You heard it here first, folks: a hurricane will maim Bush's bounce.

[tedoll78]

What timing! Is Mother Nature trying to vote this year?

Hurricane Frances is coming. It has a great chance of following Andrew's path. It also has a great chance of being a Category 5 when it hits. All of the forecasts I've seen have it not turning northward to follow the eastern seaboard. All of the forecasts I've seen have it hitting Florida sometime late this upcoming week.. Friday or Saturday.



Let's assume that the hurricane is projected to go through Daytona. We've seen what the big 3 cable news networks do in such a scenario; it's pretty much wall-to-wall coverage with the media camped-out at the landfall site. Footage of crashing waves, gusts of wind, backed-up traffic on the highways, people clearing-out shelves at the grocery store, homeowners nailing plywood over their windows.. we've all see the formula for this coverage before.

The networks begin to herald the hurricane about 36 hours before landfall. That would place the coverage to begin around Thursday afternoon, on average. Right before Bush's big speech. We saw the coverage for Charley. This is a big "Ouch" for the Chimp.

(note.. I don't mean to downplay the human stake here; my own family is in the projection cone. But it's a political forum, so I see this as appropriate.)

Then Bush comes on and gives his speech. But post-speech coverage and commentary on the networks will be competing with.. whoa! Flying debris! Hmm.. if you're a cable news producer, do you go with the talking heads, or do you go with the flying houses?

Funny thing.. I've always prayed for a small hurricane to hit the Florida panhandle on Election Day. Still, this should be interesting..

[Droopy]

1. Damn, bro, I don't think you should be wishing hurricanes

on people small or otherwise. I hope this hurricane sweeps north and never sees land fall. Those storms are devastating when they hit shore. People's lives are at risk. I would rather see the Kerry folks rip apart the RNC, not some natural disaster.

[1monster]

2. Really. I'm just fifty miles up the road from Daytona and I don't want to

have my home demolished by a storm.

I don't want people killed and lives destroyed.

I don't want to have to leave my pets (six adult cats, four kittens, and one dog) behind because there are on shelters that take animals around here.

I don't want this to happen to anyone else either.

[uncle ray]

34. life's dangerous, don't like it, buy a bubble to live in.

or move out of florida, it's not the posters damn fault you live in a hurricanes path any more than it's his fault i live near a dry wooded mountain that could easily burn.

[tedoll78]

4. I knew I'd get knocked for my post..

The "lives at risk" preaching is trite. This being a political forum, the timing of such a weather event could have political implications. Thus, I see it as a fair topic to be brought-up. As far as Frances is concerned, I'm just reporting the facts. If I could snap my fingers and make it dissipate, I would.. because I'd love to see Kerry obliterate the Chimp on his own.

I don't really wish a hurricane for Election Day. A day-long downpour in the panhandle would more than please me. Just enough to, ahh, "dampen" turnout in the area, lol..

[Joe the Revelator]

5. Where are you from?

I have to believe that you outside of the hurricane belt, because those of us within it would not wish one of these storms on ANYBODY regardless of politics.

[tedoll78]

6. New Orleans.

.

Do you have anything of substance to say about the meat of my original post.. that being about news cycle timing? Or are you going to whine..?

[Cronus Protagonist]

13. Hey there... watch out...

This is DU! We'll whine off topic as much as we want! :)

Your prediction that the weather will dominate or at least compete for air time is, of course, correct and true. And it's literally a godsend for most of the good people in the world.

Being an act of God, let's all hope and pray that no one has to lose shelter, life or limb over it. It could just brush the coast and still have the same effect on the political news cycle.

Swiftboat Veterans for Bush - TRUTH!!!

Lick Laura's Bush - Drop Bush Not Bombs! - FUCK BUSH
http://brainbuttons.com/home.asp?stashid=13

[Droopy]

7. Since when are people's lives trite?

It is a fact that these storms kill people. How would you like to be in the path of this storm? I bet the last thing you'd be thinking about is politics.

[tedoll78]

8. People being killed? That's a big "duh."

We all know that.

(let me repeat myself.. again)

This being a politically-themed forum, I thought we'd be able to ponder whether or not this event's timing will effect this election.

For future reference.. are we allowed to discuss how disasters affect elections? /s

[Onlooker]

9. It's your tone that's a bit strange

Yeah, the hurricane will certainly distract people in some key areas from the Republican National Convention, and that's good, but it will also make people more vulnerable, giving Bush the opportunity to play on their fears. Worse yet, the hurricane will disrupt the lives and physically harm (or even kill) many people. The people who are most at risk are probably older, poorer, or more infirm than the average person. The better news would be the for the hurricane to go away and for Republican Convention to go badly.

