most of them were AWOL supporters... By believing the charges about Kerry's service it makes them feel better about voting for a c-o-w-a-r-d...

[bluestateguy]

5. Take off half of the Nader vote and give it to Kerry

That's the real poll result. He won't be on enough ballots to poll that well and that's just sour grapes from a handful of lefties who will quietly vote for Kerry in November, but aren't real happy about it.

[tedoll78]

6. How I see the race right now:

1-
Most polling has underestimated Dem turnout. Given 2000's trends (where most polls had Gore down by ~5%), if we're a few points behind, I'll be able to stay sane and hopeful through Election Day.

2-
Dems are more fired-up in 2004 than they were in 2000. A recent poll (I don't remember who did it) asked Dems if they were "excited" to vote for our candidate this year. The result? The 2004 percentage answering "Yes" to this question was twice as high as 2000's percentage. (BTW.. our party is also marginally more excited than the GOP is, according to that same poll.)

3-
Even with that relatively "low" excitement level in 2000, we still turned-out a great number of voters. With ACT, the Media Fund, MoveOn, George Soros, organized labor, etc all helping this year on GOTV operations (on an unprecedented scale, BTW) our turnout should be even nicer. Add on top of that the excitement factor.

4-
Nader will not be on all of the state ballots. If we get 1/3 of his voters, that's a nice padding to our percentages.

5-
Undecideds will break 2-to-1 for Kerry. This is yet another place where if we're down by 3 or 4% on October 31, we can still have a good deal of hope going into Election Day.

6-
How many new voters will show-up? We have any number of factors going on here. Russell Simmons' organization is getting new voters ready. The Howard Stern Factor is also still a mystery (although I recall a poll of his listeners with Kerry having a 20% lead over Bush about 2 months ago). Whispers of a draft could also propel under-30 turnout not seen since 1992.

7-
Events are a wild card, but we know of two that are coming. They won't help Kerry, but they will hurt Bush. The first, sadly, is the 1000th US GI death in Iraq. The media will not be able to whitewash over this; it'd be way too blatantly biased to do so. This will force another round of introspection onto the Iraq War and the policies around it.
The second event that we know of will be the home release of F9/11. Lots of people rent movies. And even if it doesn't spur many new voters, it will help maintain the aforementioned excitement level that our party currently has.

I'm not going to be Pollyanna-ish.. there are tons of things that could go wrong. Kerry could make a mis-step. Bush could release a horribly dishonest commercial, with the media providing him plenty of cover. I'm just pointing-out reasons to still maintain a healthy amount of hope. If we give-up hope, our drive to work hard for a victory falters. We can't have that happening.

[mfritz]

8. "Including Nader in National Trial Heats Is Now Utterly Preposterous"

Check out this post by Chris Bowers over at MyDD: http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/8/28/13223/7464#readmore

excerpt:
"Ralph Nader is now officially off the ballot in thirteen states: AZ, CA, GA, ID, IN, IL, MD, MI, MO, OK, NC, SC and TX. While thirteen states may not seem like a lot, these states tend to be rather large, and actually make up 42.8% of the population of the entire United States. These thirteen states gave Nader 32.9% of his vote in 2000. When all is said and done, the former number will probably pass 60%, and the latter will probably pass 50%.

By contrast, right now Nader only looks good to make the ballot in 18 states: AK, AR, CO, CT, DE, IA, KS, ME, MS, MT, NV, NJ, NY, OH, SD, TN, WV and WY. However, these states only make up 25.6% of the national population, and provided Nader with 29.4% of his support in 2000. Thus, with 19 states and DC remaining where Nader's ballot access is uncertain, Nader had been disqualified from state ballots that make up a greater percentage of the national population and a greater percentage of his 2000 vote than state ballots where he looks good to qualify."

My own view: I also doubt any likely voter polls. Democrats are energized like never before and their turnout will be significantly higher than past elections.