Defend WI, IA and go after WV, MO, OH, and FL!

[fujiyama]

It looks like that is the way this is shaping up. This is assuming that OR and MN (two close states) are "in the bag", but I really don't see Bush winning these two states this time. I also don't see my home state of MI turning and PA as well.

I haven't seen a non Zogby poll in WV in a while now, but the last poll I saw (about a month ago had Kerry up by three...Another had him up by 6).

I think Bush will have a small lead in some of these states after the convention, but I don't think it's worth worrying about if it's minor (say 3-5 points).

MO has shown Bush with small leads here for a while but with good turn out in urban areas, Kerry has a shot in this state.

OH and FL are the two real toss ups showing conflicting leads. Rasmussen had Kerry up by 2 and this is up 1 since last month. Another poll showed the race tied (forgot the firm).

FL had some big leads for Kerry following the convention. I still think in a free and fair election Kerry should win this state. The demographics shifts are very favorable.

I think IA and WI are Kerry's two weakest states because of several reasons. Bush has put a lot of resources into these states and his visited them repeatedly. WI especially has had some of the wackiest polls I've seen, sometimes showing Kerry up by around 5 and Bush up by the same margin. IA is a similar case but most have had Kerry leading by 1 point or so. Also Nader is on the ballot in both states unfortunately. This will also tighten things up. Why not include OR in this category as well? Nader's status is first of all uncertain. I think the anti war crowd here is so pissed off and the two major cities (Portland and Eugene) are very ABB. The "left coast" will be much bluer (or actually red cuz Kerry's the challenger).

The LA Times polls were disappointing but then again I've heard that LA Times polls aren't very reliable anyways (Cruz Bustamente beating Arnold? They had the recall extremely close too). We shouldn't relax though or become lazy but I see why Kerry isn't freaking out as much as others. I still am skeptical of his strategy of not attacking Shit Boat Liars immediately, but Kerry's a skilled politician and he's in good shape as he enters the RNC. Overall Bush is defending more states than Kerry is (did anyone expect VA and CO as toss ups?). Bush doesn't have a very good chance in picking up the big prizes Gore won last time (MI and PA).

[sandnsea]

1. OR is "in the bag"

At least as of today. I see no signs of life for the Bush campaign at all. The only way they could win here is with rural areas and I'm rural. If they don't get us, it's a landslide. Things could change, but I'm just not seeing it right now.

[roseBudd]

2. The strategy in Ohio should be

Increasing the African American vote,

the college student vote

the gay vote (especially young gays)

the secular youth vote

This is our base. I would argue that this base has more room to grow because of typically lower voting rates than the GOP base which is christian conservatives.

The other advantage our base has is it is urban, densely populated and easy to interact with. Our base can be found on city streets, concerts, college campuses, bus stops, homeless shelters and social services agencies. If you live ina major city in Ohio or neara college campus they are the people you pass everyday as you work and as you play. Our base is the cashier that bagged your groceries, the men who are waiting for work outside any urban temporary work agency, people at bus stops.

Young Voter Alliance and MoveOn are reportedly operating in Ohio but a grassroots strategy to just get out and make contact with our base to motivate and register as many bodies as possible. Peer to peer works best and is a really effective use of time. I got 4 new base voters just while waiting for my carryout order at a restaurant near a college campus.

We don't need Kerry to come here as much as we need to connect, motivate and register OUR base. Our base already disaproves of Bush we just need them to take the next step and do something about it.

Rusebud