[funky_bug]

24. Are votes trite?

Cause it's awfully hard for the undecided to give a rat's ass, when they're without electricity, food, and shelter.

It's not whining - it's fear and concern. Oh hey, I've got an idea... wouldn't it be GREAT for the election if another thousand military personnel lost their lives in Iraq this week? Oh.. no, wait... how about this... a group of radical conservatives bombs an abortion clinic and several doctors, nurses and patients are covered in third degree burns... no WAIT I've got it... on second thought, I think I've made my point.

[LisaL]

26. mother nature

doesn't really care about what we wish, does it?

[Joe the Revelator]

3. Politics or not...

lets hope this monster of a storm doesn't make landfall.



Honestly, what a stupid, mean spirited thread.

[Eurobabe]

10. all eyes glued to the weather channel

sorry RNC. This is what happens when you fvck with mother nature! Thanks for the mercury, BTW.

[PCIntern]

11. The guy's just being honest...

look, we all have to admit that occasionally our minds wander to the horrific - and then we repress these ideas and move on. He's making a valid point, but I think the praying for a hurricane is not exactly PC, especially if you live on a coastline. He just wants to see * pre-empted in the 'worst' way.

One of the problems with message boards and the e-mail and net in general is that we post often without giving full thought to the ramifications of the tone and language we use. I've personally hit the 'send' button and thoght many times - "Did I phrase that right, or is it gonna be misinterpreted?"

...also, please don't say that I'm defending his position - I'm just saying that he's being honest with his feelings and believe you me, Mr. Rove would wish the same on us, so turnabout's fair play.

I just wouldn't want to be the one making the original post!

[tedoll78]

12. To be absolutely crystal clear..

I'm in no way praying for Frances to hit any land anywhere at any time. I just gave the facts and then speculated as to how the media would probably cover it. If that offended anyone, I offer no apology.. people will have to just live with it, as it's a fact of life.

The only time I wished was for the small Election Day panhandle hurricane. And that was an overstatement. If that offended, I offer apologies.

[PCIntern]

14. Did you not write that you prayed

for a small hurricane to hit the panhandle on election Day?

This is my point: people write stuff they really may not mean to say. Or maybe they do...

[HysteryDiagnosis]

17. Kyoto

Not that I agree with the global warming thingy.... but what if they are right?? I know that junior believes that G_d is in control of all things.... and that if a million people get wiped by an increased regularity of extreme storm conditions.... well then that is just his will. But... what if that isn't how it comes down? What if people are here to warn us... just like the guy with the firetruck, the boat.. and then the helicopter during the flood story?? A smart course of action considers all the possible outcomes.. then prepares for them... it doesn't just pretend that the inconvenient ones don't exist.

http://www.junkscience.com/news3/lewis.htm
>>But, Administration officials claim, that is not the "smart" policy they're proposing. Through flexible market mechanisms like emissions trading, America will be able to pay others to reduce their emissions for a fraction of what we'd have to pay to reduce our own. In addition, federal R&D support for energy efficiency improvements and renewable energy technologies will further reduce compliance costs. This explanation is totally unpersuasive.<<

[snippy]

18. Republicans pray for hurricanes to destroy cities. Very evil.

Very republican.

[rullery]

15. Living in Fort Myers as I do,

the last thing we need here is another hurricane. We are still picking up the pieces from Charley, and it will be a long time before our neighbors in Punta Gorda are able to rebuild their community. I pray the new hurricane will turn north and spend itself harmlessly at sea. Many hurricanes do that.

On the other hand, I would not mind at all ceding the panhandle to Alabama. In that case Florida would be a reliably democratic state. Still I think we will win our state for Kerry, if we can keep Jeb Bush and his pals from stealing the election - again!

[Junkdrawer]

16. The national media moved off the Hurricane Charley story quickly...

Hurricane Andrew received FAR more sustained coverage - and it was during a presidential election.

I wonder what has changed? :think:

[Jacobin]

20. I noticed that too

Charley did a whole lot of damage. Any other time would have had lots of coverage for at least a week.

The story line on this one was "Jeb didn't let the hurricane do much damage. Praise the Bush Dynasty"

[Cha]

31. I'd be pissed if I were a Charley victim and

the media wasn't covering our story.

[kstewart33]

19. You're right tedoll78

The potential hurricane does have political implications that merit attention. Thanks for the post.

[Walt Starr]

21. You could be talking about a "Perfect Political Storm", too

Scum Bag Liars for Bush backlash coupled with lower coverage could actually result in a DROP rather than anything resembling a bounce.

Just wanted to add, I read your post as mostly being an unemotional analysis of the timing and how it may play out politically.

When analysis is done, detaching oneself from the horrific consequences is a necessary component.

[kodi]

22. of course it called "Frances," you just can't trust the French

france's intent has been clear for a while. to disrupt bush

:evilgrin:

[funky_bug]

23. You MUST be joking

As someone who just lived through the direct path of Charley, I cannot imagine wishing for a hurricane, nor can I fathom someone else wishing for the destruction of others' life and property.

This is JUST the kind of post that will get linked to Free Republic. Mark my words. Way to show love for humanity!!!

[Walt Starr]

25. I don't think he was wishing for a hurricane

in any sense other than that last sentence about a small hurricane hitting the panhandle on election day.

I think the analysis of what effect such a hurricane in the timing projected could have is a legitimate discussion.

[funky_bug]

28. And that small sentence

is enough to insight a rebuttal on behalf of those who will be negatively effected by such an "answered prayer." You know, I'll admit when Charley swept through here that I took some time to consider the political ramifications. Within hours, people were discussing the lack of help they were receiving, save the helpful neighbor. I did consider what that would mean, come election day. That being said, "praying for a hurricane" and hoping one strikes us again is mean-spirited and stinks of "compassionate conservatism." There can hardly be a soley political discussion when peoples' lives are so adversely effected by the topic at hand. Would I give up my home and my electricity to see Bush out of the big house? Hell yes I would... but I wouldn't ask anyone else to make that sacrifice, and I sure as hell wouldn't rub my hands in glee at the thought... especially if I were well out of harms way and it required no sacrifice on my part.

[Junkdrawer]

29. Hurricanes are a liberal conspiracy...

Look up who invented iodine seeding of clouds...Bernard Vonnegut.

Know who he is? Kurt Vonnegut's brother, that's who.

:tinfoilhat:

[soothsayer]

27. Mother Nature wants * out, too. Hell, the whole world does except some

meatheads in the US.

Let's hope nobody's hurt by this except *'s lil bounce.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. Hmmm

I went to weather.com to see the ten day forecast for Daytona Beach...

No mention of a hurricane...

www.weather.com

type in Daytona Beach...

BTW, if we need a natural disaster to beat AWOL we're doomed...

[demwing]

32. Touchy Subject

My dad lives in Florida, and so does my wife's grandmother. I do not ever wish for them, or for any families, to suffer through a Cat 5 storm.

On the other hand, I wouldn't be sad if mothernature shook us up a bit during the Repuke convention.

The danger of a 2nd Bush administration, and the wars we know that he would bring, would dwarf Frances. I will not pray for the destruction of a natural disaster, but consider this -

If you could trade the 30 or so deaths and the 20 billion in damages caused by Hurricane Andrew in 1992 for the 5 to 10 THOUSAND deaths caused by the Iraq war (Iraqi and coalition) with its 150 Billion price tag, would you?

[Francine Frensky]

33. Actually, this would HELP bush, remember the bounce he got

from the last hurricane?? Also, remember that just hearing that there will be a hurricane, people are more likely to turn on their tvs and see what the latest news is, so you would actually very likely have EVEN MORE people watching chimp's speech, while they wait for the hurricane to hit or while they wait for more news.

I don't see any way it's bad for him.

[fishnfla]

35. Since I live in Daytona, I hope to heck you are wrong!

I understand your point but.....its too far out for prognostications, this thing will hopefully turn out to sea, and if does make landfall along the Carolinas, it'll be later than shrub's speech, as the sucker is moving slow.

[QC]

36. Is there any way I can nominate this thread for the home page?

The Free Republic home page, I mean. Because that's where wishing hurricanes on people actually belongs. Well, there and the 700 Club.

Speaking as someone who actually lives in the Florida panhandle and spent a good bit of time a few weeks back worrying about the strong possibility of two hurricanes hitting the area, I can only say that this is one of the most vile and stupid things I have ever seen posted here.

Discussing the political impact of a hurricane is one thing--we all know the effect that Andrew had on Poppy's campaign. But wishing a natural disaster on people is quite another. And objecting when people do it is not "whining" or being "un-PC." It's what used to be known as common decency.

[Gin]

38. the natural disaster will be if shrub steals the election..if so...we are

all doomed.

[Inland]

37. I hope Bush flees in panic

[Catt03]

39. I live in South Florida

been through a lot of these storms and don't particularly want another one but am not going to move either.

No offense taken.